Reddit Ancient Model

Notice for Greeks. Anatolian may create an overfit, causing a lower Greek percentage, so try modelling with and without Anatolian. The change to the distance % may be minimal, indicating an overfit.

Code:

---

Anatolian,0.1073731,0.1481632,-0.0318813,-0.0632749,-0.0014046,-0.0231908,0.0001687,-0.0052069,-0.0072632,0.018303,0.0043595,0.0033508,-0.0056643,0.0032042,-0.0141531,-0.0030666,0.0056132,0.0007277,0.0049216,-0.0047843,-0.0031803,0.002622,-0.0017634,-0.0007879,-0.0014277
Amazigh,-0.0899205,0.136081,0.0032055,-0.0776815,0.035545,-0.0397415,-0.034077,0.0083075,0.09766,0.0297955,0.007632,-0.011315,0.028543,-0.02085,0.0249045,-0.0140545,0.003781,-0.030279,-0.05801,0.014757,-0.0178435,-0.0474825,0.021815,-0.011568,0.010119
Arabian,0.044448,0.144713,-0.059378,-0.117541,-0.008709,-0.048764,-0.014207,-0.009069,0.052951,-0.003973,0.016117,-0.030416,0.063263,0.004762,0.004818,0.027883,-0.021702,0.003142,-0.003432,0.029564,0.011929,0.015451,-0.004104,0.006850,-0.008748
Balkan,0.1240248,0.1517413,0.0201800,-0.0224576,0.0286000,-0.0100120,-0.0001450,-0.0009012,0.0061679,0.0299955,0.0027403,0.0069553,-0.0138934,-0.0039047,-0.0125894,-0.0023160,0.0068237,0.0021433,0.0072554,-0.0070664,-0.0089171,0.0045935,-0.0011560,0.0043126,-0.0017804
Bulgar,0.0875794,-0.1186851,0.0703279,0.0462278,-0.0457662,0.0004012,0.0045986,0.0057238,-0.0131025,-0.0242801,-0.0069555,-0.0011277,0.0023117,-0.0157495,0.0150784,0.0012691,-0.0115338,0.0004507,0.0022112,0.0068453,-0.0173337,0.0021481,-0.0009199,0.004288,-0.0040285
Caucasian,0.1095548,0.1261231,-0.050639,-0.0415952,-0.0365024,-0.0062751,0.0091197,-0.0066664,-0.0568576,-0.0188766,0.0003474,0.0109944,-0.0224436,0.0027525,0.0025185,-0.0168536,0.0097788,-0.004779,-0.0080202,0.0127874,0.0096601,0.0020163,0.0005033,-0.0064231,-0.0024416
Celtic,0.1286144,0.1365992,0.0603191,0.0477174,0.0397652,0.018095,0.0025894,0.0052604,0.00586,0.00549,-0.0045136,0.0075954,-0.0154132,-0.0154822,0.0231766,0.0043628,-0.0086644,0.0010002,0.0031802,0.003599,0.0050284,0.0040329,-0.0024906,0.0081587,-0.0009118
Germanic,0.1275056,0.1324207,0.0686674,0.0579718,0.0432196,0.0218986,0.0062424,0.0078218,0.004964,-0.0038914,-0.0037755,0.0037996,-0.0073866,-0.007076,0.018755,0.0066404,-0.0095262,0.0025708,0.0038732,0.0047132,0.0071385,0.0047657,-0.0021184,0.0120925,0.0010128
Greek,0.1199695,0.1605553,0.0013952,-0.0534888,0.0255431,-0.0199687,0.0007755,-0.0055152,0.0061153,0.0394176,0.0030040,0.0083175,-0.0150891,-0.0007156,-0.0206567,-0.0029568,0.0088661,0.0002406,0.0067877,-0.0110178,-0.0128148,0.0016693,0.0024896,0.0039282,-0.0035325
Han_Empire,0.0174528,-0.4500488,0.0084539,-0.0618007,0.056549,0.0182209,0.0053463,0.0012308,-0.0099364,0.0068795,-0.0743873,-0.0097038,0.0099602,-0.0072481,-0.0056098,-0.0006849,0.0004455,0.000454,-0.0056984,-0.0107864,0.0153063,0.0059455,0.0124481,-0.0020082,-0.0000898
Huns,0.0891073,-0.0800819,0.0446619,0.0156424,-0.0228614,-0.0034263,0.0084267,0.0063294,-0.0090867,-0.0120274,-0.0150557,-0.0009846,-0.0016563,-0.0089849,0.0041101,0.0046784,0.0000931,-0.0014117,0.0029809,0.0077714,-0.0092873,0.0032856,-0.0013733,0.0025303,0.0016594
Iranic,0.091969,0.110287,-0.094129,-0.025517,-0.072259,0.004853,0.006345,0.001154,-0.062257,-0.029996,-0.005099,-0.000360,-0.002468,-0.001927,0.011292,0.023150,-0.001304,-0.003522,0.002690,-0.009305,0.000799,-0.008878,-0.001307,-0.012098,0.010346
Italic,0.1273679,0.1560363,0.0385858,-0.0143008,0.0478036,-0.007981,0.0010751,0.0019115,0.0236702,0.0442485,-0.0025683,0.0091281,-0.0207629,-0.0079948,-0.0037653,-0.0028253,0.0052457,0.0034426,0.0057234,-0.004204,-0.0035707,0.0048295,-0.0030576,-0.0078986,-0.0002625
Levantine,0.081270,0.145221,-0.058227,-0.091151,-0.015941,-0.032909,-0.007379,-0.007107,0.011331,0.009549,0.006268,-0.009052,0.017483,0.001596,-0.004641,0.010501,0.001330,0.000811,0.001710,0.000875,0.002471,0.005639,-0.004930,0.001325,-0.005556
Maghreb_East,-0.048517,0.131384,-0.015085,-0.075138,0.019619,-0.030678,-0.022091,0.005019,0.054378,0.019795,0.005440,-0.008037,0.026740,-0.010184,0.013046,-0.007143,-0.003716,-0.012922,-0.029005,0.005174,-0.010450,-0.022829,0.018117,-0.003344,0.000210
Maghreb_West,-0.085367,0.130213,-0.012822,-0.070881,0.021132,-0.032940,-0.027783,0.009769,0.055403,0.024399,0.009509,-0.009025,0.026990,-0.014466,0.016302,-0.006188,-0.002767,-0.017033,-0.038422,0.009435,-0.009844,-0.029512,0.020911,-0.001125,0.005921
North_Africa,-0.072847,0.142174,0.003017,-0.072352,0.034776,-0.037371,-0.034312,0.008077,0.08999,0.032985,0.011367,-0.010191,0.027354,-0.016515,0.024701,-0.01485,0.001825,-0.026605,-0.053799,0.008004,-0.015847,-0.044515,0.020829,-0.012532,0.01449
Slavic,0.12982144,0.12536161,0.07544506,0.06948089,0.0446065,0.02496072,0.00664556,0.01398656,-0.002227,-0.02032939,-0.00153361,-0.00680222,0.0134125,0.02088806,-0.0120715,0.00386711,0.00927906,-0.00035894,0.00065633,0.00334183,-0.00087344,-0.00371639,0.00768933,-0.00581072,0.00449722
Sub_Saharan_Africa,-0.52131,0.03859,-0.008297,0.007106,0.000923,-0.01004,0.086249,-0.066459,0.075878,-0.066881,-0.01023,0.007493,-0.030624,-0.001239,0.015065,-0.016043,0.021122,0.039527,-0.005028,-0.001126,-0.007612,-0.005812,-0.001725,0.003012,-0.001197

---

https://i.ibb.co/4g8cQqPY/image.png

Target: LB_scaled
Distance: 3.2511% / 0.03251099
53.4 Greek
33.0 Slavic
8.0 Anatolian
5.6 Iranic

Target: Nephew_scaled
Distance: 2.1143% / 0.02114278
67.6 Greek
23.8 Slavic
7.4 Iranic
1.2 Han_Empire

Without Anatolian

Target: LB_scaled
Distance: 3.2552% / 0.03255242
59.6 Greek
32.4 Slavic
7.6 Iranic
0.4 Arabian

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 2.7631% / 0.02763104
61.4 Slavic
35.0 Greek
2.6 Caucasian
1.0 Bulgar



Without Greek, to get Balkan component:

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 2.9164% / 0.02916398
57.8 Slavic
27.6 Balkan
14.2 Anatolian
0.4 Italic

Target: Peterski_scaled
Distance: 2.2843% / 0.02284335
67.8 Slavic
23.0 Germanic
7.6 Greek
1.6 Iranic

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lockdownboredom

Notice for Greeks. Anatolian may create an overfit, causing a lower Greek percentage, so try modelling with and without Anatolian. The change to the distance % may be minimal, indicating an overfit.

---

I think that Roman colonization of Balkans with population from Anatolia was quite massive.

I created this small calculator that gave me closest distance, and it gave me more Anatolian than native Balkan ancetry.

Code:

---

Slavic*(AD*540–1270):Slav*(Krakauer*Berg):KRA011,0.130897,0.132019,0.082212,0.069768,0.050163,0.026216,0.012926,0.009923,0.002454,-0.019135,-0.002111,-0.008692,0.014717,0.023533,-0.012486,-0.011005,-0.004172,0.002154,0.006034,0.006003,-0.006738,-0.01014,0.007395,-0.004217,0.003592
Byzantine*Anatolia*(AD*500–1100):Northwest*Anatolian:TUR_Marmara_Balikesir_Byz:I14820__AD_1560__Coverage_70.87%,0.106994,0.146236,-0.021119,-0.050711,0.001539,-0.014223,0.00329,0.002769,-0.007772,0.018041,0.000325,0.008692,-0.003271,0.014588,-0.012893,-0.015115,-0.010561,-0.0019,-0.004274,-0.00988,-0.003868,0.000124,-0.004067,-0.010242,0.000239
Thracian*(1100–200*BC):Thracian:BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA,0.1206523,0.1614692,0.0083593,-0.0527028,0.0323137,-0.0258903,0.001645,-0.0029232,0.012033,0.0480497,0.0018675,0.0096915,-0.0182605,0.0016517,-0.023525,-0.0100547,0.011213,0.0040962,0.0112082,-0.0087542,-0.010024,0.0014218,-0.0033688,0.001044,-0.0068658
Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550):Rouran*Khaganate:Avar_Core_2:HUN_late_Avar:CSPF213__AD_725__unknown_coverage,0.037562,-0.369653,0.086361,-0.023256,-0.069551,-0.04518,0.014806,0.017538,0.004704,0.004374,-0.009581,-0.003297,-0.009812,-0.000275,-0.004207,-0.005569,-0.004172,-0.00076,0.004777,0.007379,-0.018093,-0.000124,-0.013434,-0.000361,-0.005868

---

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 1.5181% / 0.01518056
60.2 Slavic*(AD*540–1270):Slav*(Krakauer*Berg):KRA011
21.6 Byzantine*Anatolia*(AD*500–1100):Northwest*Anatoli an:TUR_Marmara_Balikesir_Byz:I14820__AD_1560__Cove rage_70.87%
17.2 Thracian*(1100–200*BC):Thracian:BGR_KapitanAndreev o_IA
1.0 Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550):Rouran*Khaganate:Ava r_Core_2:HUN_late_Avar:CSPF213__AD_725__unknown_co verage




Distance to: Slavic*(AD*540–1270):Slav*(Krakauer*Berg):KRA011
0.02201335 Belarusian
0.02318633 Russian_Smolensk
0.02493247 Polish_Kashubian
0.02649932 Lithuanian_PA
0.02707809 Ukrainian_Zhytomyr

Distance to: Byzantine*Anatolia*(AD*500–1100):Northwest*Anatoli an:TUR_Marmara_Balikesir_Byz:I14820__AD_1560__Cove rage_70.87%
0.03175447 Greek_Crete
0.03186968 Turkish_Crete
0.03338888 Greek_Deep_Mani
0.03346596 Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
0.03346844 Greek_Dodecanese

Distance to: Thracian*(1100–200*BC):Thracian:BGR_KapitanAndreev o_IA
0.04893541 Italian_Lazio
0.04965882 French_Corsica
0.05053570 Italian_Apulia
0.05195990 Italian_Umbria
0.05209123 Greek_Apulia

Distance to: Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550):Rouran*Khaganate:Ava r_Core_2:HUN_late_Avar:CSPF213__AD_725__unknown_co verage
0.02947591 Khamnegan
0.03331103 Buryat
0.04653283 Tuvinian
0.05093461 Mogush
0.05373808 Mongol

Target: Figaro
Distance: 1.8676% / 0.01867595
48.8 Germanic
28.4 Slavic
16.0 Greek
3.4 Bulgar
2.8 Celtic
0.4 North_Africa
0.2 Caucasian

I used .25x to get anything less than 1% off the result.

Target: SC_Ave_IllustrativeDNA
Distance: 2.0592% / 0.02059152 | ADC: 0.25x RC
40.8 Germanic
38.6 Celtic
12.6 Slavic
4.6 Caucasian
2.0 Iranic
1.4 Bulgar

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dušan

I think that Roman colonization of Balkans with population from Anatolia was quite massive.

I created this small calculator that gave me closest distance, and it gave me more Anatolian than native Balkan ancetry.

Code:

---

Slavic*(AD*540–1270):Slav*(Krakauer*Berg):KRA011,0.130897,0.132019,0.082212,0.069768,0.050163,0.026216,0.012926,0.009923,0.002454,-0.019135,-0.002111,-0.008692,0.014717,0.023533,-0.012486,-0.011005,-0.004172,0.002154,0.006034,0.006003,-0.006738,-0.01014,0.007395,-0.004217,0.003592
Byzantine*Anatolia*(AD*500–1100):Northwest*Anatolian:TUR_Marmara_Balikesir_Byz:I14820__AD_1560__Coverage_70.87%,0.106994,0.146236,-0.021119,-0.050711,0.001539,-0.014223,0.00329,0.002769,-0.007772,0.018041,0.000325,0.008692,-0.003271,0.014588,-0.012893,-0.015115,-0.010561,-0.0019,-0.004274,-0.00988,-0.003868,0.000124,-0.004067,-0.010242,0.000239
Thracian*(1100–200*BC):Thracian:BGR_KapitanAndreevo_IA,0.1206523,0.1614692,0.0083593,-0.0527028,0.0323137,-0.0258903,0.001645,-0.0029232,0.012033,0.0480497,0.0018675,0.0096915,-0.0182605,0.0016517,-0.023525,-0.0100547,0.011213,0.0040962,0.0112082,-0.0087542,-0.010024,0.0014218,-0.0033688,0.001044,-0.0068658
Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550):Rouran*Khaganate:Avar_Core_2:HUN_late_Avar:CSPF213__AD_725__unknown_coverage,0.037562,-0.369653,0.086361,-0.023256,-0.069551,-0.04518,0.014806,0.017538,0.004704,0.004374,-0.009581,-0.003297,-0.009812,-0.000275,-0.004207,-0.005569,-0.004172,-0.00076,0.004777,0.007379,-0.018093,-0.000124,-0.013434,-0.000361,-0.005868

---

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 1.5181% / 0.01518056
60.2 Slavic*(AD*540–1270):Slav*(Krakauer*Berg):KRA011
21.6 Byzantine*Anatolia*(AD*500–1100):Northwest*Anatoli an:TUR_Marmara_Balikesir_Byz:I14820__AD_1560__Cove rage_70.87%
17.2 Thracian*(1100–200*BC):Thracian:BGR_KapitanAndreev o_IA
1.0 Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550):Rouran*Khaganate:Ava r_Core_2:HUN_late_Avar:CSPF213__AD_725__unknown_co verage

---

https://i.ibb.co/B2JSHHYK/image.png

That's a rather European shifted Anatolian. What's your fit without it? How is the fit when Anatolian is excluded and these coords are included:

Code:

---

Arabian,0.044448,0.144713,-0.059378,-0.117541,-0.008709,-0.048764,-0.014207,-0.009069,0.052951,-0.003973,0.016117,-0.030416,0.063263,0.004762,0.004818,0.027883,-0.021702,0.003142,-0.003432,0.029564,0.011929,0.015451,-0.004104,0.006850,-0.008748
Caucasian,0.1095548,0.1261231,-0.050639,-0.0415952,-0.0365024,-0.0062751,0.0091197,-0.0066664,-0.0568576,-0.0188766,0.0003474,0.0109944,-0.0224436,0.0027525,0.0025185,-0.0168536,0.0097788,-0.004779,-0.0080202,0.0127874,0.0096601,0.0020163,0.0005033,-0.0064231,-0.0024416
Iranic,0.091969,0.110287,-0.094129,-0.025517,-0.072259,0.004853,0.006345,0.001154,-0.062257,-0.029996,-0.005099,-0.000360,-0.002468,-0.001927,0.011292,0.023150,-0.001304,-0.003522,0.002690,-0.009305,0.000799,-0.008878,-0.001307,-0.012098,0.010346
Levantine,0.081270,0.145221,-0.058227,-0.091151,-0.015941,-0.032909,-0.007379,-0.007107,0.011331,0.009549,0.006268,-0.009052,0.017483,0.001596,-0.004641,0.010501,0.001330,0.000811,0.001710,0.000875,0.002471,0.005639,-0.004930,0.001325,-0.005556

---

You probably need a Western Balkan/Illyrian source, the higher Steppe may reduce your Slavic. Also your Slavic sample is very Balto-Slavic shifted which likely causes the algorithm to inflate a Middle Eastern component to compensate.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by lockdownboredom

https://i.ibb.co/B2JSHHYK/image.png

That's a rather European shifted Anatolian. What's your fit without it? How is the fit when Anatolian is excluded and these coords are included:

Code:

---

Arabian,0.044448,0.144713,-0.059378,-0.117541,-0.008709,-0.048764,-0.014207,-0.009069,0.052951,-0.003973,0.016117,-0.030416,0.063263,0.004762,0.004818,0.027883,-0.021702,0.003142,-0.003432,0.029564,0.011929,0.015451,-0.004104,0.006850,-0.008748
Caucasian,0.1095548,0.1261231,-0.050639,-0.0415952,-0.0365024,-0.0062751,0.0091197,-0.0066664,-0.0568576,-0.0188766,0.0003474,0.0109944,-0.0224436,0.0027525,0.0025185,-0.0168536,0.0097788,-0.004779,-0.0080202,0.0127874,0.0096601,0.0020163,0.0005033,-0.0064231,-0.0024416
Iranic,0.091969,0.110287,-0.094129,-0.025517,-0.072259,0.004853,0.006345,0.001154,-0.062257,-0.029996,-0.005099,-0.000360,-0.002468,-0.001927,0.011292,0.023150,-0.001304,-0.003522,0.002690,-0.009305,0.000799,-0.008878,-0.001307,-0.012098,0.010346
Levantine,0.081270,0.145221,-0.058227,-0.091151,-0.015941,-0.032909,-0.007379,-0.007107,0.011331,0.009549,0.006268,-0.009052,0.017483,0.001596,-0.004641,0.010501,0.001330,0.000811,0.001710,0.000875,0.002471,0.005639,-0.004930,0.001325,-0.005556

---

You probably need a Western Balkan/Illyrian source, the higher Steppe may reduce your Slavic. Also your Slavic sample is very Balto-Slavic shifted which likely causes the algorithm to inflate a Middle Eastern component to compensate.

---

Here:

Target: Dušan_scaled
Distance: 1.7305% / 0.01730450
60.8 Slavic*(AD*540–1270)
29.4 Thracian*(1100–200*BC)
8.8 Caucasian
1.0 Rouran*Khaganate*(AD*330–550)

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
0.02373169 Celtic
0.03846567 Germanic
0.08612583 Italic
0.08870896 Slavic
0.09350616 Balkan
0.13325241 Greek
0.15692482 Anatolian
0.17973066 Caucasian
0.19992285 Levantine
0.22349419 Iranic
0.23812083 Huns
0.24491234 Maghreb_East
0.25118825 Arabian
0.27426601 Maghreb_West
0.27979998 North_Africa
0.28122788 Bulgar
0.29866232 Amazigh
0.61588455 Han_Empire
0.68551351 Sub_Saharan_Africa

Target: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
Distance: 0.0204% / 0.02035496
91.7 Celtic
4.5 Levantine
3.8 Italic

Distance to: Gannicus_MergedFile_officialDavidski_scaled
0.02039931 4.60% Arabian + 95.40% Celtic
0.02052483 94.40% Celtic + 5.60% Levantine
0.02083295 92.00% Celtic + 8.00% Greek
0.02098953 10.80% Balkan + 89.20% Celtic
0.02110430 6.60% Anatolian + 93.40% Celtic
0.02147406 89.20% Celtic + 10.80% Italic
0.02244784 97.00% Celtic + 3.00% Maghreb_East
0.02270343 97.60% Celtic + 2.40% Maghreb_West
0.02277639 97.60% Celtic + 2.40% North_Africa
0.02283618 2.20% Amazigh + 97.80% Celtic
0.02291919 3.40% Caucasian + 96.60% Celtic
0.02314184 97.60% Celtic + 2.40% Iranic
0.02688375 74.80% Germanic + 25.20% Italic
0.02714027 82.80% Germanic + 17.20% Greek
0.02717907 23.40% Balkan + 76.60% Germanic
0.02883521 14.20% Anatolian + 85.80% Germanic
0.02923626 88.80% Germanic + 11.20% Levantine
0.03175916 8.00% Arabian + 92.00% Germanic
0.03359637 9.60% Caucasian + 90.40% Germanic
0.03430464 93.40% Germanic + 6.60% Maghreb_East