RussiaPrussia
10-04-2013, 12:04 PM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/08/14/reports-of-the-death-of-russias-oil-sector-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/
http://b-i.forbesimg.com/markadomanis/files/2013/08/Russia-US-Europe-Oil.png
That chart shows quite clearly why Russia’s share of world production has held steady: because all of America’s new “unconventional” oil has been barely enough to offset Europe’s production nosedive. In 2012, the net oil imports of America’s close military and political allies in Western Europe were near an all-time high*, while Russia’s net oil exports were actually at an all-time high. Why exactly that is supposed to be an awful situation for the Russians, or particularly beneficial for the United States, is not clear. The idea that the US is going to retreat from the international scene because it has achieved “energy security” is hard to square with the fact that our NATO allies are now more energy insecure than at any time in the recent past. The US, in other words, is going to be deeply invested in securing sea lanes and facilitating the flow of oil for a long time to come because its partners and allies don’t have any oil.
Is it still possible that the “energy revolution” will catapult America out of its current economic and political malaise? Absolutely. Almost anything is possible. But so far the highly touted fracking revolution has largely been a story of new American production offsetting production declines in Europe, not American production driving down prices or displacing exports from scary places like Russia, Iran, or Saudi Arabia. And for all of the vitriol that it attracts in the Western press, the data shows that Russia’s oil sector is doing OK: not booming like America’s, but also not in terminal decline like Europe’s.
http://b-i.forbesimg.com/markadomanis/files/2013/08/Russia-US-Europe-Oil.png
That chart shows quite clearly why Russia’s share of world production has held steady: because all of America’s new “unconventional” oil has been barely enough to offset Europe’s production nosedive. In 2012, the net oil imports of America’s close military and political allies in Western Europe were near an all-time high*, while Russia’s net oil exports were actually at an all-time high. Why exactly that is supposed to be an awful situation for the Russians, or particularly beneficial for the United States, is not clear. The idea that the US is going to retreat from the international scene because it has achieved “energy security” is hard to square with the fact that our NATO allies are now more energy insecure than at any time in the recent past. The US, in other words, is going to be deeply invested in securing sea lanes and facilitating the flow of oil for a long time to come because its partners and allies don’t have any oil.
Is it still possible that the “energy revolution” will catapult America out of its current economic and political malaise? Absolutely. Almost anything is possible. But so far the highly touted fracking revolution has largely been a story of new American production offsetting production declines in Europe, not American production driving down prices or displacing exports from scary places like Russia, Iran, or Saudi Arabia. And for all of the vitriol that it attracts in the Western press, the data shows that Russia’s oil sector is doing OK: not booming like America’s, but also not in terminal decline like Europe’s.