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Szegedist
03-31-2013, 07:05 PM
Oldish story, but I came upon it when looking for Northern Eurozone information:


Economic expert Stefan Bruckbauer has warned that Austria might be forced to reintroduce the Schilling if European Union (EU) leaders fail to send a clear signal to the financial markets this weekend.

Speaking ahead of the summit of EU state and government chiefs, the Bank Austria (BA) economist said Austria might be too weak to sustain in a Northern Eurozone were the Eurozone split into two parts.

Some economists like Hans-Werner Sinn have spoken out in favour of separating the current group of 17 EU members which use the Euro into two – an economically healthy group of states situated in the north and a group consisting of troubled countries like Greece and Italy.

Bruckbauer told the Kurier today (Weds) it was impossible to rule out that the Eurozone failed to exist in its current form if EU decision-makers presented credible strategies and solutions to the current crisis at their meeting in Brussels, Belgium, this weekend. Bruckbauer warned that Austria might be led towards reintroducing the Schilling – which was replaced by the Euro in 2002 – if the leaders of the EU’s 27 member countries did not stop arguing about how to get through the crisis.

The chief economist of BA, which is part of Italy’s UniCredit bank, said Germany would not be strong enough financially to keep Austria in a Northern Eurozone. Bruckbauer claimed that such a scenario would force the small Alpine country to replace the Euro with the Schilling.

Freedom Party (FPÖ) chairman Heinz-Christian Strache called on the government coalition many times to allow an open debate free from any taboos about whether Austria might be better off out of the Eurozone. Social Democratic (SPÖ) Chancellor Werner Faymann and People’s Party (ÖVP) Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger accused Strache of showing willingness to lead Austria into ruin by making such statements. Around one in three Austrians want their homeland to leave the Eurozone, according to surveys.

Karl Aiginger, head of the Viennese Institute for Economic Research (WIFO), warned that a collapse of the Eurozone would be a worst case scenario for Austria. The economist said Austria would find itself on the edge of Europe as far as economic concerns were concerned. He compared the possible situation with geographical circumstances at times when the Iron Curtain still existed.

Aiginger warned from a massive decline of export volumes and soaring jobless rates in Austria if the Eurozone comes to an end. Studies suggest that such events would leave the Eurozone’s current 17 members with costs of 4.5 billion Euros. A collapse of the banking system could not be ruled out, according to experts.

The Austrian government tried to prepare for a potential worsening of the European economy by ordering itself to stick to a debt brake. The coalition of SPÖ and ÖVP planned to create a constitutional debt limit – a tool which should be introduced in all Eurozone states in the opinion of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

SPÖ and ÖVP passed the debt brake draft bill with a simple majority in parliament yesterday after none of the three opposition parties provided support. The FPÖ said it was angered with the government parties for failing to start reforms earlier and without the existence of a debt limit while the Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ) wanted to lower the maximum tax rate by eight per cent to 42 per cent. The SPÖ disagreed with this suggestion. The Greens criticised the coalition for offering precise information on how it planned to lower the budget deficit from 3.9 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) to three per cent in 2020.

http://austrianindependent.com/index.php?id=9691&currPage=&=&print=1

Corvus
03-31-2013, 07:10 PM
Yes I fear Austria is politically and economically too Balkanic influenced to join the Northern powers.
There is too much corruption and money laundering going on.

But reintroducing the Schilling and leaving the EU would still the much better option than to stay in the Eurozone.

Szegedist
03-31-2013, 07:23 PM
Would such a scenario not create greater push for Austria to join Germany?

Baluarte
03-31-2013, 07:25 PM
I don't find the structural causes for saying that Austria can't make it in that article...

Is it a matter of industrial output, labour cost, demogeographical incapacity, deficit of technolgy, unhealthy public finances....?

Is there any annex to it Szeg?

Vasconcelos
03-31-2013, 07:26 PM
Would such a scenario not create greater push for Austria to join Germany?

It kind of looks exactly the opposite.

Corvus
03-31-2013, 07:27 PM
Would such a scenario not create greater push for Austria to join Germany?

Could be the case. I think from a economical perspective it would only be beneficial, because Germany is a real
economical force, they also have a much better working burocratic system and as a result a far better business friendly environment
Austria is also kind of dependent on Germany, because even now we get receive lots of support like export leverage funds, trade agreements, lots of collaboration etc.
If this would not occur, the general situation would be much worse.

Szegedist
03-31-2013, 07:31 PM
After the fall of Communism, the goal of Hungary, at least in the early years of this century was to catch up to Austria, as it was seen as a natural level as to where we should be at. But it seems not everything is so great in Austria after all.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but the economic issues in this region can be traced back to "cough" Saint-Germain"cough" and "cough" Trianon "cough" . Central Europe is still feeling the consequences.

JohnSmith
03-09-2014, 03:37 PM
Austria has a lot bank exposure to Italy, Slovenia, and Hungary, which are in some serious trouble when it comes to sovereign debt. So this is not surprising.

However, the country that is seriously weak and lacks structural reform that no one is talking about is socialist France. Their competitiveness is getting worst from day to day. At least Greece, Italy and Spain are making tough reforms. France must follow.