The European economy

[Jamt]

How bad is the European economy really?
I know pretty well that, at least the Swedish economy, is in far better shape than the US`s but will this really matter at all if global economy collapse?

All this is getting me in the mood to get in serious survivalist preparation mood.

Here are some frightening predictions for the UK from Rod Dreher:

A London friend e-mails today to say that I'm too optimistic about the economy on this blog. He tells me that a very intelligent, highly placed and "unsentimental" friend -- he told me this friend's name, and while I can't vouch for her unsentimentality, I can vouch for her position, and that one would have to be quite smart to hold it -- anyway, that this friend says that by this time next year, Britain could be in the same place as Iceland: bankrupt. It has to do with the British being in more serious debt than Americans are.

I found this unsettling in part because it brought to mind a chilling conversation I had with a leading British journalist two or three years ago, in which he said that he expected to see a "religious war" -- his words -- in his country in his lifetime (he's in his forties). I've blogged about this before, and still find it hard to see how this is possible in the UK in the 21st century.

But if the UK were to go bankrupt, I suppose it would be much easier to imagine this kind of civil unrest -- especially considering what Greece has gone through this past week. At Asia Times, David Goldman foresees the Icelandization of more European nations -- with social unrest to follow.


http://blog.beliefnet.com/crunchycon/2008/12/today-iceland-tomorrow-britain.html#more

[SwordoftheVistula]

Britain could well get in the same trouble as Iceland, because like Iceland a large part of their economy is based on financial services (London).

Sweden and Germany seem to be more manufacturing-based economies, and thus less in danger of a total meltdown. Sweden could still have some problems, if all the upper middle class liberals who buy Saabs and Volvos stop doing so when they lose their job at the bank.

[Jamt]

In Sweden a thrust worthily Volvo is not a liberal ideal, but a “can do it myself, leave me alone” working class man’s car. I think something like a pickup in America.

You are right that Sweden are starting to suffer big time be course of our car, truck and steel industry.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Yeah, the car, truck, and steel industry is a lot less vulnerable than an economy based on financial services, but exports to countries which are will eventually suffer. Global demand for oil is predicted to drop, which may be a sign that vehicle use in general will drop, not a particuarly good sign for a country which depends heavily on vehicle exports.

[Jamt]

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[Oresai]

Britain is indeed in serious trouble. When `institutions` like Woolworths, a chain of shops seen on every high street for the past ninety-odd years, goes bust, well...:(
Here in Orkney in the past month alone, over forty small businesses have gone bankrupt. I`m so lucky to not include myself among them but don`t mind admitting I`m hanging on by the skin of my teeth. :(
I make what is classed as a `luxury` product...sheepskins...and have been told by returning customers that because of the recession, they can`t (understandably) afford to buy such things.
Not sure how long I can keep afloat but I`ll bust a gut trying. If I do go under, I`ll be fighting all the way.
Food and fuel prices have tripled here. Basics like electricity and gas, petrol and such things as bread and other staple foods have been priced through the roof. Yet wages have not increased to keep pace, and indeed many folks are being made redundant or companies, as I said, are going under.
We are constantly being told to tighten our belts, but what are you supposed to do when your belt is as tight as it`ll go, and there is literally nothing more you can do to cut costs? :(
Britain is, of course, as noted, in major debt worldwide. Yet it amazes me that the powers that be still find the cash to subsidise third world countries, who, in my opinion, should be left to rot.
They are currently getting ready to cut the Forces down drastically, given what I consider a major threat from Middle Eastern ambitions, I think that is an appalling idea.

I lived through the Thatcher years in Scotland, where her government decimated the steel, coal and shipping industries. None of these have recovered. I remember the miners marches, the poll tax riots, the protestors at the loss of many Tory-swiped industries in Scotland. Nothing came of it. :(
At least this time, I have a feeling that many of the rich fat cats will go under alongside us poorer folks. At least, I bloody well hope so.:mad:
I live in a rural, isolated area. Yet I weekly see families leaving here, going south onto mainland UK, because it is becoming too expensive to live here. That is due to the recession and the rising cost of living thanks to that. We see on the news that oil prices have dropped, yet it is never reflected in the petrol pump prices here. And we have no public transport. We need to run cars.
We are told it costs, thanks to fuel prices etc, to ship non local food onto the isles. Yet the local council subsides the shops on every island to provide basic foodstuffs for islanders. And still the shops bump up the prices claiming `shipping` and the rising cost of produce.
Speaking personally, it`s a double edged sword...on the one hand the recession tends to affect isolated places even more than inner cities, but that is never newsworthy. Whole communities go under without so much as a murmur in the media. There aren`t enough of us to be interesting. :(
On the other hand, there are folks like myself who, if it came to it, could survive, even in a hostile climate like Orkney, through using their own knowledge and resources. And it wouldn`t be a particularly comfortable or pleasant and easy survival, but would keep us fed, clothed and sheltered.
I don`t want to sound like a doomsayer, but for many small communities here, it`s getting perilously close to that already.

[Fortis in Arduis]

The British National Party favour localisation of the economy in ownership.

So even if you are importing, the distributers are locals, not outsiders.

If the shops in Orkney were replaced by several large buying co-operatives there would be no room for exploitation by middle men and outsiders, and local producers would have a receptive market for their goods.

Of course they could have their own co-operatised market which they run themselves.

Then there are Local Exchange Trading Schemes (LETS) where people exchange services without cash, but with points instead.

One can also barter...

Local businesses can be co-operativised by agreement between the workers and owners, to prevent exploitation by outsiders, banks, investors and so forth.

You could turn Orkney into a very small national socialist country.

Seriously... I would have a go if I lived there. There must be people in Orkney who want to do this, or are they all about ripping each other off?

[Oresai]

We recently got a Tesco opening on Orkney mainland. It took some doing, mainly because in rural areas small shops and businesses fight tooth and nail against any incoming large corporations, believing they can`t face the competition. But Tesco arrived. Know what though? It`s little cheaper than the local shops! :eek: :( This is because of that old chestnut, shipping...they say so, anyways. ;)
We`re at the mercy of geography, here, and the Pentland Firth, which means anything coming in has the added cost of shipping fuel on top of it.
There are around twenty thousand people in the whole county of Orkney. A surprising amount of those are now incomers, and sadly they bring incomer ways with them, one of those being fierce competition and because of the location, a narrow minded focus, to the exclusion of pragmatism, of tourism and arts and crafts, instead of the practicalities of how we eat, heat our homes, and run our cars etc. :)

I know this`ll sound crazy..but when I moved here, twenty years ago, the place had more native Orcadians. Things were different, and folks did look out for one another, and it was easier, far easier, simply to live here.
Over the years the lure of Orkney as a place to run away from city troubles to, gained sway and more incomers, particularly English, turned up, trouble is they bring down south ways with them, including an increase in incomer-related crime, a distrust of anyone that seems endemic in southerners, and a more greed-driven way of commerce.
I have become, according to the native island matriarch (yes, there is one on every isle :D) an `Orcadian` by dint of sticking it out for twenty years. :D
But I miss the old days, when there were more Orcadians here than English. Goswinus is currently here with me now, he`ll confirm, you will hear more English accents here than native. And of course, as a Scot, I`m in the minority of them all! I think the reason I am so accepted is simply because I found the native ways to my liking, and fitted in with them instead of trying to change them. The incomers here have tried to turn the island into a little version of England. :(
So yes, sadly, there`s a lot of ripping off going on. At first the natives tried to fight their corner. Now though most have given up and moved away, which is awful and sad to see. I have lost friends over the years because of it.

Och, I should get off my soapbox I guess. :) Nothing stays the same. But I can`t help feeling things could be different, yet the Orcadian nature seems to be to accept such things without a good fight. They are a laid back and placid people. To their demise, I think. :(

[Fortis in Arduis]

English people from the South-East in particular have a lot more capitalistic savoir faire from living so close to London (think Essex man as well as City suit), but many Scots have the bug too, particularly Aberdonians.

I think that this comes not from where they live, but their racial history. They were raider-traders. Today this means fish quota fiddling, shady property dealing and general nouse in matters financial.

I cannot see how Orkney would be any different. The local people have probably had their own line in fish quota fiddling, and ripping off their neighbours with claims of 'shipping costs' and other scams besides.

TESCO prices are just a *tiny* fraction below the locally owned shop prices. Well... quelle surprise! Who would have thought it? :lightbul:

So, if a bunch of incomers arrive and start doing the same thing with a little more panache and a different cultural slant, they are only building on what was there to begin with.

There is no way in hell, you are going to defeat the problem of 'shipping costs', unless you create a buying co-operative.

The Danish co-operatives are a good example to look at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_cooperative_movement

Co-operativisation helps communities to adapt and weather economic storms.

It also forces those would exploit (from without and within) to muck in or f*** off, which is why co-operative ecomomics were the better part of German national socialism.

The problem is greed. People would rather risk being poor if there is a chance that they could rip their neighbours off.

More often than not, they end up being poorer than they would be in a co-operativised situation, because co-operativisation, or even worker-shareholder arrangements have been proved, time and time again to be the most effective system. For quality, for pay, right across the board.

Example : I do my shopping online with Waitrose, which is the John Lewis Partnership grocery store in the South-East of England and they deliver it to my door the same day. They are not a co-op, but a partnership, which is in some ways not dissimilar.

They are a little more expensive than TESCO on some products but the quality of the food is much better. They are better value for money and that is what ultimately makes the difference.

If the people who work for the business own it and buy from it, there is a certain something else which comes into play, in addition to the profit motive.

Buying co-operatives are ever cheaper than supermarkets like TESCO, as they have the same buying power but no profit motive whatsoever.

Incidentally, I now feel that I have finally 'arrived' because I shop at Waitrose :D

(If you live in the South-East of England you will understand this.)

[SwordoftheVistula]

Have fuel prices not gone down in all of Britain, or just where you live? Fuel prices here have dropped 65% since August.

[Oresai]

Not sure, from what I hear from friends in other areas of Scotland (remote areas) fuel prices are higher than in towns and cities. Irony is, it`s the remote areas that really need cheap fuel, as most areas don`t have reliable (or any! ) public transport.
In the end I`ve got my feet. :D But it`s a bit difficult to get to mainlaind without the boat, hee...:D and to get to the boat, I need the car.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Well yes, the remote areas will always have higher fuel costs, because they will be located further away from refineries and major pipelines, terminals, and other distribution points.

[Oresai]

We have Flotta oil terminal in the Orkney Isles ;)

[Fortis in Arduis]

We have Flotta oil terminal in the Orkney Isles ;)

Shame! Down with 'shipping costs'! :p

(No, really. I am upset. It is iniquitous and symptomatic of a wider problem)

Do you think a buying co-operative could be established on Orkney to put the trader middle-men out of business?

[Oresai]

Only by the brave! On a very much smaller level, a few years ago two men tried to start a grocery van here on island, delivering essentials like bread, tea, sugar etc around the doors, particularly to the elderly. Having no shop meant they kept costs absurdly low.
The three island shopkeepers got together and basically hounded these guys off the island! :(
On a larger scale, it`s exactly the same on Orkney mainland. A chain of shops whose name I forget publicised how they intended to set up on Orkney mainland. The county`s shopkeepers held meetings with the council and their attempt was defeated. Gods know how Tesco managed it!
Life in a small community...has its bonuses but the above is one of the minuses. ;)