German Bundestag election 2009

[Lenny]

The Federal-Republic of Germany holds an election tomorrow (27th of Sept. 2009).

For those unaware of German politics, here are the contendors:

CDU, a center-right party
SPD, a center-left party
(CDU/SPD have been ruling together in a "grand coalition" since 2005)
Linke, the name of the reformed Communists who ruled "Mittel-Deutschland" (DDR) through 1989; they're now teamed up with the degenerate elements of western communist-sympathizers
FDP, a freemarketeer, "let's tighten our belts and not be bleary-eyed Sozial-Staat slobs" party
Greens, a left-wing ostensibly environmental party.
NPD, the primary "nationalist" party, calling for the repatriation of foreigners but always teetering on the brink of a Constitutional ban.
A smattering of minor parties which have no chance to get a seat, often single-issue.
Current Seats / Projected Result 2009 (final round of polls)
CDU: 37% / 38%
SPD: 36% / 26%
FDP: 10% / 14%
Linke: 9% / 12%
Green: 8% / 10%
(Click here (http://www.welt.de/politik/article4271728/Das-interaktive-Politik-Special.html) for an interactive page to see the poll results, the changing popularity of the parties over time, and the Coalition calculator.)

From the perspective of those concerned with European Survival, as we are, there are several things to consider.

--One is to watch is how well the "nationalist" parties do. Although they will not get seats (there is a 5% threshhold minimum to get any seats), they might still get significant vote totals above and beyond their ~2.5% (combined) result in 2005. A respectable result will increase the prestige of these parties, which is generally a good thing.

--Another is to hope that the CDU and SPD, the "stay-the-course" parties, get as low a combined vote as possible. Although normal-thinking people hate communism and the social-farleftism it has attached itself to, the rise of the neoCommunists ("Linke") is a good thing. They will get near 15% of seats, which is tragic, but it does serve to "open up" politics. There are now permanently 5 parties in the Bundestag, up from 3 for most of post-1949 history. In such a setting, it's a lot easier for new parties to emerge than a two party duopoly.


--The most likely result is a barely-a-majority coalition for CDU-FDP.
The other possible government is SPD-Greens-Communists, which would be shocking indeed.

--In terms of actual policy in the upcoming years, a CDU-FDP government is certainly a lot better than the "neoSED" getting into government via a Pink-Green-Red (SPD/Green/Linke) coalition. CDU-FDP will do less damage.

[Electronic God-Man]

OK, I don't know much about the system but I heard from those in the know that Merkele's party was projected to win with a second place going to SPD (I think). Looks like same old, same old.

[Lenny]

"There are 5.6 million persons with "migratory backgrounds" with eligibility to vote on the 27th of September 2009. This accounts for 9% of all eligible voters." source (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/09/14/zitat-des-tages-18/) :rolleyes2:

[Electronic God-Man]

"There are 5.6 million persons with "migratory backgrounds" with eligibility to vote on the 27th of September 2009. This accounts for 9% of all eligible voters." source (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/09/14/zitat-des-tages-18/) :rolleyes2:

So I'm right? :D

[Lenny]

OK, I don't know much about the system but I heard from those in the know that Merkele's party was projected to win with a second place going to SPD (I think). Looks like same old, same old.
The SPD has been hurt really badly. I don't quite understand it, other than a few embarrassing blunders they've made. (One was the Hesse-SPD leader trying to bring the neoCommunists into the state government, causing the local party to collapse with Landtag members leaving the party en masse in protest, and voter support drying up in the snap Hesse Landtag election this January). Maybe one of the German members can explain this.

But understand that "second place" doesn't matter. It's very possible that if the neoCommunists, Greens, and SPD get a combined 50.1% of seats, they could form a government, despite the SPD not getting many seats itself. These coalition systems are interesting in that way.

[Lenny]

Each voter has two votes: One for a "direct mandate" for your district (Kreis) and one for a state party list. The great majority of Wahlkreise are safely in one camp or the other: Only one-third are even close.

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/5552/btwahlkarte.gif

[Lenny]

We present (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/die-cdu-ein-trauerspiel-in-bildern-darum-sonntag-rechts-wahlen/#more-4341) these photos in hopes that no one who reads this makes the lamentable mistake of casting their vote for the CDU this coming Sunday. Please pass along to your friends to prevent the same.


http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/651/cduwahlplakatmitkopftuc.jpg

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9852/cdudeutschturkischesfor.jpg

AND, if pictures don't quite "do it" for you:

Our society as a whole, along with Interior-Minister Schäuble himself, has come to accept that the Muslims have greatly enriched Germany.

The Interior-Minister sincerely wishes that all Muslims in Germany 'make themselves at home' (heimisch werden).

Announcement (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/09/24/zitat-des-tages-21/) from the Office of Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), BundesInnenminister

[Thorum]

And more Muslim "enrichment":

"Merkel ignores Islamic threats before German vote

Two videos surfaced Friday (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33030200/ns/world_news-europe/) — one by al-Qaida and another by the Taliban — threatening retaliation for Germany's military presence in Afghanistan. The Taliban video showed top German landmarks like the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin and Munich's world-renowned Oktoberfest."

German's should not worry though, Islam is a religion of peace....:rolleyes:

[Brännvin]

CDU-FDP will do less damage.


The other possible government is SPD-Greens-Communists, which would be shocking indeed.


CDU's "Obama" Zeca Schall, it interesting he and the CDU are using the banner of "racism" to win for a state parliament seat in Thuringia, indeed, pure opportunism by both sides.

http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/2/6939/z6939412X.jpg

[Brännvin]

Go, go, Die Linke's Oskar Lafontaine :thumb001:, a real social democrat.

[Lenny]

And more Muslim "enrichment":

"Merkel ignores Islamic threats before German vote

Two videos surfaced Friday (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33030200/ns/world_news-europe/) — one by al-Qaida and another by the Taliban — threatening retaliation for Germany's military presence in Afghanistan. The Taliban video showed top German landmarks like the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin and Munich's world-renowned Oktoberfest."

German's should not worry though, Islam is a religion of peace....:rolleyes:
So one of the things I have been told as to why the neoCommunists have seen their support rise -- they might get 15% of seats this time -- is the war issue. Germany's token force in Afghanistan enrages the large element of doves in the SPD and Greens.

Both the Greens and SPD favor sticking it out in Afghanistan and/or sending more troops than the Brigade they have there now.

In general, the SPD is seen as too centrist-- and nowthat there is a viable hard-left alternative, these communists-in-spirit will not stick by the party of SED-agent Willy Brandt.:D

[Lenny]

CDU's "Obama" Zeca Schall, it interesting he and the CDU are using the banner of "racism" to win for a state parliament seat in Thuringia, indeed, pure opportunism by both sides.

http://bi.gazeta.pl/im/2/6939/z6939412X.jpg
Ah, the so-called "Quotenneger (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/08/12/npd-thuringen-kampagne-gegen-cdu-quotenneger-zeitigt-erste-erfolge/)" that the NPD made a lot of noise in mocking (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/08/11/thuringen-staatsschutz-schaltet-sich-in-posse-um-cdu-plakat-ein/) a few weeks back.

(Though again perhaps it's the puppet following the master: Remember this? (http://www.theapricity.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1959))


There's no question about it: the CDU is terrible, but I cannot tolerate neoCommunists getting power. There is almost no chance the SPD would form a government with the neoCommunist Linke party anyway.

[Lenny]

Exit Poll Results
CDU/CSU 33,5
SPD 23,5
FDP 14,5
Linke 13
Grüne 10
NPD 1,5
Others 4,0

No one who gets under 5% of the vote gets any seats.
By my calculation, using 94.5% as the denominator, CDU-FDP has a slim-majority: 50.8% of seats. Maybe it'll come out a bit higher in the wash. Or so one can hope...



I hope some of our German members can post their thoughts on this topic.

[The Lawspeaker]

Someone once said: People get what they deserve. Football and fascism. Especially with the CDU/CSU, SPD or FDP around nothing will ever change in Germany.
What they need is what we all need: a respectable nationalist party (or better a group of them that could form up a coalition government) that weaken both the "left and the right" (read: established parties) and destroys the notion that nationalists are nutzi's.

[Lenny]

What they need is what we all need: a respectable nationalist party (or better a group of them that could form up a coalition government) that weaken both the "left and the right"
That would be the "REPs", a party that tries to be so respectable that it prances into totally-clownish territory insodoing.

To wit:

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3994/repd.jpg
Standing Together Against Left and Right-Wing Extremism!
Vote for the only patriotic party that stands firmly with both feet in the camp of our Constitution! :rolleyes2:

That party gets so little support that it might as well fold up shop and go home. If someone is so "patriotically supportive" of the current order, they'd just vote CDU. The NPD is different, but they have their own problems.

[Phlegethon]

The strong showing of the liberals will at least guarantee us some token protection of our civil rights. The outcome of the election was no surprise whatsoever. The 2 percent for the Pirate Party, a complete one-isssue amateur which more or less wants to get rid of copyright laws, shows thaat nobody takes elections seriously anyway. Lowest voter tunrnout ever, weakest results for both big parties, best result for the liberals ever, best results for the Left ever. The only reason why the really small parties have no better results is because they lack the size for campaign ability (which I would estimate at around 25,000) or their own mass media.

The number of folks who think that this whole parliamentary democracy thingy is one big money pit and hoax is constantly rising. And of course they are right.

[Tony]

"There are 5.6 million persons with "migratory backgrounds" with eligibility to vote on the 27th of September 2009. This accounts for 9% of all eligible voters." source (http://gesamtrechts.wordpress.com/2009/09/14/zitat-des-tages-18/) :rolleyes2:
Hi Lenny , according to what they are eligible?does the foreign stock need to be citizen before to get the right to vote or is it different?
is there a difference between cities elections , lander elections and parliamentary elections?

[Phlegethon]

Only EU foreigners can vote in municipal elections, state and national elections are reserved for German citizens exclusively.