Azerbaijan says will face Russian soldiers in Karabakh in case of war

[Loki]

Azerbaijan says will face Russian soldiers in Karabakh in case of war (http://www.todayszaman.com/news-308523-.html)

http://cdncms.todayszaman.com/todayszaman/2013/03/01/azeri2.jpg

The Azerbaijani government has stated that if Baku chooses to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict via wide-scale military operations, it will face Russian soldiers rather than Armenian, its neighboring country which currently controls occupied Azerbaijani territories.

“President Ilham Aliyev has always promised a military solution to the [Nagorno-Karabakh] conflict and he still has the issue on the agenda. The option of a military solution is always on the table, but the most important thing is how this kind of operation will be carried out. We need to become much stronger so that if we become involved in combat in Nagorno-Karabakh we can stand up to Russian troops, because that is who we will have to face. Did Armenia occupy our territories? Do you think Armenia's power is sufficient for that?” asked Ali Hasanov, Azerbaijan's deputy prime minister, in a press conference held with a group of Turkish reporters in the capital city of Baku.

Recalling his home city, which is also in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Hasanov said the occupation was accomplished with the military support of Russia. “I saw Russian soldiers get out of tanks and celebrate their victory with champagne.”

Russia is considered the dominant power in the region, seeking to preserve its influence over its former republics and, in particular, the South Caucasus. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has attempted to manipulate the region through protracted conflicts, including Nagorno-Karabakh, a territorial conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia that still remains unsettled.

Azerbaijan lost 20 percent of its territories as a result of the bloody war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s, prompting Turkey to close its border with neighboring Armenia in a sign of solidarity with its ally Azerbaijan. Turkey's isolation of Armenia has subsequently pushed Armenia toward Russia.

Moscow and Yerevan signed a mutual security agreement and Russia is known to be backing Armenia militarily, as its only ally in the region.

While Azerbaijan is developing in economic terms and translating its economic might into military muscle, Russia continues to pursue its policy of domination over Armenia through its notorious economic leverage.

According to diplomatic sources, following the government change in Georgia, a neighboring country that also acts as a buffer zone between Armenia and Russia and as a transit country to deliver Caspian energy resources to Europe, Baku became concerned, as newly elected Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili is reported to be closer to Russia rather than the Western powers President Mikhail Saakashvili is known to be close to.

Moreover, Baku is very concerned about Iran's position in the region, as Tehran is easing the blockade of Armenia by lending a helping hand to Yerevan. Azerbaijan keeps Armenia out of regional projects as part of its policy to keep Yerevan under economic blockade in a bid to push its adversary abandon its intransigent position over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

“If Tehran breaks its ties with Armenia, Yerevan will die of hunger,” Hasanov said to Today's Zaman.

Commenting on the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement process that is currently deadlocked, Hasanov expressed Baku's pleasure with the Turkish position in the region. Noting Turkish support for Azerbaijan, especially in the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Hasanov recalled the speech of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in which he said Turkey will never open its borders with Armenia until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is settled.

According to Ferhad Memmedov, chief of Baku-based Center for Strategic Research (SAM) under the office of the Azerbaijani president, Turkey is not expected put the idea of opening its borders with Armenia into play in a bid to defuse the pressure of Armenians across the world as they plan to mark the 100th anniversary of the 1915 mass killings in two years.

Memmedov argues that opening the borders with Armenia will not push the strong Armenian lobby to abandon their cause seeking recognition of the so-called genocide and instead will bury the chance for Armenians to make any concessions in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

While Baku is not optimistic for the peace talks held under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group between Armenia and Azerbaijan for nearly two decades, neither does it want to abandon the negotiations.

Hasanov complained about the structure of the Minsk Group, which he said has not functioned properly for 20 years. According to Hasanov, a change in the format used by the mediators could keep the conflicting sides busy for another 20 years, similar to the Palestinian and Kashmir problems.

Hasanov said it is impossible to include any of the Turkic republics among the three co-chairs of the 15-member Minsk Group since decisions in the mediating group are taken based on consensus. He also criticized the fact that no Muslim nation is co-chairing the group and that all of them are Christian nations. “On the one hand, we are criticizing the Minsk Group, but on the other hand, we don't leave it,” Hasanov added.

Hasanov believes the US holds the key to the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh: “If the US wants to find the solution to this problem, it should sit down with Russia and solve it. If it cannot do it, then it should take Armenia out of Russia's orbit.”

Hasanov claimed that Washington does not want to damage ties with Russia and won't do what it has done in Georgia. He was referring to steadfast US support for Georgia during the 2008 war with Russia.

Criticizing the international community for remaining silent on Armenia, Hasanov said Armenia, occupying 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory, also has territorial claims in Georgia and Turkey.

Hasanov claimed that Armenians are training terror groups and dispatching them to conflict zones in occupied territories, adding that they are also growing and selling drugs. “The entire international community is aware of this fact.”

[Musso]

I'd firstly be careful of the source of this article '1 March 2013 /CELİL SAĞIR, BAKU' so I wouldn't look at this article as an impartial one (same with Armenian articles).

The notion that Armenians won in the Karabkah War because of Russia is rather ridiculous. Fact of the matter is Russia was helping both sides, mainly through use of mercenaries. When the Russian buddy/ex-KGB chief Aliyev came into power in Azerbaijan, Russian support for Azerbaijan increased. Russia has from the start played both sides, in order to increase its influence in the region. That being said, Armenia and Russia are bound by the CSTO agreement, which means that Russia is to come to the defence of Armenia in case Republic of Armenia is attacked (similar to the NATO treaty).

Also, statements like these shows the low quality of the article:


“If Tehran breaks its ties with Armenia, Yerevan will die of hunger,” Hasanov said

[Loki]

That being said, Armenia and Russia are bound by the CSTO agreement, which means that Russia is to come to the defence of Armenia in case Republic of Armenia is attacked (similar to the NATO treaty).


Interesting. But this probably does not include Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure still part of Azerbaijan?

[Musso]

Interesting. But this probably does not include Nagorno-Karabakh, which is de jure still part of Azerbaijan?

It's not included in the treaty officially, though it's a grey area. Though if the Republic of Armenia is attacked, Russia will be bound to defend.

Interesting Read, From Wikileaks:


The Czech official reportedly told Bhalla that "It is remarkable to what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence. THey are thinking about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a final deal on Shah Deniz II" natural gas field being developed in the Caspian by BP and whose output is sought by Russia and Western energy consumers.

"When I was in Baku recently, they showed me a 3-D topographic map of Armenia, AZ [Azerbaijan], Nagorno [Karabakh]," the Czech related. "You can see very clearly that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with Russian backing, it is a flat path to Baku. The Russians told them during the Georgia war that Georgia could just be the first stop... pretty direct threat. The Azerbaijanis are terrified of this."


And State Department cables also released by Wikileaks made clear that in U.S. assessment, despite the military build-up and threatening rhetoric, Azerbaijan remains incapable of launching a successful military campaign against Armenia.

http://www.reporter.am/go/article/2012-03-31-wikileaks-azerbaijan--terrified--by-potential-armenian-attack

[Hoca]

First goal of Azerbaijan should be to separate Russia from Armenia. The real battle for Azerbaijan will not be fought on the battlefield. Somehow Azerbaijan needs to convince Russia to step aside and let Azerbaijan finish the deal within a couple of days. Another scenario is when Russian federation falls apart. Azerbaijan would immediately capitalize on this opportunity and attack Armenia. Russian influence is getting less by the day. They are loosing Syria soon. Armenia is a burden for them. I wouldn't be surprised they would sacrifise Armenia in return for closer relationship with the Turkics. Russia is already very close with Turkey.

[Loki]

Another scenario is when Russian federation falls apart.

Wishful thinking scenario. Won't happen anytime soon.

[Onur]

First goal of Azerbaijan should be to separate Russia from Armenia. The real battle for Azerbaijan will not be fought on the battlefield. Somehow Azerbaijan needs to convince Russia to step aside and let Azerbaijan finish the deal within a couple of days
Azerbaijan can never do this alone. It`s the Turkey who will do that.

The trade volume between Russia and Turkey surpassed 50 billion dollars per year and Turkey is already a bigger trade partner than any other European states today. When the time comes, Turkey should warn Russia to step aside and they will listen to us for sure to not disrupt our economical relations. Even today, the tiny bankrupt Armenia never worths more than 50 billion dollars for Russia.

[Musso]

First goal of Azerbaijan should be to separate Russia from Armenia. The real battle for Azerbaijan will not be fought on the battlefield. Somehow Azerbaijan needs to convince Russia to step aside and let Azerbaijan finish the deal within a couple of days. Another scenario is when Russian federation falls apart. Azerbaijan would immediately capitalize on this opportunity and attack Armenia. Russian influence is getting less by the day. They are loosing Syria soon. Armenia is a burden for them. I wouldn't be surprised they would sacrifise Armenia in return for closer relationship with the Turkics. Russia is already very close with Turkey.

A couple of days? Azerbaijan can re-take Karabakh in a few days? Have you lost all sense of reality? Read what international military experts are saying about the capabilities.

Russian-Azeri relations have worsened more with Putin in the past year or so. I don't see how Azerbaijan is going to do that. They kicked the Russian military base out of their country, angering the Russians.


The Armenian army also appears to have been reinforced with more advanced versions of Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems. IMINT and Analysis, a U.S. defense newsletter using open-source satellite imagery, reported in October that such systems have been deployed in the last two years in Armenia’s southeastern Syunik province adjacent to Karabakh. The online publication said their sophisticated surface-to-air missiles not only cover the entire Karabakh airspace but can also thwart air travel between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
Armenia is able to stay in an intensifying arms race with oil-rich Azerbaijan mainly because of close military ties with Russia that entitle it to receiving Russian weapons at discount prices or even free of charge. A new Russian-Armenian defense agreement signed in August 2010 commits Moscow to helping Yerevan obtain “modern and compatible weaponry and special military hardware.”

Also Russian-Armenian military industry is going to be based in Armenia:


MOSCOW, February 1 (RIA Novosti) - Russia and Armenia are to establish joint defense enterprises under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the post-Soviet security body's head Nikolai Bordyuzha said on Friday, following a visit to Yerevan in late January.
“The key purpose of my trip there, with a big delegation of Russian arms-industry sector bosses, was to work out measures to integrate Armenia’s military-industrial enterprises with similar activities in Russia,” Bordyuzha said.
“These include establishment of armament repair service centers, joint armor enterprises and air-asset repair enterprises,” he said. “Some eight or nine military-industrial joint ventures are to be created,” Bordyuzha added.
The CSTO's current members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. In December 2012, Uzbekistan officially suspended its CSTO membership.

[Loki]

^^ It looks like bad news for Azerbaijan. As Onur said, Turkey is the only balancing factor in this scenario.

[Musso]

^^ It looks like bad news for Azerbaijan. As Onur said, Turkey is the only balancing factor in this scenario.

Yes, but I doubt Turkey wants to have a war with Russia. Nor Russia with Turkey. Not to forget, Iran has horrible relations with Azerbaijan and supports Armenia. Azerbaijan is surrounded by 2 much more powerful pro-Armenian states.

[Loki]

Yes, but I doubt Turkey wants to have a war with Russia. Nor Russia with Turkey. Not to forget, Iran has horrible relations with Azerbaijan and supports Armenia. Azerbaijan is surrounded by 2 much more powerful pro-Armenian states.

Georgia is there too, though. And you know how much they like the Russians ...

[Musso]

Georgia is there too, though. And you know how much they like the Russians ...

True, but their new government is set to mend ties with Russia and become more moderate. not necessarily pro-russian, but they will be less anti-Russian like Saakashvili was.

New Georgian PM:


But in parallel to it a question arises: is it possible to combine restoration of friendly relations with Russia and at the same time to have good relations with NATO and to aspire towards NATO and to have good relations with the United States and NATO-member states? I think that here Armenia is a good example; Armenia gives a good example for Georgia and it can be a source of envy in positive sense,” he said.

“Armenia is on excellent terms with Russia and has friendly relations with [Russia] while also being on excellent terms with the United States and with other NATO-member states. So I think it’s possible and I think that we have to and I believe that we will combine it,” Ivanishvili said.

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=25654

[Loki]

Saakashvili really was such a fool. An embarrassment for Georgia.

[Musso]

Saakashvili really was such a fool. An embarrassment for Georgia.

was a sell out to US neo-cons/republicans.

[Yalquzaq]

Musso

Yet Russian-Azerbaijani military relations are much larger on scale than that of Russian-Armenian one (of course this is also connected to lack of resources on part of Armenia, but why Russia has no problems with selling Azerbaijan anything it wants?). Maybe you have a meaningful explanation for that?

I like the "bold" part in your quote, Russia has "gifted" old obsolote S-300PT/PS from its own inventory to Armenia, while Azerbaijan has bought S-300PMU2, the latest and most advanced S-300 version, sharing many components with S-400.

And besides that, I haven't even observed any new "gifts" from Russia. The military supplies (including those that are negotiated currently) from Russia to Azerbaijan extends to a wide range of products. Tanks, transport and attack helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, air-defence systems and so on, all of them being the latest products of Russian defence industry. The Russian military supplies to Azerbaijan amounted to nearly $2 billion for the last few years, but what we observe is that Azerbaijan is increasing the military purchases from Russia, and like said to a wide range of products.

[adsız]

Not to forget, Iran has horrible relations with Azerbaijan and supports Armenia. Azerbaijan is surrounded by 2 much more powerful pro-Armenian states.

That is why Iran must be weakened/terminated .

USA / Israel /Azerbaijan / Turkey will do it soon.

[Onur]

Yes, but I doubt Turkey wants to have a war with Russia. Nor Russia with Turkey. Not to forget, Iran has horrible relations with Azerbaijan and supports Armenia. Azerbaijan is surrounded by 2 much more powerful pro-Armenian states.
Yes, a war is something impossible between Russia and Turkey because it eventually turns out to be a WW-3 as no one in the western world desires Russia to have upper hand vs Turkey. Thats is exactly why Russia wont dare to involve to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The most thing they can do would be helping Armenia behind the closed doors but thats it.

Musso, you are living in a dream world as most of the Armenians. Before Azerbaijan, you should look at your own Armenian state`s situation. You are completely surrounded by hostile states around you and most of your borders are closed. You are poor, no energy sources and completely isolated from the outside world and you have no other choice than begging Russia for everything.

When the time comes, Russia wont do any good to you except sending a truck load of milk and bread in the name of not disrupting their relations with Turkey and the western world.

[Musso]

Musso

Yet Russian-Azerbaijani military relations are much larger on scale than that of Russian-Armenian one (of course this is also connected to lack of resources on part of Armenia, but why Russia has no problems with selling Azerbaijan anything it wants?). Maybe you have a meaningful explanation for that?

I like the "bold" part in your quote, Russia has "gifted" old obsolote S-300PT/PS from its own inventory to Armenia, while Azerbaijan has bought S-300PMU2, the latest and most advanced S-300 version, sharing many components with S-400.

And besides that, I haven't even observed any new "gifts" from Russia. The military supplies (including those that are negotiated currently) from Russia to Azerbaijan extends to a wide range of products. Tanks, transport and attack helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, air-defence systems and so on, all of them being the latest products of Russian defence industry. The Russian military supplies to Azerbaijan amounted to nearly $2 billion for the last few years, but what we observe is that Azerbaijan is increasing the military purchases from Russia, and like said to a wide range of products.

The difference is that Azerbaijan pays full price for Russian weapons while Armenia gets the same weapons at free or heavily discounted prices. Plus, you have joint Armenian-Russian defence industry being created, so you will have many weapons being produced right in Armenia. Russia has no problem selling weapons to Azerbaijan, in the end they are not enemies.


That is why Iran must be weakened/terminated .

USA / Israel /Azerbaijan / Turkey will do it soon.

Please grow up. In what fantasy world you must be to seriously believe those countries are going to terminate Iran together. Not even US wants to touch Iran militarily.


Yes, a war is something impossible between Russia and Turkey because it eventually turns out to be a WW-3 as no one in the western world desires Russia to have upper hand vs Turkey. Thats is exactly why Russia wont dare to involve to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The most thing they can do would be helping Armenia behind the closed doors but thats it.

Musso, you are living in a dream world as most of the Armenians. Before Azerbaijan, you should look at your own Armenian state`s situation. You are completely surrounded by hostile states around you and most of your borders are closed. You are poor, no energy sources and completely isolated from the outside world and you have no other choice than begging Russia for everything.

When the time comes, Russia wont do any good to you except sending a truck load of milk and bread in the name of not disrupting their relations with Turkey and the western world.

Russia legally can only intervene if the Republic of Armenia is attacked. And they will do so, if Turkey or Azerbaijan attacks Republic of Armenia, which is seperate from Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.

Surrounded by hostile states? Georgia is not a hostile state to Armenia, we're on good terms with Georgia. Iran is pro-Armenian. Actually, Azerbaijan is surrounded more by pro-Armenian states (Russia + Iran).

One of the reasons I get annoyed by such emotional nationalists like you is that for them everything is black-and-white. Saying things like 'completely isolated from the world' and 'begging Russia for everything' are things that show your incompetence to have a mature, rational discussion. I guess you ignore that companies like Intel are opening offices in Armenia and the IT sector in Armenia is greatly increasing. Or that European companies are investing in the mineral industry in Armenia. Given Armenia's geographic location(landlocked) and situation with its neighbours, our economic state is relatively good given the situation we are in. If we were begging Russia for everything, EU wouldn't be our biggest trading partner. Think before you talk. If you want to have a mature discussion about the geopolitcal/economic situation of the region, be my guest, if you are going to continue with your childish, nationalist rants, then don't waste my time please.

[Anatolian Eagle]

Well the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" is not Armenia, which means no legal Russian intervenation if that "state" is attacked. It's still Azeri territory. Georgia is rather neutral state, but considering Armenia has more close to Russian axis Georgia still has more close relations with Azerbaijan because Georgia still in lines with NATO axis. Iran and Russia would most likely back out "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" together with Armenia, while Turkey and Israel would aid Azerbaijan if Russia or Iran gets involved but I doubt they would get involved directly, unlike Armenia would expect over Karabakh over some treaty.

[Yalquzaq]

The difference is that Azerbaijan pays full price for Russian weapons while Armenia gets the same weapons at free or heavily discounted prices. Plus, you have joint Armenian-Russian defence industry being created, so you will have many weapons being produced right in Armenia. Russia has no problem selling weapons to Azerbaijan, in the end they are not enemies.

Give me list of equipment Armenia ordered from Russian companies. You should either present facts or STFU. The only arms supplies from Russia to Armenia has been obsolote second-hand weapons from Russian inventory. Your delusional.

Right, and thats my point.

[Musso]

Give me list of equipment Armenia ordered from Russian companies. You should either present facts or STFU. The only arms supplies from Russia to Armenia has been obsolote second-hand weapons from Russian inventory. Your delusional.

Right, and thats my point.

S-300 missiles are obsolete second-hand weapons? lol

Within last some monthes Russia has given to Armenia the following weapons and military equipment:

Tank

- BMP-3;
- BMP-2;
- Command post vehicle P-149 based on the BTR-80;
- APC BTR-70/80;

Artillery

- 152 mm howitzer 2A65 "MSTA-B";
- 152 mm gun 2A36 "Hyacinth-B";
- Self-propelled gun 2S3M "Acacia";
- 300 mm, 240 mm and 122 mm rockets;
- 152 mm shells for artillery;
- 125 mm shells for tanks;
- 122 mm artillery shells for the D-30;
- 100 mm ammunition for the guns MT-12;
- Spare parts for artillery;
- Spare parts for artillery gun 2S3M "Acacia";

The air defense system

- Missiles 5B55K, 5B55R 5B55U and for S-300;
- SAM "cube" in the same division;
- 80 mm unguided rockets S-8;
- Controlled air missiles Kh-25ML;
- 57 mm unguided rockets S-5 with a block UB-20-57;
- Missiles R-60M;

- A large number of spare parts for machines and equipment;
- A large number of small arms, ammunition and engineering equipment.

http://en.apa.az/news/186092


EREVAN (RFE/RL)—The Armenian military on Monday reported “significant” arms acquisitions in 2012 and said it will continue to modernize its forces with precision weaponry in the coming years.
“At the beginning of this year we declared that we have acquired new rocket systems capable of neutralizing active [armor] protection of enemy tanks,” said Artsrun Hovannisian, the spokesman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry. “This is just one example new-generation precision-guided weapons.”
“Naturally, we do not declare some things immediately. But those acquisitions are significant and they will be unveiled little by little,” Hovannisian told a news conference.
“The focus remains on extremely precise means of firepower that have serious preemptive functions,” he said of the army’s plans for 2013. “It’s an ongoing process. You will have a chance to see all that later on.”
The mostly secret acquisitions stem from a five-year plan to modernize Armenia’s armed forces with long-range weapons and other hardware that was approved President Serzh Sarkisian’s administration two years ago. Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian said early this year that the plan is being successfully put into action. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan likewise spoke of an on ongoing military buildup shortly afterwards.
Some of the long-range weapons possessed by Armenia were demonstrated for the first time during a military parade in Yerevan in September, 2011. Those included Russian-made Scud-B and Tochka-U missiles capable of hitting strategic targets deep inside Azerbaijani territory.
The Armenian military said in October this year that it has simulated missile strikes on military targets as well as oil and gas installations in Azerbaijan during major exercises held in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh throughout that month. It implied that those facilities will be struck in the event of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war.
Azerbaijan condemned those threats and said its army is strong enough to protect Azerbaijani oil infrastructure and hit any target in Armenia. Over the past decade, Baku has spent billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues on a military buildup which it hopes will eventually enable it to win back Karabakh and other Armenian-controlled territories surrounding the disputed enclave.
The Armenian army also appears to have been reinforced with more advanced versions of Russian-made S-300 air-defense systems. IMINT and Analysis, a U.S. defense newsletter using open-source satellite imagery, reported in October that such systems have been deployed in the last two years in Armenia’s southeastern Syunik province adjacent to Karabakh. The online publication said their sophisticated surface-to-air missiles not only cover the entire Karabakh airspace but can also thwart air travel between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
Incidentally, President Sarkisian visited a new air-defense base near the reported location of the S-300PS batteries in late October. Official Armenian sources reported no details of its weaponry.
Armenia is able to stay in an intensifying arms race with oil-rich Azerbaijan mainly because of close military ties with Russia that entitle it to receiving Russian weapons at discount prices or even free of charge. A new Russian-Armenian defense agreement signed in August 2010 commits Moscow to helping Yerevan obtain “modern and compatible weaponry and special military hardware.”

http://asbarez.com/107325/armenia-announces-%E2%80%98significant%E2%80%99-arms-acquisitions/

[Yalquzaq]

The ones which Armenia received are, yes. There is a huge difference between a S-300PT/PS and a PMU2.

Did you ever question how APA could obtain a list like that and why there wasn't anything about it in Russian press (and that it could be made only for "propaganda" purposes). I believe Russian side denied it, but even if there really is anything like that, they are most likely for Russian base in Gyumri. And they are still not "new" equipment, you should read more carefully (that would be still Russia gifting Armenia second-hand weapons from its own inventory).

I like how you bold that part, as Azerbaijan has more than enough protection against small quantity of ballistic missiles possessed by Armenia. BTW, anyone who thinks they are able to hit "strategic targets" with ancient Scuds should STFU.

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?59490-Azerbaijan-Armed-Forces&p=1439757&viewfull=1#post1439757

Plus the contract for air-missile defence systems and radars with IAI (worth $1.6 billion).

[Sarmatian]

You guys missing an important part of scenario which will take place if Azeris will decide to settle the issue by military force.

Every military operation have two major stages: initial conflict and post-conflict occupation. In the first phase if we will assume Azeri and Armenians going to deal with each other on their own Azeris most likely will have an upper hand. Just because they have more resources and able to support larger and better equipped army.

But the second phase will be a major disaster for Azeris regardless of their success in the first. We're talking about the region with significant amount of mountainous areas with thick forests all over it. It's one of the best places for guerrilla warfare in the world. No matter what Azeris will do Armenians will never stop fighting and will ensure Azeris have no control over the area.

[Musso]

The ones which Armenia received are, yes. There is a huge difference between a S-300PT/PS and a PMU2.

Did you ever question how APA could obtain a list like that and why there wasn't anything about it in Russian press (and that it could be made only for "propaganda" purposes). I believe Russian side denied it, but even if there really is anything like that, they are most likely for Russian base in Gyumri. And they are still not "new" equipment, you should read more carefully (that would be still Russia gifting Armenia second-hand weapons from its own inventory).

I like how you bold that part, as Azerbaijan has more than enough protection against small quantity of ballistic missiles possessed by Armenia. BTW, anyone who thinks they are able to hit "strategic targets" with ancient Scuds should STFU.

http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?59490-Azerbaijan-Armed-Forces&p=1439757&viewfull=1#post1439757

Plus the contract for air-missile defence systems and radars with IAI (worth $1.6 billion).

and Armenia has also more than enough protection against Azeri missiles. As for the weapons, why would the Russian Press have to publish it? Many of the weapons in Gyumri are transferred to Armenian Armed Forces and what do you mean by it's not the "new" equipment? And you are deeply mistaken if you are saying S-300, SCUD-B, and TOCHKA-U can't inflict damage.


“The expansion of our military capacity will continue in 2011, and it will be no less large-scale than it was in 2010,” Ohanian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service after the meeting. “Let me not specify numbers.”
Armenia officially confirmed in late December that it possesses Russian-made surface-to-air missiles widely regarded as one of the world’s most potent anti-aircraft weapons. The Armenian military displayed the S-300 air-defense systems in a report broadcast by state television.
Earlier in December, President Serzh Sarkisian and his National Security Council approved a five-year plan to modernize Armenia’s armed forces. It envisages, among other things, the acquisition of long-range precision-guided weapons.

But in the end, it's better to leave the analysis to the experts:


"Upon closer inspection, Azerbaijan's purported 'military budget' incorporates not just the paramilitary forces outside the Ministry of Defence but also state prosecutors and even courts, with an apparent intention to inflate the overall figure for propaganda effect."

-- "The combined Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh defence army total is estimated by Jane's to be around 300 T-72s, considerably larger than the 110 officially declared by Yerevan. Azerbaijan is thought to maintain around 350 to 400 T-72s... Baku has declared only 217 tanks, although it it likely that this figure was designed to appear under the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty ceiling of 220."

-- "[F]or now it is the Azerbaijani UAV capability that provides the most immediate potential for escalation. Armenian defence officials have confirmed that Azerbaijan has begun flying its UAVs close to the Line of Contact that separates the two sides, with several such flights reported since 2008. In mid-2010, two Armenian Su-25s were dispatched to try to intercept these UAV flights."

-- "Armenian officials also claim that Armenia has begun to domestically produce UAVs and that more than a dozen have already entered service, with the aim of co-ordinating artillery fire. These have yet to be seen publicly."

But he concluded that, in the short term at least, war was unlikely. That's because Azerbaijan's ability to strike Armenian targets from a distance -- either from the air or with artillery -- is still too weak to overwhelm Armenians' defenses. The Armenian/Karabakh air defense systems are relatively good (they have S-300s, including possibly in Karabakh) and Azerbaijan has a fairly small number of ground attack aircraft (according to Jane's, 19 Su-25s) which would quickly be depleted by the Armenians' air defense. Azerbaijan's artillery, which also might be used to take out air defenses, would be vulnerable to Armenian artillery counterattacks, as the two sides are somewhat evenly matched on that front. So at this point, Sanamyan says, it's too risky for Azerbaijan to attack. For now.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63030

[Baluarte]

I invite you all to please read this paper that I published a while ago (it's the pre-edited version, so excuse if there are a few spelling mistakes):

http://www.viewdocsonline.com/document/1r0woc


You'll see that actually, Azerbaijan has a motivation to start the war

[Yalquzaq]

and Armenia has also more than enough protection against Azeri missiles. As for the weapons, why would the Russian Press have to publish it? Many of the weapons in Gyumri are transferred to Armenian Armed Forces and what do you mean by it's not the "new" equipment? And you are deeply mistaken if you are saying S-300, SCUD-B, and TOCHKA-U can't inflict damage.

But in the end, it's better to leave the analysis to the experts:

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63030

The claim is of course suspicious as its not about a open arms trade, rather specifies supply of second-hand weaponry from Russian inventory to Armenia, yet there is no actual proof for it. So you can't make a distinction between newly manufactured and second-hand weaponry, or are you saying that Russia is still manufacturing those listed equipment? Its obvious that you don't have slightest clue about military matters.

What could you tell us about the anti-ballistic/missile capability of S-300PT/PS? What I said was that defence systems of Azerbaijan is enough to deal with handful of (aged) ballistic missiles of Armenia. Besides, Scuds are known for their very high CEP.

Who the hell is Sanamyan? Expert? And also check the date of your articles before posting.



That's because Azerbaijan's ability to strike Armenian targets from a distance -- either from the air or with artillery -- is still too weak to overwhelm Armenians' defenses.

See this:

http://www.news.az/articles/politics/75543

EXTRA (see its specifications)

http://savepic.ru/2709199.jpg

http://i41.tinypic.com/330bmvc.jpg

With regards to howitzers, there is a contract for 50 T-155 Firtina.


and Azerbaijan has a fairly small number of ground attack aircraft (according to Jane's, 19 Su-25s)

The number of Su-25 is over 30 (many of it modernized by Elbit that add the capability to conduct missions at night), besides Azerbaijan has a large amount of attack helicopters, the Mi-24s are being (a large number already has been) modernzied to Superhind, aswell the purchase of 36 Mi-35Ms.

With regards to the moronic remark on Azerbaijan's defence budget, the figures for which kind of military organizations gets what funding is specified in the budget. Moreover, the arms procurement budget is separate from the defence budget.

Another thing, the Azerbaijani government invested $287 million in country's defence industry last year (a separate figure from overall defence spending).

http://azeridefence.com/news.php?id=7990


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vxp72mWPyA

[Musso]

The claim is of course suspicious as its not about a open arms trade, rather specifies supply of second-hand weaponry from Russian inventory to Armenia, yet there is no actual proof for it. So you can't make a distinction between newly manufactured and second-hand weaponry, or are you saying that Russia is still manufacturing those listed equipment? Its obvious that you don't have slightest clue about military matters.


And what's your point? For "newly manufactured" weaponry we are deepening the Russian-Armenian defence industry which is to be built in Armenia. A recent agreement was signed on this. We have been also producing drones (Krunk) and that industry is also growing. You make it sound like all of weapons of Azerbaijan are newly manufactured.


What could you tell us about the anti-ballistic/missile capability of S-300PT/PS? What I said was that defence systems of Azerbaijan is enough to deal with handful of (aged) ballistic missiles of Armenia. Besides, Scuds are known for their very high CEP.

and defence systems of Armenia are able to handle Azeri missiles.


Who the hell is Sanamyan? Expert? And also check the date of your articles before posting.



http://www.gagrule.net/?p=3759

See this:

http://www.news.az/articles/politics/75543

EXTRA (see its specifications)

http://savepic.ru/2709199.jpg

http://i41.tinypic.com/330bmvc.jpg

With regards to howitzers, there is a contract for 50 T-155 Firtina.



The number of Su-25 is over 30 (many of it modernized by Elbit that add the capability to conduct missions at night), besides Azerbaijan has a large amount of attack helicopters, the Mi-24s are being (a large number already has been) modernzied to Superhind, aswell the purchase of 36 Mi-35Ms.

With regards to the moronic remark on Azerbaijan's defence budget, the figures for which kind of military organizations gets what funding is specified in the budget. Moreover, the arms procurement budget is separate from the defence budget.

Another thing, the Azerbaijani government invested $287 million in country's defence industry last year (a separate figure from overall defence spending).

http://azeridefence.com/news.php?id=7990


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vxp72mWPyA

Yes, that's from a Thinktank that specializes on such matters. Also found this from this year:


YEREVAN, MARCH 16, ARMENPRESS. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London made an annual report called “The Military Balance 2013″ on the defense potential of more than 160 countries. The report contained information about Armenia’s and Azerbaijani military potential too.
As reports “Armenpress” the authors of the report gave the preference to Armenia in the comparison of the combat readiness of the two states.
Among other things it was mentioned that in the Armenian army reforms take place faster, than in the Azerbaijani army. The experts reflected on the opportunities of the Azerbaijani army critically. It is mentioned in the report that despite buying a lot of weapons at the expense of the incomes from oil the Azerbaijani military forces definitely don’t have advantages in the air space over Armenia’s air forces, which can be a serious risk factor in case of starting military actions. The report also tells that oil has given Azerbaijan a chance to buy C-300 rackets, but it is still uncertain what it has given to Baku from the point of increasing safety.



IISS report reaffirmed that all statements about “Azerbaijan’s “powerful, unconquerable and professional army” are issued exclusively for domestic consumers. As they say, there are no arguments against the facts.

[Yalquzaq]

Again, empty talk and assumption on your part. The military equipment purchased by Azerbaijan, including from Russia, are all newly manufactured arms, yes.

You didnt tell me about anti-ballistic/missile capability of Armenian air-defence systems, you just "say" things.

Again, moronic and senseless remarks. Do you even have a argument of your own, or you just quote stuff which you sounds "good" to you?

[Musso]

Again, empty talk and assumption on your part. The military equipment purchased by Azerbaijan, including from Russia, are all newly manufactured arms, yes.

You didnt tell me about anti-ballistic/missile capability of Armenian air-defence systems, you just "say" things.

Again, moronic and senseless remarks. Do you even have a argument of your own, or you just quote stuff which you sounds "good" to you?

Empty Talk? All you do is post some photos of some fancy new Azeri weapons and try to make me believe that Azerbaijan is thus capable of taking over Karabakh. I give you a 2013 report from an unbiased organization that assessed military preparedness around the world - in which they clearly say that Armenia's military is more combat ready and that's not including all the other international experts like US army experts that have said Azerbaijan is not capable of defeating the Armenians and taking over Karabakh. Some photos of fancy weapons doesn't do anything.

[adsız]

Yalquzak,

When do you think Azerbaijan will take Nagorno Karabagh back?

[Yalquzaq]

"Posting photos of fancy weapons"? I'm showing you facts, not empty talk. Yes, empty talk, thats what you do. The facts shows us a undisputable superiority of Azerbaijan in terms of weaponry and general financial opportunities to create a better armed force.

The whole notion of such claim is absurd given Armenia is a little schithole, let alone the possiblity of it having a "combat ready army".

[gregorius]

"Posting photos of fancy weapons"? I'm showing you facts, not empty talk. Yes, empty talk, thats what you do. The facts shows us a undisputable superiority of Azerbaijan in terms of weaponry and general financial opportunities to create a better armed force.

The whole notion of such claim is absurd given Armenia is a little schithole, let alone the possiblity of having a "combat ready army".

Tell me why Armenia is a shithole compared to Azerbaijan? And spare me the Oil money factor.

[Musso]

"Posting photos of fancy weapons"? I'm showing you facts, not empty talk. Yes, empty talk, thats what you do. The facts shows us a undisputable superiority of Azerbaijan in terms of weaponry and general financial opportunities to create a better armed force.

The whole notion of such claim is absurd given Armenia is a little schithole, let alone the possiblity of having a "combat ready army".

hahaha, well tell the 'empty talk' line to the military experts that continuously say Armenian army is more combat ready and Azerbaijan is not capable of defeating the Armenians.

Or should we trust more an emotional azeri nationalist to tell us who is more combat ready? You let your emotions get the best of you. And hence, you are not able to have a normal, mature conversation.

[Empecinado]

Azerbaijan...a country which considers as an national hero a soldier who killed a Armenian general while was sleeping :picard2:

[Yalquzaq]

Tell me why Armenia is a shithole compared to Azerbaijan? And spare me the Oil money factor.

Maybe you can enlighten me on what kind of financial resources Armenia has, and compared to Azerbaijan? A little bit of logic is enough to see through the delusion in Musso's arguments.

[gregorius]

Maybe you can enlighten me on what kind of financial resources Armenia has, and compared to Azerbaijan? A little bit of logic is enough to see through the delusion in Musso's arguments.
Well Armenian economy isnt based 85% on oil, still our economy is growing. Im quite curious what will happen if your natural resources will run out. Because I almost know that your goverment didnt spent the money really well, while you got still 1 million refugees who dont live in a normal place.

Armenia has more Freedom , is way higher educated, has a better healthcare , less homicide. And I can probably go on with these kind of stats which have more value to determine if a country is a shithole or not, and some oilmoney wont change that fact.

[Yalquzaq]

"Armenian economy"? Good joke.

Heard of SOFAZ?

http://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/48688.html

Most of refugees do live in quite "normal" places, and the state is providing all necessary expenses, each year a large sum is being used for that purpose.

Sure, we saw it in the elections. The sum allocated to education in Azerbaijan is higher than all of Armenian state expenditure.

[gregorius]

"Armenian economy"? Good joke.

Heard of SOFAZ?

http://www.azernews.az/oil_and_gas/48688.html

Most of refugees do live in quite "normal" places, and the state is proving all necessary expense, each year a large sum is being used for that purpose.

Sure, we saw it in the elections (and one of the candidates was mysteriously assasinated). Is way higher educated? The sum allocated to education in Azerbaijan is higher than all of Armenian state expenditure. No, it doesn't.
I cant open that link, but you seem to take all your sources from an azeri source.
Our economy is growing if you like it or not, I cant open the link of yours, but I know that the oil prodcution already fell with 4% in 2012.

And yes maybe some of those refugees have a ''normal'' house, but a significant part doesnt have. And yet they are trying to bring World championship, Olympics and good payed sporters to azerbaijan

I am talking about statics not incidental happenings :picard2:,
I am comparing all these stats to azeri stats, not with germany and yes we are better educated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_Index

[Yalquzaq]

Its about assets of SOFAZ, the state oil fund. The link works fine. You claimed that all of oil money are being "spent".

Do I need to repeat things?

"The sum allocated to education in Azerbaijan is higher than all of Armenian state expenditure."

[gregorius]

Its about assets of SOFAZ, the state oil fund. The link words fine. You claimed that all of oil money are being "spent".


"The sum allocated to education in Azerbaijan is higher than all of Armenian state expenditure."

Yes so does the American education compared to the state expenditure of Holland, Norway and Sweden combined. I doubt that the average American is better educated than them. I gave you a source where professionals analyzed and made a good ranking about it.

Quite funny that you think that the average Azeri is better educated than the average Armenian, Look a bit back in the history how the Azeris where in SU. If there is one thing we find important and never lack of its education.

Anyway if you think Armenia is a shithole compared to Azerbaijan, than its fine by me.
I rest my case and will say no more.

[xajapa]

Yes so does the American education compared to the state expenditure of Holland, Norway and Sweden combined. I doubt that the average American is better educated than them. I gave you a source where professionals analyzed and made a good ranking about it.

Quite funny that you think that the average Azeri is better educated than the average Armenian, Look a bit back in the history how the Azeris where in SU. If there is one thing we find important and never lack of its education.

Anyway if you think Armenia is a shithole compared to Azerbaijan, than its fine by me.
I rest my case and will say no more.
So true Gregor. This is where tradition and culture, along with determination, come into play. Money can'y buy a world view where education and business acumen are ingrained into a people.

[Xyresic]

Yeah even intelligent Armenians like Jack Kevorkian found a way to make a profit off the death of people.

Even if Armenia thinks it can beat Azerbaijan, if they cross certain red lines. Then the Turkish army will come and liberate all of Azerbaijan:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf9lTwxeRmQ


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74wsx91AB-8


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF8AfX67qZw

Azerbaijan and Turkey - 2 countries, 1 nation.

[Baluarte]

Here's what Maxim Shevchenko thinks on the matter (well-known geopolitical Russian journalist)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FND6L5I2gjc

He addresses the issue of Karabakh from 1:35 onward, before he speaks about Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I recommend the whole thing though.

[Loki]

^^ You speak Russian? Most of us don't.

[Baluarte]

Hmmm...
If you load the video in Youtube, not in the embedded player of the forum, you can activate English subtitles. They're not 100% perfect, but they are good enough.

[Musso]

Yeah even intelligent Armenians like Jack Kevorkian found a way to make a profit off the death of people.

Even if Armenia thinks it can beat Azerbaijan, if they cross certain red lines. Then the Turkish army will come and liberate all of Azerbaijan:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf9lTwxeRmQ


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74wsx91AB-8


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF8AfX67qZw

Azerbaijan and Turkey - 2 countries, 1 nation.

Turkey is going to attack Armenia? Turkey will want to start World War 3 with Russia for the sake of Azerbaijan? Get real.

[Loki]

Turkey is going to attack Armenia? Turkey will want to start World War 3 with Russia for the sake of Azerbaijan? Get real.

I doubt Russia would intervene physically if Turkey attacked Armenia. It's not worth it. Armenia is not that important for Russia.

[Onur]

Here's what Maxim Shevchenko thinks on the matter (well-known geopolitical Russian journalist)

He addresses the issue of Karabakh from 1:35 onward, before he speaks about Abkhazia and South Ossetia. I recommend the whole thing though.
What he said is just bullshit.

It`s impossible for Karabakh to be an independent state. Any Armenian initiative about that definitely leads to a new war. Also, Azerbaijanis and Armenians cannot live together anymore because Armenians invaded Azerbaijani territory, killed 10.000s and expelled out close to a million people from there. They hit the final nail to the coffin and it`s impossible for them to live together again.



I doubt Russia would intervene physically if Turkey attacked Armenia. It's not worth it. Armenia is not that important for Russia.
Thats true but it`s not only that.

Try to think about this in broader sense by considering today`s geopolitics in the region like Syria issue, Iran, northern Iraq and others. What happens if Russia attacks Turkey and comes close to the borders of these countries? Tell me, what Pentagon and all other western states thinks about that?

Loki, if Russia ever dares to touch Turkish soil, you can be sure that the USA and whole western world rushes for our help, not because they like Turkey but it`s because this causes a major threat for their own benefits. What about Russia. Do you think Russians are not aware of this fact and jump in to that trap for tiny Armenian state?


The existence of Turkey is a giant barrier between Russia and the areas of interests. This was always the case throughout history. It`s Turkey who keeps Russians away from these places. The healthy existence of Turkey in that place is a major security for NATO.

[Musso]

I doubt Russia would intervene physically if Turkey attacked Armenia. It's not worth it. Armenia is not that important for Russia.

If Turkey attacks Armenia, Russia is bound by treaty to help Armenia defend. Just like Nato treaty regarding Turkey. Plus, Russia has a increasingly large military base in Armenia. On top of that, why would Russia want to lose a strategic ally in a strategic part of the world? Armenia gives it real estate in a strategic area of the world and a foothold in the Caucasus.

But that being said, why would Turkey want to invade Armenia? What would it give them besides nightmare?

[Onur]

But that being said, why would Turkey want to invade Armenia? What would it give them besides nightmare?
Who said Turkey wants to invade your piss poor Armenia?

Turkey will help Azerbaijan to take Karabakh back and Russia wont be able to do anything but sending truckloads of milk&bread to you Armenians, for the reasons i have explained above.

[Musso]

Who said Turkey wants to invade your piss poor Armenia?

Turkey will help Azerbaijan to take Karabakh back and Russia wont be able to do anything but sending truckloads of milk&bread to you Armenians, for the reasons i have explained above.

Like Turkey was helping Azerbaijan in the first war? I see that worked well....lol

Turkey's not going to get involved in the conflict, and if they attack Armenia, WW3 starts.

[Onur]

Like Turkey was helping Azerbaijan in the first war? I see that worked well....lol
It was one of the greatest shame in our history. We should have bombed Armenian army and then we could end the conflict in less than 48h like we did in Cyprus. But we are not living in 1991 anymore. We wont do the same mistake again.

And don't be silly. Who the fck is Armenia? No one will start WW-3 for you. Your diaspora will just moan and yell like they always does but thats it.

[Musso]

It was one of the greatest shame in our history. We should have bombed Armenian army and then we could end the conflict in less than 48h like we did in Cyprus. But we are not living in 1991 anymore. We wont do the same mistake again.

And don't be silly. Who the fck is Armenia? No one will start WW-3 for you. Your diaspora will just moan and yell like they always does but thats it.

Turkey sent troops to Armenian border but the possibility of an attack was warded off by movement of Russian troops to the Armenian border, and the fact that we had signed a military treaty with Russia. If Turkey had attacked Armenia, it would have started a war with Russia also because you would be attacking Russian and Armenian troops defending the border and also attacking the Russian military base. That's an attack on Russia. Not to mentioned the CSTO military treaty would be evoked.

Diaspora sent weapons and money to Armenian forces during the war. Azerbaijan in all its desperation had to recruit Chechen and Afghan terrorists to do its fighting, in addition to getting help from Turkey and other Muslim countries. Such a pathetic country and their butt-hurt moaning is equally pathetic.

[Armenian Bishop]

I doubt Russia would intervene physically if Turkey attacked Armenia. It's not worth it. Armenia is not that important for Russia.

So then, Based upon that comment, Armenia can just be trashed by their Russian Ally, because "It's not worth it. Armenia is not that important to Russia." Is this some kind of cheerleading orgy, laying in wait for Russia to play Judas, and betray its loyal allies?

We don't know for a fact that Armenia is expendable, but I suspect not, because it has presented itself as a stable and loyal ally for Russia, as is the case with South Ossetia, but very much unlike the behavior of Georgia and Azerbaijan. If, by some perversion of treaty alliances, it's true that Russia has decided to throw Armenia to the wolves, then the credibility of Russia, before the international community, at large, will be serious shaken, on the level of an earthquake tremor. The security of Russian garrison troops, posted on the Armenian Side of the Turkish Border, would be violated if Turkey attacks Armenia.