Will war break out in Korea in 2013?

[Loki]

Vote and discuss.

I will go with a "yes" ...

[Vasconcelos]

I still think that NK is just barking. I have hope that they are not as lunatic as they seem, that no war will break out and that they are just doing this to force better terms in future negociations.

[Arbërori]

Unfortunately yes.

What I don't get it is, aren't they the same people? What's the point?

[Loki]

Unfortunately yes.

What I don't get it is, aren't they the same people? What's the point?

Yes, together they can kick Japan's ass.

[Arbërori]

Yes, together they can kick Japan's ass.

:lol:

But seriously, from what did the conflict arise? Northerners not liking Southerners or their music or what? :P

[Loki]

:lol:

But seriously, from what did the conflict arise? Northerners not liking Southerners or their music or what? :P

The spread of communism, of course. Was halted half-way through Korea ...

[Austo]

I think yes :)

North Korea wants a united Korea.

[Methmatician]

I thought they were always at war?

[Loki]

I thought they were always at war?

Well no the ceasefire has been in place for decades, with no major offensives, just skirmishes. This may be about to change ...

[Grenzland]

No. The army of NK is big but equipped very bad and NK can't even give every single civilian enough to eat.

[Loki]

No. The army of NK is big but equipped very bad and NK can't even give every single civilian enough to eat.

Hungry people make better warriors.

[Graham]

If they continue with the Nuclear programme, it could happen sooner rather than later. With possibly, the Yanks & the South Koreans attacking first.

[Loki]

If they continue with the Nuclear programme, it could happen sooner rather than later. With possibly, the Yanks & the South Koreans attacking first.

This is what I'm thinking ... Obama wants war, Obama will get war :)

[Grenzland]

Hungry people make better warriors.

Not really.

And don't forget, nobody really likes North Korea! :D

They aren't allowed to build modern weapons. Their technology is from 1960-1970. Quite useless against tanks and tactical aircrafts from 2013. And even if they have some modern weapons they can't upkeep it.

Their only advantage is their number. More than 1 million soldiers in times of peace.

[Graham]

How many North Koreans would jump ship at first opportunity? Secretly want to be Liberated.

[Loki]

They aren't allowed to build modern weapons.

What do you mean? They build whatever they want.

ps: and a lot of old USSR weapons can still do a lot of damage.

[Arend]

Not really.

And don't forget, nobody really likes North Korea! :D

They aren't allowed to build modern weapons. Their technology is from 1960-1970. Quite useless against tanks and tactical aircrafts from 2013. And even if they have some modern weapons they can't upkeep it.

Their only advantage is their number. More than 1 million soldiers in times of peace.Most of North Koreas military equipment is actually from the fifties and early sixties if I am not mistaken (Chinese and Soviet made). They have a few MiG-29 from the seventies that are completive (maybe); otherwise they have to rely on their sheer numbers. But besides their numbers, they have two other advantages; their artillery that can reach Seoul and their tunnels into the South that could give them a moment of surprise. The big question for me is, if the North Koreans would really be willing to fight, or if they would take the first chance to throw away their weapons and surrender.
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRR6aYGN_JVw1iA6X8f5NK3NgukcU5hu a2zSIH__Y8KQdoO3ayy
North Korea=Best Korea

[Graham]

The Americans are ready for war attack..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BG9ic4ACIAAbrpr.jpg:large

[Loki]

It seems to be getting more and more tense. I'm sure you've seen the news headlines.

[Mraz]

No, the small dogs always bark the louder.

[Loki]

No, the small dogs always bark the louder.

Well the US hasn't done anything to help. It still refuses direct dialogue with North Korea. A great part of the troubles.

[Graham]

No, the small dogs always bark the louder.

Some wee dogs are nippy bastards, who need a good skelp!

[Germanicus]

Well the US hasn't done anything to help. It still refuses direct dialogue with North Korea. A great part of the troubles.

Why should they..!! North Korea would be turned into a donkey economy again in 3 minutes if Nuclear weapons were launched by them.

[Loki]

Why should they..!! North Korea would be turned into a donkey economy again in 3 minutes if Nuclear weapons were launched by them.

For the sake of peace.

[Germanicus]

For the sake of peace.

The reality is that the Americans have strategic plans for every case scenario, North Korea would be on a hiding for nothing?

The only power that could make North Korea stop the sabre rattling is China.

[Grenzland]

For the sake of peace.

The Americans? :lmao

[Loki]

The Americans? :lmao

I know it's wishful thinking. But hey ... if war breaks out in Korean peninsula it will be worse than Vietnam for the Americans.

[Graham]

South Koreans are battle Hardened and ready.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BG9xnt3CUAEifw_.jpg:large

[d3cimat3d]

It's not going to be a war, it will be a massacre, of North Koreans. :(
& China will likely not save them because that would result in a trade embargo, which they don't want.

[Loki]

It's not going to be a war, it will be a massacre, of North Koreans. :(
& China will likely not save them because that would result in a trade embargo, which they don't want.

Well if war breaks out, it will be massacres of both North and South Koreans. Remember Seoul is just something like 20 miles from the border. And the city has over 20 million people in its extended area.

[American_Hispanist]

NK is just trying to extort money. if NK wages war, it would be the end of the regime in NK. NK may have more troops but their troops are desperately in bad shape.

[Aunt Hilda]

Do S. Koreans still want reunification?
I mean think of the vast differences between the two countries, I think the north is just barking, like they always are

[1stLightHorse]

Yes, hopefully it will. I think the region needs destabilizing. I'd like to see North Korea wiped out in a nuclear gehenna. I'd like to see China involve themselves, though the chances are miniscule.

[American_Hispanist]

Yes, hopefully it will. I think the region needs destabilizing. I'd like to see North Korea wiped out in a nuclear gehenna. I'd like to see China involve themselves, though the chances are miniscule.

what's with you and wanting to nuke places bro? :lol:

[1stLightHorse]

what's with you and wanting to nuke places bro? :lol:

http://www.coop.com.au/images/9781420061642.jpg
It's an obsession.:picard1:

[Leliana]

There will be no war, North Korea is just big talk and wants attention to lower the boycotts on trade and other stuff.

[Tropico]

Honestly the real issue is when NK and SK go at it, will they have allies? Will China back up NK and the United States SK? Will the two world superpowers really go that far?

[Loki]

"N Korea military among the largest":

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t1#/video/us/2013/04/04/tsr-foreman-north-korean-army.cnn

Interesting that NK has an army reserve of 8 million men ... I think it's the largest in the world.

[Aunt Hilda]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9971598/Is-North-Korea-really-looking-to-start-a-war.html

[Loki]

How North Korea would attack South Korea:

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t1#/video/bestoftv/2013/04/05/ac-foreman-spider-marks-north-korea.cnn

[Virtuous]

It had to happen sooner or later, these two forces have to balance each other eventually.

[Graham]

Everyone is to back out of North Korea, by the 10th of April, according to latest reports.

[Scholarios]

almost definitely not.

[Scholarios]

South Korea does not want unification, despite what you have heard. North Korea wants to maintain the status quo and wouldn't dare dream of a unification under their leadership. Kim Jong Eun is NOT insane or a religious fanatic or want to see the world end. He loves his life, he loves his wife, his toys and cognac and basketball. He does not want to risk a war he would certainly lose. The rest is just the CNN and Hollywood propaganda.

[Loki]

Embassies face decisions as tensions rise in North Korea (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/05/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)



Several diplomatic missions said the North Koreans held a meeting Friday for ambassadors in which they asked whether anyone needed assistance in evacuating their personnel.


This is a very ominous development ...

[Scholarios]

Embassies face decisions as tensions rise in North Korea (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/05/world/asia/koreas-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)



This is a very ominous development ...


Loki, I've lived in Korea for almost 7 years. That's not ominous at all. Ever since the first nuclear test it's happened. Nuclear test, Cheonan sinking, Yeonpyeong Island, tourist shooting at Keumgangsan. This is all CNN propaganda. It's totally calm here and no one is worried. This is part of everyday life. Northern commandos have attacked here, artillery hit the islands, bombs went off in front of the president , citizens kidnapped, etc. And war didn't happen. I'm not saying war won't happen ever , Its just that all these CNN and BBC pages are just a lot of rubbish.

[Loki]

Loki, I've lived in Korea for almost 7 years. That's not ominous at all. Ever since the first nuclear test it's happened. Nuclear test, Cheonan sinking, Yeonpyeong Island, tourist shooting at Keumgangsan. This is all CNN propaganda. It's totally calm here and no one is worried. This is part of everyday life. Northern commandos have attacked here, artillery hit the islands, bombs went off in front of the president , citizens kidnapped, etc. And war didn't happen. I'm not saying war won't happen ever , Its just that all these CNN and BBC pages are just a lot of rubbish.

Oh yes I forgot you were there! :) You can give us some insider-info!! :thumb001:

[Graham]

Loki, I've lived in Korea for almost 7 years. That's not ominous at all. Ever since the first nuclear test it's happened. Nuclear test, Cheonan sinking, Yeonpyeong Island, tourist shooting at Keumgangsan. This is all CNN propaganda. It's totally calm here and no one is worried. This is part of everyday life. Northern commandos have attacked here, artillery hit the islands, bombs went off in front of the president , citizens kidnapped, etc. And war didn't happen. I'm not saying war won't happen ever , Its just that all these CNN and BBC pages are just a lot of rubbish.

WMD, and the Iraq war. If the yanks feel worried, they'll spark any fight.

[Grenzland]

North Korea Best Korea! :D

[Virtuous]

Then 'Muricah sends Chuck Norris


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEMPz4Jmy3M

then,

The End.

[Hoca]

It is very hard to say if a conflict is going to arise. There are too many factors playing but the chances are that there is not going happen although there is also a chance a conflict can happen. North is ready for war and when you listen to their opinion they rather enter the war today then tomorrow. When I listened to them they sounded like toddlers and you can never know what a toddler will do.

[Drawing-slim]

This new leader seems like a young punk who feels he has to prove somthing, so most likely some thing will happened.

[ALSh]

I think no, would be crazy

[Vojnik]

I also think nothing will eventuate out of this, it will just blow over. Jong-un just wants to show the world how tough he is. Although, his toughness is sought of diminished by the fact that he enjoys 80's disco music. :rotfl:

[Vojnik]

Any such attack on South Korea would mark the beginning of a world war. Seoul is home to many foreigners, and an attack on it would force countries with respective citizens within Seoul to get involved militarily. That is just one reason why it would be extremely stupid for North Korea to follow through with their threats.

[Grenzland]

I also think nothing will eventuate out of this, it will just blow over. Jong-un just wants to show the world how tough he is. Although, his toughness is sought of diminished by the fact that he enjoys 80's disco music. :rotfl:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02113/North-Korea-jong-1_2113708b.jpg

Such a charming guy! :D

[Smaland]

http://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/B-1B-460x252.jpg
The B-1 Lancer. "Image credit: U.S. Air Force"


... the Pentagon has decided to strengthen its presence in the region by deploying several B-1 Lancer long range bombers to Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

But, for the first time in the last few weeks, the deployment of the “Bones” to the Pacific atoll was not made public (at least, not yet), a fact that could be the sign that the U.S. is not only making symbolic moves (as the above mentioned ones), but it is preparing for the worst scenario: an attack on North Korea.

full article at theaviationist.com (http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/05/lancer-nk/#.UWBb_je7C33)

[Arend]

http://i.imgur.com/oVcakiR.gif

[Aunt Hilda]

http://i.imgur.com/oVcakiR.gif


The fact that he's using binoculars, should tell you how advanced their military is.....

[ALSh]

http://theaviationist.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/B-1B-460x252.jpg
The B-1 Lancer. "Image credit: U.S. Air Force"



full article at theaviationist.com (http://theaviationist.com/2013/04/05/lancer-nk/#.UWBb_je7C33)

They need B2 to finish the job, B1 can be detected easy in radar.

[B01AB20]

And americans wanting to disturb, destabilize, bother... to china taking advantage of the situation?

China has been quite an annoyance and a menace to her asian (and american allies) neighbors lately.

[Graham]

Does kim jong un have any control of North Korea? Or is it really the military state rulers?

Just a fat puppet boy. North Korea employs Dennis Rodman, to baby sit.

[Vasconcelos]

Does kim jong un have any control of North Korea? Or is it really the military state rulers? Just a fat puppet boy.

Who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised.

[Loki]

Does kim jong un have any control of North Korea? Or is it really the military state rulers?

Just a fat puppet boy. Employs Dennis Rodman, to baby sit.

I think he does. North Korean rulers are worshipped like gods.

[Scholarios]

I think he does. North Korean rulers are worshipped like gods.

Figureheads are always worshipped publicly, but the truth is that Koreans resent him. As the grandson of Kim Il Sung, he is a legitimacy token, a manner of camouflaging who is really in power and diverting attention in the North Korean system. It's likely a cadre of generals and officials, including Kim Jong Eun's uncle Jang SungTaek. Of course, in a Confucian culture, the image is portrayed to the outside (the image, a symbol of pure "keebun"- feeling, atmosphere) is always portrayed to the world. It's different within the country though.

[Scholarios]

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/03/28/a-serious-armed-clash-on-the-korean-peninsula-is-unlikely/

Andrei Lankov is a serious scholar who studied in Pyongyang in the 1970's and works at Kookmin University in Seoul. He's one of the top foreign scholars on Korea and North Korea (really, one of the only serious scholars)

Serious armed clash on the Korean Peninsula unlikely
March 28th, 2013
Author: Andrei Lankov, Kookmin University and ANU

If the world media is to be believed, the Korean Peninsula is now on the brink of war. Indeed, over the last few days the North Korean government has been engaged in some seriously bellicose rhetoric.



The DPRK stated that it withdrew from the armistice treaty on 11 March 2013 and cut the phone hotline between Pyongyang and Seoul. It also withdrew from its non-aggression pact with South Korea. Meanwhile, Rodong Sinmun, the mouthpiece of the North Korean government, ran an editorial in which it stated that the glorious North Korean army, newly equipped with world-class nuclear weapons and missiles, would transform both Seoul and Washington into seas of fire — presumably as soon as the supreme commander gets around to giving the relevant order. According to reports from North Korea itself, the populations of major cities are undergoing frequent, high-intensity air raid drills.

Officially, all this is a reaction to the UN Security Council resolution that condemned the third nuclear test, conducted by North Korea in February. The resolution introduced some new sanctions against the DPRK and has been described by Pyongyang as an ‘act of war’.

The international community is worried, to be sure, and some media outlets have begun to dispatch their correspondents to Seoul on the assumption that a conflict might break out very soon. But these media companies are likely to be wasting their money. The likelihood of any confrontation, let alone war, in Korea remains pretty low. What we are seeing now is just another round of political manipulation by Pyongyang. The DPRK’s show of menacing bellicosity is a performance aimed at both foreign and domestic audiences.

This is well understood in Seoul — not only by the government but also by the public at large. While the South Korean media dutifully report the gothic threats that emanate from Pyongyang, the general public pays surprisingly little attention to these outbursts and seeming signs of danger. It is also telling that the South Korean stock market has not reacted in any noticeably negative way to the ‘crisis’.

The reason for this calm is simple: South Koreans have seen this many, many times. As a matter of fact, they see such histrionics as often as once every year or two. North Korea has claimed that the 1953 armistice is null and void on a number of occasions in the past — the last time such statements were made was in May 2009, as part of a reaction against an earlier UN resolution, which, like the recent one, condemned a nuclear test.

As for the recent promise to transform Seoul into a ‘sea of fire’, it has been repeated a number of times. It was first used in 1994 and repeated in 2003. Sometimes, the North Korean media has not limited itself to such general threats, but has become very specific about their supposed targets. For example, in July 2012, the North Korean official media threatened to blow up the headquarters of a major South Korean newspaper, which had published articles and materials not to Pyongyang’s liking.

But nothing has happened to the newspaper’s headquarters or, for that matter, to the South Korean capital itself. North Korea has never made good on its threats, so the South Korean public is probably right to take another Pyongyang broadside very lightly.

So why does North Korea behave this way? There seem to be at least two reasons behind Pyongyang’s noisy behaviour. First, this rhetoric seems to have become a standard reaction to UN Security Council resolutions that condemn nuclear and missile tests in the North. In spite of its high pitch this is a diplomatic gesture, a way to express North Korea’s dissatisfaction with the resolution and its resolute unwillingness to bow to outside pressure.

But there is another reason for the DPRK’s verbal bellicosity. The North Korean populace has to be regularly reminded that their country is surrounded by scheming enemies. Otherwise, they might start asking politically dangerous questions — for example, they might wonder why their country, once the most industrially advanced in all of continental East Asia, is increasingly lagging behind China and, especially, South Korea. Outside threats are the best way to explain away never-ending economic difficulties, and an air raid drill or two does wonders when it comes to keeping people afraid and stopping them from having heretical thoughts. It will also remind North Koreans of the need to maintain discipline and unite around the current leader and his ‘glorious’ family.

It therefore appears that the world has overreacted somewhat to North Korean rhetoric. This does not mean that the Korean Peninsula is a peaceful place. On the contrary, as decades of experience teaches us, we can be pretty sure that from time to time some clashes (of relatively small scale) are bound to happen on the land and sea borders between the two Koreas. But right now the chances of such clashes are low. The noise emanating from Pyongyang is, well, just noise.

Andrei Lankov is Professor at Kookmin University, Seoul, and Adjunct Research Fellow at the Australian National University.

[Armand_Duval]

I find it incredible that this chubby little evilish creature is threatening to unelsh a nulear attack, give me five minutes an I'd kick the shit otta' that little spoiled chink with one hand tied to my back..lol!.

http://i.oem.com.mx/85a5c8a3-044f-40a5-9134-6460eebe180e.jpg

It looks like a big joke however little insignificant men can make dangerous psychopaths.

[Aunt Hilda]

I find it incredible that this chubby little evilish creature is threatening to unelsh a nulear attack, give me five minutes an I'd kick the shit otta' that little spoiled chink with one hand tied to my back..lol!.

http://i.oem.com.mx/85a5c8a3-044f-40a5-9134-6460eebe180e.jpg

It looks like a big joke however little insignificant men can make dangerous psychopaths.

Isn't he a big fan of Disney land?

[Gauthier]

I find it incredible that this chubby little evilish creature is threatening to unelsh a nulear attack, give me five minutes an I'd kick the shit otta' that little spoiled chink with one hand tied to my back..lol!.

http://i.oem.com.mx/85a5c8a3-044f-40a5-9134-6460eebe180e.jpg

It looks like a big joke however little insignificant men can make dangerous psychopaths.

Sounds great. But first you must pass through his special team of kung fu bodyguards. :bounce:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqevQK3Dfyk

[Drawing-slim]

I think no, would be crazy
And plenty of crazy people in the world, thats for sure.

[rashka]

War will be instigated by the big government propelled American media.

[RussiaPrussia]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7fwvtEBXUE

[Armand_Duval]

Sounds great. But first you must pass through his special team of kung fu bodyguards. :bounce:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqevQK3Dfyk


Very impressive indeed. That little dictator is drunk if power, he compensates his physical disadvantages -and for sure a micro penis- by riding a fucking nuclear missile.

[alfieb]

No.

http://i48.tinypic.com/35anayu.jpg

[Scholarios]

http://www.dailynk.com/efile/200803/DNKF00003418_1.jpg

By the way, this guy is the real leader of North Korea, as well as a handful of old Generals. (Jang SungTaek) Just a typical Korean "ajeossi" married to Kim Jong Il's sister and Aunt of Kim Jong Eun Kim KyongHui (who also is implicated as a key policy-guider). All of the memes about chubby little boy running some inferiority-complex based circus are just that- internet memes. These old school party bureaucrats, with experience from the 1960's onward are making the decisions about mock-confrontation. If they want it to get out of hand, they will. not Kim Jong Eun, who as a 28 year old boy holds no real power.

[Diërker]

LIKE I said. We got this :) I'm ARMY STRONG.

I'll be out there keeping the peace. PFC Prazina , 209th MP dtch., 2nd Bt. 5th sq. ft. benning georgia


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8LB_WvqJ7Y

[Arend]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8LB_WvqJ7Y>Army strong
http://i.imgur.com/9BiDgGZ.gif

[Virtuous]

Isn't he a big fan of Disney land?

His father was a fan of Rambo...the irony :laugh:

[Loki]

According to analysts it would take an American force greater than the one they sent to Iraq and Afghanistan combined, during peak time, to secure North Korea. A third of the US Army.

Interesting video:

http://edition.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_c2#/video/world/2013/04/10/lead-inside-a-pentagon-war-game.cnn

[Scholarios]

But the US land forces will not be used in an assault on North... Maybe just special forces... As everyone knows. North will be occupied by their Southern brothers.

[Loki]

But the US land forces will not be used in an assault on North... Maybe just special forces... As everyone knows. North will be occupied by their Southern brothers.

They will need land forces in order to secure the nuclear sites.

Remember North Korea has 200,000 special forces ... more than any other nation in the world. And around 8 million army reserves.

[Mraz]

They will need land forces in order to secure the nuclear sites.

Remember North Korea has 200,000 special forces ... more than any other nation in the world. And around 8 million army reserves.

Isn't North Korea the country with the biggest ratio soldiers/citizens?
I read somewhere it was 25/100, but it seems very big.
In case of a war, South Korea would win, but with heavy casualties, Seoul is very close to the Green Line.

North Korea...Best Korea :D


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa_yTBtt244

[Scholarios]

They will need land forces in order to secure the nuclear sites.

Remember North Korea has 200,000 special forces ... more than any other nation in the world. And around 8 million army reserves.


They won't use a majority of us troops for this purpose. ROK troops will secure nuclear sites with US supervision. Again, US ground forces participation will be minimal. There are only 32,000 US forces in ROK now.

[Loki]

They won't use a majority of us troops for this purpose. ROK troops will secure nuclear sites with US supervision. Again, US ground forces participation will be minimal. There are only 32,000 US forces in ROK now.

Yes, that is not enough for a full-scale war. And I'm unsure South Korea would be able to beat the north on their own, even though they're more modern.

[Guapo]

We can only hope so Gagnam style.

[Virtuous]

It's like the Korean war back in the 1950's, just that now they'd be much more prepared and armed.

[Guapo]

It's like the Korean war back in the 1950's, just that now they'd be much more prepared and armed.

north have nukes. goodbye amerika! :clap:

[Virtuous]

north have nukes. goodbye amerika! :clap:

I'm just waiting for the Viet-style movies to come in 20 years time :laugh:

[Guapo]

I'm just waiting for the Viet-style movies to come in 20 years time :laugh:

We'll all be dead or north korean by then.

[Stefan]

One must remember what type of state North Korea is. It's a big pyramid to protect a small elite. They aren't going to jeopardize that by fighting a war. Their biggest threat is their own people becoming fed up, so they need to use propaganda to persuade them not to.

[Virtuous]

yee haw


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMUBWKJ5A_0

[Guapo]

go north!

[Mraz]

Between, if North Korea makes its atomic bomb explode above the USA or South Korea, it could have huge consequences.
If it happens, I bet my money on North Korea :D


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vurpNu84seU

[Guapo]

damn southerners

[Scholarios]

Yes, that is not enough for a full-scale war. And I'm unsure South Korea would be able to beat the north on their own, even though they're more modern.

With US airpower, it will be inevitable. Of course civilian casualties wil be ( relatively ) high for a developed country like the South.

However- no credible source predicts NK holding out much beyond the 2 month range. Once their artillery is wiped out along Kaesong-Panmunjeom, there won't be any serious threat to Seoul Metro area.

[Stefan]

^ The EMP radius of a 20KT (Think: Fat Man) nuclear weapon is only a few miles. North Korea's nukes are smaller than that, if they exist at all. For anything substantial they'd need about a 300KT weapon, which they don't have the ability nor the resources to make. Newt Gringrich is a Neo-Con who makes money off war, don't trust what he says.

[Virtuous]

What if the policy of Nuclear deterrence still remains during war time? It was the same back in the Cold War, just that Korea was a pawn of the USSR.

[Mraz]

^ The EMP radius of a 20KT (Think: Fat Man) nuclear weapon is only a few miles. North Korea's nukes are smaller than that, if they exist at all. For anything substantial they'd need about a 300KT weapon, which they don't have the ability nor the resources to make. Newt Gringrich is a Neo-Con who makes money off war, don't trust what he says.

Does that make a difference if the explosion occurs in the sky or on the land?

[Scholarios]

Guys. There won't be a nuclear explosion. You think NK is gonna fly a single B22 over Texas or something?????


Their only option is a " dirty bomb".. A practical means available even to Middle Eastern terrorists.

[Loki]

Guys. There won't be a nuclear explosion. You think NK is gonna fly a single B22 over Texas or something?????


Their only option is a " dirty bomb".. A practical means available even to Middle Eastern terrorists.

Well it looks like they're just going to do a missile test. But they may shoot it in the direction of Japan, and in such a case might be shot down.

[Loki]

With US airpower, it will be inevitable. Of course civilian casualties wil be ( relatively ) high for a developed country like the South.

However- no credible source predicts NK holding out much beyond the 2 month range. Once their artillery is wiped out along Kaesong-Panmunjeom, there won't be any serious threat to Seoul Metro area.

I don't see how/why South Korea/US would be more successful in a war today, than during the last Korean war. If anything North Korea is much better prepared this time round. And the southerners are sloppy McDonalds consumers.

[Norka]

But last time the North had a lot of support from China.

[Dandelion]

North Korea will probably do a small-scale attack which will be ignored by the US and South Korea initially, then suddenly North Korea would receive food aid. That's also the most plausible reasoning behind the current rhetoric. Of course, as no one knows much about the political structure of the country it might also be possible some unknown trigger might get set off causing them to go for a full scale attack on South Korea.

[Loki]

But last time the North had a lot of support from China.

The North didn't really have much of an organised army then. They have now ... and they are so strong a force that they don't even need China. North Korea's army is about as big as China's now, and if you think of reserves then it is bigger.

[Dandelion]

As big as North Korea's army is, their primitive nukes can only reach their direct neighbours. Sadly, they're probably one of the few countries as crazy to still use them.

[Norka]

But the Norths population is smaller compared to the South. Is it not?

[Loki]

But the Norths population is smaller compared to the South. Is it not?

Yes it is.

[Scholarios]

I don't see how/why South Korea/US would be more successful in a war today, than during the last Korean war. If anything North Korea is much better prepared this time round. And the southerners are sloppy McDonalds consumers.

The North was highly equipped with Modern weapons, high morale, and the bulk of Japanese Industrial infrastructure. They also did not suffer from Lukewarm allies ( the U.S. Did not really support Sygman Rhee with weapons on a large scale)

Your comment about McDonalds doesn't really need to be answered seriously- except to say that I have been to Kaesong in DPRK and I have walked the invasion tunnels in Panmunjom. The Northerners are a tiny malnourished people. The Southerners are the tallest in East Asia. Their special forces are among the best in the world ( and some of the craziest- read about how their areas in Vietnam were the most secure). They are not some pissants or something. The South manufactures it's own weapons and imports the best US military technology. Plus they have regional allies- furthermore, even China can't say anything if the North attacks first.


Sloppy McDonalds consumers? :picard2: Loki have we lost you to " the troll side"? Does that kind of comment actually pass for " analysis "??

[Mraz]

http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/asia/south-korea/map_of_south-korea.jpg

Seoul is very close wow. On the map it looks not good for South Korea, no wonder why American help.

[Loki]

Sloppy McDonalds consumers? :picard2: Loki have we lost you to " the troll side"? Does that kind of comment actually pass for " analysis "??

Well it was a crude comparison, I admit. But my point is that South Koreans have better lives; are less worried about war. For an average North Korean, the military is his life. For sure SK has a mighty army, but I think the north has the edge in an all-out war (unless of course assisted by the US).

[Stefan]

Does that make a difference if the explosion occurs in the sky or on the land?

I'm talking about the EMP radius if it were to be detonated above the earth. It depends on many factors, such as the geography below and the angle at which it is detonated, etc, etc, but for a low capacity nuke (20KT) it is only a few dozen miles AT the most. Enough for one city, but certainly not enough for a whole country the size of the U.S, which has diverse geographies. It took a 300kt weapon for the Russians to have a moderate/severe affect on Kazakhstan during the cold war.

[Diërker]

Isn't North Korea the country with the biggest ratio soldiers/citizens?
I read somewhere it was 25/100, but it seems very big.
In case of a war, South Korea would win, but with heavy casualties, Seoul is very close to the Green Line.

North Korea...Best Korea :D


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aa_yTBtt244

What the hell. Their like Asian Cyborgs.. I'm expecting a RED DAWN to occur.
We'll be ready you commie fucks. AMERICA IS OURS!

[Diërker]

Oh fuck. You're all just lucky you don't live in America!! the EU, etc. Won't get bombed... Lucky ass people

[Loki]

Good video to watch:

Why I fled North Korea (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/14/opinion/lee-north-korea-refugee/index.html?hpt=hp_c3)

[Mraz]

Good video to watch:

Why I fled North Korea (http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/14/opinion/lee-north-korea-refugee/index.html?hpt=hp_c3)

American propaganda :coffee:
The West wants to hide it, I'll tell you the truth : North Korea is number 1 in Freedom :O

[Virtuous]

Oh fuck. You're all just lucky you don't live in America!! the EU, etc. Won't get bombed... Lucky ass people

It was the Europeans that had it real bad in World Ward II/I and you can also say throughout all entire history. Hell, Malta is the most densely bombed island in history by conventional bombs. Don't come teaching us Europeans about hard times, silly Yank.

[Diërker]

It was the Europeans that had it real bad in World Ward II/I and you can also say throughout all entire history. Hell, Malta is the most densely bombed island in history by conventional bombs. Don't come teaching us Europeans about hard times, silly Yank.

Lol, I didn't even know what Malta was until a few months ago when I joined the TA community. :rotfl:
Blame it on the Uhmerikin textbooks..

[Fortis in Arduis]

Noises in our media suggest that North Korea will be attacked.

Anti-DPRK propaganda is really intensifying, with comparisons being made to Nazi Germany, the DPRK being referred to as a racist state.

It feels as though there is an escalation towards conflict, with the DPRK being demonised far more than usual.

So yes, perhaps world capitalism wants to undermine and destroy the DPRK and is now prepared to go to war in order to do it.

[Scholarios]

Anti-DPRK propaganda is really intensifying, with comparisons being made to Nazi Germany, the DPRK being referred to as a racist state.



So yes, perhaps world capitalism wants to undermine and destroy the DPRK and is now prepared to go to war in order to do it.

DPRK is a racist state, that is true without a doubt. Their Minjok ideology (also found in the South) is calque through Japanese Minzuu of the German Herrenvolk. This detail, being a somewhat lesser known fact about daily life and education in DPRK, was once little known to those outside of Asian scholarship (it still is, but was somewhat popularized in recent years by B.R. Myers' "The Cleanest race" (Dan eel MinJok)

That being said, despite the eccentric and biased take of the Western Media (and Japanese, Southeast Asian, Indian, etc.), the U.S. and South Korea would clearly wish DPRK wasn't there- but will not be able to do much about it- and won't dream of starting a war.

The thing that would most greatly undermine DPRK is the loss of its legitimacy by the removal of U.S. forces from South Korea- which is of course relevant to the choices of the South Korean people- who (both right and left) are not intellectually ready to deal with the North on their own.

[alfieb]

Lol, I didn't even know what Malta was until a few months ago when I joined the TA community. :rotfl:
Blame it on the Uhmerikin textbooks..

The part of Sicily that isn't under foreign occupation.

[Alenka]

Seems like America is about to spead their "democracy" some more. I'm sure it's with a truly honest intention, just like in Afganistan, Iraq, Libya,... there it's all milk and honey now. :rolleyes:

[Scholarios]

Seems like America is about to spead their "democracy" some more. I'm sure it's with a truly honest intention, just like in Afganistan, Iraq, Libya,... there it's all milk and honey now. :rolleyes:

The outcome of any projected war will be far different from the chaos that followed most of those. First of all, any occupation forces would be South Korean. North Koreans view the South as the legitimate government of their peninsula. They are just looking for a face-saving way to accept their rule. There won't be any North Korean insurgents after the surrender of DPRK and Workers' Party officials.

However, face-saving will have to entail a non-entrance of U.S. or UN allies into the war. Therefore, a surrender to the South without any real fight is probably the most legitimate eventual end to the conflict.

[Loki]

The outcome of any projected war will be far different from the chaos that followed most of those. First of all, any occupation forces would be South Korean. North Koreans view the South as the legitimate government of their peninsula. They are just looking for a face-saving way to accept their rule. There won't be any North Korean insurgents after the surrender of DPRK and Workers' Party officials.

However, face-saving will have to entail a non-entrance of U.S. or UN allies into the war. Therefore, a surrender to the South without any real fight is probably the most legitimate eventual end to the conflict.

South Korea is definitely not going to overpower North Korea on its own. If there is any occupation force, it would be North Koreans patrolling South Korea.

[Scholarios]

South Korea is definitely not going to overpower North Korea on its own. If there is any occupation force, it would be North Koreans patrolling South Korea.

Based on what data? In fact, i's a totally absurd scenario. South Korea will certainly overpower North on their own, without a fraction of a doubt. Their morale, training, equipment, maintenance, logistics are all more advanced. That doesn't mean their couldn't be heavy casualties (knowing that North bases their military training on Soviet doctrine- heavy artillery bombardment followed by "defensive" invasion).

America just needs air power- some special forces, naval support maybe. U.S. forces will not go much further than the DMZ. All of the North Korean plans involve trying to inflict massive casualties as soon as possible, with an emphasis on their eventual loss to South Korean forces. Of course, propaganda tools like "Uriminzokuri"- which are aimed primarily at foreigners (there is no YouTube access in NK) claim their special forces will 'occupy southern cities in 3 days'- an absurd claim meant to dupe naive foreigners of course. It reminds me of a joke that kids tell:





Q: How do you fit a giraffe inside a refrigerator in three steps?
A: 1. Open the refrigerator door
2. Put the giraffe in
3. Close the refrigerator door


Until then, take Andrei Lankov's advice about the North:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/opinion/stay-cool-call-north-koreas-bluff.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

[Loki]

Based on what data? In fact, i's a totally absurd scenario. South Korea will certainly overpower North on their own, without a fraction of a doubt. Their morale, training, equipment, maintenance, logistics are all more advanced. That doesn't mean their couldn't be heavy casualties (knowing that North bases their military training on Soviet doctrine- heavy artillery bombardment followed by "defensive" invasion).

America just needs air power- some special forces, naval support maybe. U.S. forces will not go much further than the DMZ. All of the North Korean plans involve trying to inflict massive casualties as soon as possible, with an emphasis on their eventual loss to South Korean forces. Of course, propaganda tools like "Uriminzokuri"- which are aimed primarily at foreigners (there is no YouTube access in NK) claim their special forces will 'occupy southern cities in 3 days'- an absurd claim meant to dupe naive foreigners of course. It reminds me of a joke that kids tell:





Q: How do you fit a giraffe inside a refrigerator in three steps?
A: 1. Open the refrigerator door
2. Put the giraffe in
3. Close the refrigerator door


Until then, take Andrei Lankov's advice about the North:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/opinion/stay-cool-call-north-koreas-bluff.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0

You really underestimate the North. They have the largest army in the world, when active and reserve servicemen are counted (9 million). And other than that, you have an entire nation brainwashed into worshipping their leader - they will give their lives for him. He is a god to them. A war with North Korea is a war with the whole nation ...

[Scholarios]

Could South Korea Win a war against the North without U.S. help?

http://www.rjkoehler.com/2009/06/21/south-korea-would-win-war-with-north/

North Korea has 1.02 million troops. South Korea has 650,000 troops. My favorite stat, though, is the defense budget — South Korea’s defense budget in 2008 was 26.64 trillion won, nearly 390 times North Korea’s 2008 defense budget of 68.47 billion won.

Anyway, the moral of this story — and its one I really wish US pundits would pay attention to — is that South Korea is more that capable of defending itself. This is not 1950.

A breakdown of the equipment and information technology, resources of both countries shows the advantage is clearly with the South. And that doesn't even count with U.S. air power and aid. I am convinced that U.S. will take part in fighting, but will not be part of the occupation forces. It's just not necessary. We are not talking about controlling Afghan tribes here.

[Scholarios]

You really underestimate the North. They have the largest army in the world, when active and reserve servicemen are counted (9 million). And other than that, you have an entire nation brainwashed into worshipping their leader - they will give their lives for him. He is a god to them. A war with North Korea is a war with the whole nation ...

This is of course propaganda manufactured by the North, and Kim Jong Eun is deeply resented by the people and word has it- by the military insiders. This stuff is all manufactured for foreign consumption. And it seems to be working. Orientalism played in their favor.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9191998/What-North-Koreans-really-think-of-Kim-Jong-un.html

North has a large army- but its equipment is antiquated and in serious need of upkeep. The bulk of NK tanks are Soviet surplus introduced in 1960's. T34 and T54 make up half of NK tanks. Can you imagine? It's Stalingrad era equipment. Korea is using K2 tank (from 2006!) Can you imagine? It's like Stealth bomber of F16 taking on Messerschmidt and Junker!

[Loki]

This is of course propaganda manufactured by the North, and Kim Jong Eun is deeply resented by the people and word has it- by the military insiders.


^^ Typical American propaganda.



North has a large army- but its equipment is antiquated and in serious need of upkeep. The bulk of NK tanks are Soviet surplus introduced in 1960's. T34 and T54 make up half of NK tanks. Can you imagine? It's Stalingrad era equipment. Korea is using K2 tank (from 2006!) Can you imagine? It's like Stealth bomber of F16 taking on Messerschmidt and Junker!

Old weapons are deadly too. They don't have to be flashy and new.

[Scholarios]

^^ Typical American propaganda.



Old weapons are deadly too. They don't have to be flashy and new.

American media propaganda is that NK is a threat and must be "taken out". You are the one clearly affected by this. Kim Jong Eun is not his grandfather. He has no power. He is not worshiped. He was not part of his country's liberation. There was never such propaganda about Kim Il Sung or even Kim Jong il (who was tolerated as being the "little leader")

Old weapons can be deadly, you are right. But I doubt you really think they'll occupy Seoul with T34's. There won't be a war- but if there is- there will be a bloody mess and it'll be over. No experts outside of youtube think different.

[Virtuous]

The part of Sicily that isn't under foreign occupation.

It is now occupied by traitors who let in apes from north africa, beg for burden sharing but gets no help, instead we are ordered to keep them here, raping our women, these people that do not intend to integrate. I'd rather have an Italian Malta because Mussolini's "Italianita' di Malta" showed the difference between Brits that didn't even want us to integrate with them, but Italy did.

[Loki]

American media propaganda is that NK is a threat and must be "taken out". You are the one clearly affected by this. Kim Jong Eun is not his grandfather. He has no power. He is not worshiped. He was not part of his country's liberation. There was never such propaganda about Kim Il Sung or even Kim Jong il (who was tolerated as being the "little leader")

Old weapons can be deadly, you are right. But I doubt you really think they'll occupy Seoul with T34's. There won't be a war- but if there is- there will be a bloody mess and it'll be over. No experts outside of youtube think different.

No, the type of propaganda of the Americans is that North Korea is such a miserable country whose population don't appreciate their government, or that Kim Jong Un is nothing. They obviously go on to exaggerate, and in the process try and humiliate North Korea - in order to break their morale. It's an old strategy of pre-war propaganda. The Americans are especially good at it.

You sound very confident out there and that is good to hear. At least you're not panicking.

[Scholarios]

No, the type of propaganda of the Americans is that North Korea is such a miserable country whose population don't appreciate their government, or that Kim Jong Un is nothing. They obviously go on to exaggerate, and in the process try and humiliate North Korea - in order to break their morale. It's an old strategy of pre-war propaganda. The Americans are especially good at it.

You sound very confident out there and that is good to hear. At least you're not panicking.

Loki, it's easy to see how you can think that. But when you remember that NK's are not subject to Western propaganda (or even South Korean propaganda), you can see that there is little possibility of this propaganda being heard by the North- at least common people in large doses. The North creates a feeling, an outward appearance of solidarity, martial spirit, etc. as it's their main defense against a possible preemptive invasion. The regime does have support- in a way that is difficult for Westerners to understand- (it's also a common theme in the South where 'dirty laundry' is likely to go unaired, though it's technically in the open for everyone to see).

It is fair to say that the propaganda produced for outside consumption has similarities to that inside. However, though they project themselves as "wanting to belong to the world community" to the outside world, the image within NK is different- that they are forever enemies with Japan, America, and the "lackey state".

But one shouldn't confuse their belief in the essence of their country raison d'etre (true or false, in a literal sense) with faith in their leader- especially this leader, whose upgrading to general and leader was very controversial- as far as these things go in a One Party state.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?m od=WSJ_LifeStyle_Lifestyle_3

These BR Myers article in WSJ describes the dichotomy of fanatical support contrasted with widespread cynicism and apathy that characterizes a state that has little in the way of actual concrete ideology.

[Loki]

Loki, it's easy to see how you can think that. But when you remember that NK's are not subject to Western propaganda (or even South Korean propaganda), you can see that there is little possibility of this propaganda being heard by the North- at least common people in large doses. The North creates a feeling, an outward appearance of solidarity, martial spirit, etc. as it's their main defense against a possible preemptive invasion. The regime does have support- in a way that is difficult for Westerners to understand- (it's also a common theme in the South where 'dirty laundry' is likely to go unaired, though it's technically in the open for everyone to see).

It is fair to say that the propaganda produced for outside consumption has similarities to that inside. However, though they project themselves as "wanting to belong to the world community" to the outside world, the image within NK is different- that they are forever enemies with Japan, America, and the "lackey state".

But one shouldn't confuse their belief in the essence of their country raison d'etre (true or false, in a literal sense) with faith in their leader- especially this leader, whose upgrading to general and leader was very controversial- as far as these things go in a One Party state.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704100604575145672974954144.html?m od=WSJ_LifeStyle_Lifestyle_3

These BR Myers article in WSJ describes the dichotomy of fanatical support contrasted with widespread cynicism and apathy that characterizes a state that has little in the way of actual concrete ideology.

The propaganda is for our ears in the West, in order to condition us to think: "those poor North Koreans, we need to liberate them as we liberated the Iraqis".

America can easily go to the table directly and talk with North Korea. But they refuse to do so because of its nuclear programme, and it's actually the sanctions on North Korea that is making it increasingly desperate and more prone to go to war. Sanctions are not helping at all to cool the climate.

[Stefan]

The propaganda is for our ears in the West, in order to condition us to think: "those poor North Koreans, we need to liberate them as we liberated the Iraqis".

America can easily go to the table directly and talk with North Korea. But they refuse to do so because of its nuclear programme, and it's actually the sanctions on North Korea that is making it increasingly desperate and more prone to go to war. Sanctions are not helping at all to cool the climate.

I generally agree. I wouldn't call it false propaganda, but it's propaganda nevertheless. Either way it should not be the business of the U.S. Having said that North Korea won't go to war unless the U.S attacks it. The leadership of North Korea is in a fragile position and war would effectively kill them.

[Loki]

I generally agree. I wouldn't call it false propaganda, but it's propaganda nevertheless. Either way it should not be the business of the U.S. Having said that North Korea won't go to war unless the U.S attacks it. The leadership of North Korea is in a fragile position and war would effectively kill them.

Of course they won't. I think the world should just accept that NK is a nuclear country. They accept Israel, who wouldn't even sign the non-proliferation treaty. Sanctions on NK are very damaging, it hurts only the people of NK not Kim Jong Un.

[civilian]

It's 2015, the war did not break out overall.
I don't think there'll be a war between North Korea and South Korea ever in the future.
US said N.Korea will have a self-end of their dictatorship which is coming from the downfall of their isolated economy.

[Germanicus]

I generally agree. I wouldn't call it false propaganda, but it's propaganda nevertheless. Either way it should not be the business of the U.S. Having said that North Korea won't go to war unless the U.S attacks it. The leadership of North Korea is in a fragile position and war would effectively kill them.

There will be countless moments when the North Koreans verbally attack the United States to prove that they are being tough. But it is best to resist the natural urge to strike back. Otherwise your talks could easily bog down in useless exchanges. Once during a visit to a North Korean nuclear facility, the chief engineer harangued about American hostility for what seemed like an eternity. He decided to move on after he was done and, sure enough, they then got down to business. On the other hand, there are times when counterattacking is essential, especially when North Koreans pull back from what you thought was a done deal, as they often do.

And there are rare but perfect moments when you can let it rip. A classic case in point: After listening to a dull North Korean bureaucrat ramble on about America's hostile policy during a coffee break, a State Department colleague pointed out to him that if the U.S. had been that hostile, the North Korean literally wouldn't have been there (physically). Point made; the initial shock gave way to another diatribe.

[Drawing-slim]

Take US nuclear weapons out of the play and North Korea would kick anyone's ass.

[Germanicus]

Take US nuclear weapons out of the play and North Korea would kick anyone's ass.


France could pulverise North Korea with just one Aircraft carrier!