World heads for a cold winter, disproves 'global warming' scam

[SwordoftheVistula]

George Soros hoping to profit from 'global warming' scam:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5992BJ20091010

Billionaire George Soros said on Saturday that he would invest $1 billion in clean energy technology as part of an effort to combat climate change.

The Hungarian-born U.S. investor also announced he would form and fund a new climate policy initiative with $10 million a year for 10 years.

"Global warming is a political problem," Soros told a meeting of editors in the Danish capital where governments are scheduled to meet in December to try to hammer out a new global climate agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

"The science is clear, what is less clear is whether world leaders will demonstrate the political will necessary to solve the problem," he said, according to a brief email statement.

His remarks came a day after climate talks in Bangkok ended in deadlock over how much cash should be made available to poorer nations to help them cope with climate change and over the size of rich countries' greenhouse gas emissions cuts.

Soros said he would apply stringent criteria to his investments in clean energy technologies.

"I will look for profitable opportunities, but I will also insist that the investments make a real contribution to solving the problem of climate change," Soros said.


http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=11295113

The National Weather Service predicted freezing temperatures and snow flurries both Saturday and Sunday for most of Eastern Montana.

Meanwhile, temperatures in parts of western Montana were near zero overnight and record lows were set in Missoula, Kalispell and Butte on Sunday.

With chilly temperatures expected to sweep across the state over the weekend, school marching bands were pulled from the University of Montana's homecoming parade Saturday under threat of frigid weather.

John Combs, Fine Arts Director for Missoula County Public Schools, says it was difficult to yank hundreds of students from the parade lineup. But, the alternative was kids possibly slipping on ice or getting sick.

It's unexpected for early October, but forecasters are warning Western Montanans to be on their guard for frostbite the rest of the weekend.

A cold, Arctic air mass flowing from Canada pushed temperatures well below season normals and set records on Saturday and Sunday.

Missoula's official low temperature of 10 degrees Saturday broke a 36-year record. Kalispell was just 5 degrees, well below the previous record of 16 degrees set in October of 1987.

National Weather Service officials say that outflow winds from east of the Divide will push through gaps in the mountains like Hellgate and Badrock canyons through Sunday.

The winds are expected to blow up to 25 miles per hour, creating wind chill of up to 20 below for the Flathead and Mission valleys, and around 10 below in the Missoula Valley.


http://www.missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/article_c1c13d5e-b6a4-11de-a09c-001cc4c002e0.html

Record-low temperatures in southwestern Idaho are threatening to destroy at least a portion of this season's crop of seed potatoes.

Spuds still in the ground could be saved by a layer of snow; a dusting had fallen on Bozeman and the surrounding region by Sunday.

Nina Zydak, director of the Montana State University Potato Lab, said most area farmers have already started digging.

But many farmers expect to lose some of their potatoes.

"It's over," Larry Van Dyke, who owns Van Dyke Farms in Townsend, told the Bozeman Chronicle.

He says when it's this cold for too long, the frost penetrates and the taters are toast.

The main goal now is to make sure the spoiled potatoes don't make it into his cellar.

Temperatures on Saturday evening dipped to 17 degrees; the last time it was this cold, this early, in southwestern Idaho was more than two decades ago, in 1985.


BBC admits no global warming in the past decade at least, theorizes oceans to blame for global warming of 1990s:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

Ocean cycles

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."

Someone asks Al Gore a question he doesn't want to answer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cf-fzVH6v_U

[Treffie]

Nice to see that the BBC is perhaps seeing the other side of the argument for a change.

[SwordoftheVistula]

http://austriantimes.at/picture/f54mqblj.jpg/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken

http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-10-12/17147/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken

Austria’s provincial capitals are expected to see their earliest snowfalls in history today (Mon) as Arctic air sweeps the country.

Josef Haselhofer from Vienna’s Central Agency for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) said today (Mon) Arctic air would probably result in the first snow cover in provincial capitals before 20 October in history and said Innsbruck, Salzburg and St. Pölten were likely to see snow.

He said as much as 30 to 40 centimetres of snow was likely down to 1,200 metres and snow could fall as low as 400 metres later this week, adding it had already begun to fall in Vorarlberg. He also predicted low temperatures would be minus five degrees at higher elevations and zero degrees in the lowlands by Thursday morning.

Haselhofer warned of possible impassable snow drifts in some places and the danger of avalanches in low-lying areas.

Car club ÖAMTC reported today that chains were mandatory for all vehicles on stretches of the Arlbergstraße (L197), Lechtalstraße (L198) and the Silvretta-Hochalpenstraße (L188) in Vorarlberg.

The club said snow was falling down to 1,500 metres and the snow line would drop to as low as 900 metres in the province before it stopped snowing there.

The record for early snow in provincial capitals was set in 2007, when snow remained on the ground in some of them from 20 to 24 October. The average high in October, according to ZAMG, is 15 degrees.

The snow warnings come after weather records tumbled last week, with a number of places seeing records for the highest October temperature in many years, according to ZAMG.

It said records had been set on 7 October in Vienna-Donaufeld, with a high of 28.6 degrees, the highest in 50 years, and in Großenzersdorf, Lower Austria, with a high of 28.5 degrees, the warmest October day there in history.

[Octothorpe]

Our local meteorologist, Gil, has shown in the public records that global maximum average temperatures peaked in 1998, and have been going down ever since. And here in No. IL, we had a cool, rainy summer, a warm, sunny September, and now an October with daily average temperatures ten to fifteen degrees (F) below normal--in fact, closer to a mid-November average. "Global warming" my fuzzy butt! :p

[Sol Invictus]

I tell you, it is so cold here right now. We had frost advisories for the first time this fall, and it looks like the snow is going to be falling very very soon. I can't believe people actually believe this Global Warming stuff.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Greater NYC area hit with mid-October snowstorms:

http://wcbstv.com/local/snow.in.october.2.1250671.html

The tri-state was walloped by its first nor'easter of the season, and some parts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut saw heavy snow showers fall throughout the day.

CBS 2's Megan Glaros was in Vernon, N.J. where the flakes were still falling on Thursday evening.

"I hate it! This shouldn't be happening now," said Vernon resident Angela Warren. "I like it when it comes after Thanksgiving or right around Christmas, but it's too early for this."

The elevation in Vernon is about 550 feet, but CBS 2 drove to some higher elevations within the town and found snow sticking to cars, trees, roofs, and the grass.

"It's a little early, it's natural up here though," said Vernon resident Jack Valenti. "It's higher elevation up here. I talked to my brother back at home in Bergen County and it's raining down there, so, yeah, it's crazy."

CBS 2 spoke with many followers on Twitter, who reported snow all over the region, from Sparta in Sussex County, to Chappaqua in Westchester County, to Fishkill in Dutchess County, to Danbury in Fairfield County, Conn.

@edsteves wrote: "It's snowing in Newburgh NY! A little too early for my taste!"

@nycbklyngirl told @wcbstv it was snowing on I-80 and even took a picture of the thin blanket.

Even New York Jets kicker Jay Feely chimed in on the trending Twitter topic, writing on his Twitter account @jayfeely: "It is snowing here in Northern NJ right now!!! Mid October, way to early. [sic]"

WCBSTV.com Senior Producer Jeff Capellini snapped some video of the snow falling outside his home in Yorktown Heights in Westchester.

Sullivan County in northern New York was under a Winter Storm Watch and could see between 2 and 4 inches of snow by the time the storm exits. Dutchess and Ulster counties were under a Winter Storm Advisory and could produce 1 to 3 inches of snow when all is said and done.

[Lahtari]

The science is clear, what is less clear is whether world leaders will demonstrate the political will necessary to solve the problem

I know Soros is not a scientist, but he is echoing those who are, and I find it quite remarkable that just now while the scepticism has been rising it's voice, presenting hard and solid evidence against the other side, and loads of scientists, including top ones are moving into the sceptics camp, the other side loudly declares that "the debate is finished".

[Skandi]

One cold winter would not change a warming trend. The earth IS warming it is only the cause and effect that is up for debate really.

[Svipdag]

The only reason that there is any discussion of this question is that we humans are such short-lived critters that we cannot view anything sub specie æternitatis.

What happens in the time-frame of a few years or a few decades is irrelevant. Ever since tide gauges were installed on the shores of those of the world's civilised nations which have sea-shores, a secular rise of sea-level has been observed.

This is a long-term process and shows none of the interruptions and reversals which would arise on a short time scale owing to a few cold winters. The fact remains that the amount of water in the oceans is increasing . Where is it coming from ?

Although volcanic eruptions emit large quantities of water vapour, the total contribution to the volume of the oceans is negligible. The melting of glacial ice on the continents is the only process which is quantitatively adequate.


Except on a few mountains such as Rainier where a local micro-climate favours glacial advance, by far the vast majority of glaciers in the world are retreating, and, in so doing, adding water to the oceans.

On a time scale of centuries, global warming is occurring. It is a natural process, part of the cycle of glaciation and deglaciation which has been going on for about 1,800,000 years. I.e., we didn't start it and we can't stop it.

Earth is entering either an Interglacial Age or an Interstadial warm episode.
If the former, we face about 37,000 years of warming [13,000 having elapsed since the end of the Wisconsinan or Würm Glacial Age] or, if the latter, an unknown period of warming followed by a return to glacial conditions.

Based on the duration of past ice ages, I suspect strongly that we are entering an Interglacial Age. We and our activities are far too puny to have any significant effect on these natural processes. We can't stop global warming, so we'd damned well better learn to live with it, and FAST.

[Svipdag]

Now that I have said my say, it is time that I stated my qualifications to pontificate on this subject. I am a retired geologist. I have studied paleoclimatology, glaciology, glacial geology, and meteorology, and I have taught the latter two subjects at the college level. I can, therefore, confidently claim to know whereof I speak.

[Jägerstaffel]

Argument from authority.

[Svipdag]

Hardly. I do not ask anyone to take my word for anything. I merely ask to be taken seriously. I am not an ignorant crackpot sounding off. I really do know something about the subject.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Climatologists 'baffled'...maybe we shouldn't be so eager to jump off a cliff and shake up our entire industrial and transport sectors on their say-so.

http://www.spiegel.de/images/image-33920-galleryV9-nqph.jpg

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html

Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out


Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

At least the weather in Copenhagen is likely to be cooperating. The Danish Meteorological Institute predicts that temperatures in December, when the city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference, will be one degree above the long-term average.

Otherwise, however, not much is happening with global warming at the moment. The Earth's average temperatures have stopped climbing since the beginning of the millennium, and it even looks as though global warming could come to a standstill this year.

Ironically, climate change appears to have stalled in the run-up to the upcoming world summit in the Danish capital, where thousands of politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, business leaders and environmental activists plan to negotiate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Billions of euros are at stake in the negotiations.

Reached a Plateau

The planet's temperature curve rose sharply for almost 30 years, as global temperatures increased by an average of 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.25 degrees Fahrenheit) from the 1970s to the late 1990s. "At present, however, the warming is taking a break," confirms meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the northern German city of Kiel. Latif, one of Germany's best-known climatologists, says that the temperature curve has reached a plateau. "There can be no argument about that," he says. "We have to face that fact."

Even though the temperature standstill probably has no effect on the long-term warming trend, it does raise doubts about the predictive value of climate models, and it is also a political issue. For months, climate change skeptics have been gloating over the findings on their Internet forums. This has prompted many a climatologist to treat the temperature data in public with a sense of shame, thereby damaging their own credibility.

"It cannot be denied that this is one of the hottest issues in the scientific community," says Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. "We don't really know why this stagnation is taking place at this point."

Just a few weeks ago, Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research added more fuel to the fire with its latest calculations of global average temperatures. According to the Hadley figures, the world grew warmer by 0.07 degrees Celsius from 1999 to 2008 and not by the 0.2 degrees Celsius assumed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And, say the British experts, when their figure is adjusted for two naturally occurring climate phenomena, El Niño and La Niña, the resulting temperature trend is reduced to 0.0 degrees Celsius -- in other words, a standstill.

The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost three degrees Celsius, which led to a dramatic melting of sea ice. At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany, remains slightly in positive warming territory.

Mixed Messages

But a few scientists simply refuse to believe the British calculations. "Warming has continued in the last few years," says Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). However, Rahmstorf is more or less alone in his view. Hamburg Max Planck Institute scientist Jochem Marotzke, on the other hand, says: "I hardly know any colleagues who would deny that it hasn't gotten warmer in recent years."

The controversy sends confusing and mixed messages to the lay public. Why is there such a vigorous debate over climate change, even though it isn't getting warmer at the moment? And how can it be that scientists cannot even arrive at a consensus on changes in temperatures, even though temperatures are constantly being measured?

The global temperature-monitoring network consists of 517 weather stations. But each reading is only a tiny dot on the big world map, and it has to be extrapolated to the entire region with the help of supercomputers. Besides, there are still many blind spots, the largest being the Arctic, where there are only about 20 measuring stations to cover a vast area. Climatologists refer to the problem as the "Arctic hole."

The scientists at the Hadley Center simply used the global average value for the hole, ignoring the fact that it has become significantly warmer in the Arctic, says Rahmstorf. But a NASA team from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, which does make the kinds of adjustments for the Arctic data that Rahmstorf believes are necessary, arrives at a flat temperature curve for the last five years that is similar to that of their British colleagues.

Marotzke and Leibniz Institute meteorologist Mojib Latif are even convinced that the fuzzy computing done by Rahmstorf is counterproductive. "We have to explain to the public that greenhouse gases will not cause temperatures to keep rising from one record temperature to the next, but that they are still subject to natural fluctuations," says Latif. For this reason, he adds, it is dangerous to cite individual weather-related occurrences, such as a drought in Mali or a hurricane, as proof positive that climate change is already fully underway.

"Perhaps we suggested too strongly in the past that the development will continue going up along a simple, straight line. In reality, phases of stagnation or even cooling are completely normal," says Latif.

Climatologists use their computer models to draw temperature curves that continue well into the future. They predict that the average global temperature will increase by about three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, unless humanity manages to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, no one really knows what exactly the world climate will look like in the not-so-distant future, that is, in 2015, 2030 or 2050.

This is because it is not just human influence but natural factors that affect the Earth's climate. For instance, currents in the world's oceans are subject to certain cycles, as is solar activity. Major volcanic eruptions can also curb rising temperatures in the medium term. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, for example, caused world temperatures to drop by an average of 0.5 degrees Celsius, thereby prolonging a cooler climate phase that had begun in the late 1980s.

But the Mount Pinatubo eruption happened too long ago to be related to the current slowdown in global warming. So what is behind this more recent phenomenon?

Weaker Solar Activity

The fact is that the sun is weakening slightly. Its radiation activity is currently at a minimum, as evidenced by the small number of sunspots on its surface. According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of stagnating global warming.

Latif, on the other hand, attributes the stagnation to so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). This phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean allows a larger volume of cold deep-sea water to rise to the surface at the equator. According to Latif, this has a significant cooling effect on the Earth's atmosphere.

With his team at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Latif has been one of the first to develop a model to create medium-term prognoses for the next five to 10 years. "We are slowly starting to attempt (such models)," says Marotzke, who is also launching a major project in this area, funded by the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology.

Despite their current findings, scientists agree that temperatures will continue to rise in the long term. The big question is: When will it start getting warmer again?

If the deep waters of the Pacific are, in fact, the most important factor holding up global warming, climate change will remain at a standstill until the middle of the next decade, says Latif. But if the cooling trend is the result of reduced solar activity, things could start getting warmer again much sooner. Based on past experience, solar activity will likely increase again in the next few years.

Betting on Warmer Temperatures

The Hadley Center group expects warming to resume in the coming years. "That resumption could come as a bit of a jolt," says Hadley climatologist Adam Scaife, explaining that natural cyclical warming would then be augmented by the warming effect caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

While climatologists at conferences engage in passionate debates over when temperatures will start rising again, global warming's next steps have also become the subject of betting activity.

Climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf is so convinced that his predictions will be correct in the end that he is willing to back up his conviction with a €2,500 ($3,700) bet. "I will win," says Rahmstorf.

His adversary Latif turned down the bet, saying that the matter was too serious for gambling. "We are scientists, not poker players."

[Monolith]

Here's an interesting chart:

http://www.longrangeweather.com/images/GTEMPS.gif