Baluarte
05-04-2013, 09:47 PM
Nigel Evans has a healthy Parliamentary majority in Ribble Valley of over 14,700 – but should his arrest trigger a by-election, it could still present a huge headache for David Cameron.
Even before Nigel Farage’s UKIP emerged as the ‘fourth force’ in British politics last week, the constituency had a history of causing difficulty for Conservative Prime Ministers.
In 1991, Mr Evans was the Tory candidate for Ribble Valley when Cabinet Minister David Waddington was elevated to the House of Lords – triggering a poll in which the party’s majority of 19,528 turned into a Liberal Democrat majority of 4,601.
Although Mr Evans won the seat back for the Conservatives at the next year’s General Election, the party is still scarred by the memory of the Liberal Democrats – then just three years old as a party, and UKIP’s predecessors as the natural ‘party of protest’ – increasing their share of the vote by a whopping 27 per cent.
It was one of the largest swings in by-election history.
Mr Evans has not been charged with any offence, but if he subsequently chose to stand down from Parliament in the wake of the allegations, UKIP would regard it as the perfect opportunity to secure their first Westminster MP.
At the last Election, Mr Evans took 50 per cent of the vote; Labour were in second place, on 22 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats third on 20 per cent and UKIP fourth, with just under seven per cent.
((Waiting: Mr Evans has not been charged with any offence, but if he subsequently chose to stand down from Parliament in the wake of the allegations, Nigel Farage's UKIP would regard it as the perfect opportunity to secure their first MP))
However, if the party could match the surge it managed in the Eastleigh by-election earlier this year, when it increased its share of the vote by eight-fold to 28 per cent, then victory would be within its grasp.
Although Nigel Farage says in an interview with today’s Mail on Sunday that he will not consider standing for Parliament himself until after the 2014 European elections, his party’s stunning performance in last week’s council elections – taking 139 seats and securing 23 per cent of the vote – would still give his party the ideal springboard.
Ribble Valley, which was created as a constituency in 1983, is a wealthy, rural area which is traditionally more right-of-centre in its voting patterns than the rest of Lancashire.
In last week’s council elections Labour finished just four seats short of outright victory on the county council.
The party was holding discussions with the Lib Dems over the weekend to oust the Conservatives from power.
UKIP did not gain any seats, but was blamed by Conservative councillors for cutting into their share of the vote.
In the wake of the results, the council’s Conservative deputy leader, Albert Atkinson, said: ‘I blame David Cameron for this.
‘He needs to listen.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319546/Could-Nigel-Evanss-arrest-trigger-election-nightmare-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2SMYtft49
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Even before Nigel Farage’s UKIP emerged as the ‘fourth force’ in British politics last week, the constituency had a history of causing difficulty for Conservative Prime Ministers.
In 1991, Mr Evans was the Tory candidate for Ribble Valley when Cabinet Minister David Waddington was elevated to the House of Lords – triggering a poll in which the party’s majority of 19,528 turned into a Liberal Democrat majority of 4,601.
Although Mr Evans won the seat back for the Conservatives at the next year’s General Election, the party is still scarred by the memory of the Liberal Democrats – then just three years old as a party, and UKIP’s predecessors as the natural ‘party of protest’ – increasing their share of the vote by a whopping 27 per cent.
It was one of the largest swings in by-election history.
Mr Evans has not been charged with any offence, but if he subsequently chose to stand down from Parliament in the wake of the allegations, UKIP would regard it as the perfect opportunity to secure their first Westminster MP.
At the last Election, Mr Evans took 50 per cent of the vote; Labour were in second place, on 22 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats third on 20 per cent and UKIP fourth, with just under seven per cent.
((Waiting: Mr Evans has not been charged with any offence, but if he subsequently chose to stand down from Parliament in the wake of the allegations, Nigel Farage's UKIP would regard it as the perfect opportunity to secure their first MP))
However, if the party could match the surge it managed in the Eastleigh by-election earlier this year, when it increased its share of the vote by eight-fold to 28 per cent, then victory would be within its grasp.
Although Nigel Farage says in an interview with today’s Mail on Sunday that he will not consider standing for Parliament himself until after the 2014 European elections, his party’s stunning performance in last week’s council elections – taking 139 seats and securing 23 per cent of the vote – would still give his party the ideal springboard.
Ribble Valley, which was created as a constituency in 1983, is a wealthy, rural area which is traditionally more right-of-centre in its voting patterns than the rest of Lancashire.
In last week’s council elections Labour finished just four seats short of outright victory on the county council.
The party was holding discussions with the Lib Dems over the weekend to oust the Conservatives from power.
UKIP did not gain any seats, but was blamed by Conservative councillors for cutting into their share of the vote.
In the wake of the results, the council’s Conservative deputy leader, Albert Atkinson, said: ‘I blame David Cameron for this.
‘He needs to listen.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2319546/Could-Nigel-Evanss-arrest-trigger-election-nightmare-Prime-Minister.html#ixzz2SMYtft49
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook