Who, genetically, are the least Slavic of the Slavs?

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12-06-2021, 10:37 AM
Jana

Serbs pre-Slavic is modeled with both Illyrians and Thracians and that should be realistic and in line with their position in Balkans.

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.2317% / 0.01231690

32.0 (Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA009
28.0 Balkan:BGR_IA_I5769
14.4 Balkan:HRV_IA_I3313
13.4 (Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA011
8.4 Balkan:HUN_MA_Szolad_SZ43
3.4 (Balto-)Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad_Av2
0.4 (Balto-)Slavic:Moravia_POH13

with Montenegrins I removed Thracians, as they have no such blood. Slavic goes down to around 40% and fit is still exceptional.

Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.4128% / 0.01412840

35.0 Balkan:HUN_MA_Szolad_SZ43
24.4 (Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA009
23.8 Balkan:HRV_IA_I3313
15.4 (Balto-)Slavic:DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA_KRA001
1.4 (Balto-)Slavic:HUN_Avar_Szolad_Av2

aggregated

Target: Montenegrin
Distance: 1.4128% / 0.01412840

58.8 Balkan
41.2 (Balto-)Slavic

Target: Serbian
Distance: 1.5453% / 0.01545250

58.2 Balkan
41.8 (Balto-)Slavic

Serb G25 average is heavily Montenenigga shifted so Bosnian and Croatian, and even many Serbian Serbs will be more Slavic than that, up to half and above half.
But old models where some ppl get like 70% "Slavic" etc look to be completely off.

This figures I get are in line with models of that unreleased Reich paper. If there were Dalmatian Croats on G25, they'd probably model little bit above 50% Slav just like in the paper.
Croatian average on G25 from Zagreb isn't of much use in this because it's filled with heavily German admixed samples.
12-06-2021, 10:44 AM
Jana

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

I guess Macedonians. Or Pomaks; The latter could maybe get under the proto Slav level of Macedonians if they additionally assimilated some Anatolian Turks.

I agree.

If you have G25 coords I'd be curious about the result in the calculator in my signature. I regard that calculator good, especially also the tranparency where the single ancient source samples are visible.

Here's a pic I made some time ago for a number of ethnicities out of that mentioned calculator. Here Bulgarians do have the lowest level (38.2%) among Slavic speakers. Unfortunately Macedonians are not contained in the table.

https://i.imgur.com/ErAgu23.jpg

I must fix that calc. Roman samples should be removed and Sunghir6 for Slavic also, that sample does not plot like other early Slavs. He even has some Siberian and is more southern than them.
12-06-2021, 10:46 AM
Jana

I realized making calculators with "one size fits all" is a failure. Slovenians require different pre-Slavic samples than Bulgarians do, so if I put both in same calc results can get skewed.
And better fit can often be misleading.

It's best to make personalized models for every ethnicity in line with their known ethnogenesis when selecting applicable samples.
For example with Thracian added in I get more Slavic than without and tighter fit, but that is obviously misleading because Thracians took no part in ethnogenesis of Croats. etc.
12-06-2021, 10:55 AM
Jana

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

EDIT: It seems not to be Macedonians as they seem to have more than Bulgarians:

Target: Macedonian
Distance: 0.7305% / 0.00730540
46.4 (Balto-)Slavic
37.0 Graeco-Roman
16.6 Balkan

It's from capital Skopje and there are some samples mixed with Serbs and Bosniaks (and even Croats I heard), hence more northern. David's G25 modern averages for south Slavs are very poor and unfiltered academics. Since he has no interest in south Slavs he never bothered to fix or improve them like some others. His modern averages are shitty in general.
12-06-2021, 11:00 AM
Leto

Oh boy, this fucking saga never ends :bored0:
12-06-2021, 11:05 AM
rothaer

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stearsolina

I must fix that calc. Roman samples should be removed and Sunghir6 for Slavic also, that sample does not plot like other early Slavs. He even has some Siberian and is more southern than them.

It doesn't change much if Sunghir6 is removed. But on the north Europe PCA Sunghir6 (marked) plots inconspicious among the other reference samples imo.

https://i.imgur.com/eyQISwI.jpg
12-06-2021, 11:13 AM
vbnetkhio

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

I guess Macedonians or Bulgarians or Pomaks; The latter could maybe get under the proto Slav level of Macedonians if they additionally assimilated some Anatolian Turks.

I agree.

If you have G25 coords I'd be curious about the result in the calculator in my signature. I regard that calculator good, especially also the tranparency where the single ancient source samples are visible.

Here's a pic I made some time ago for a number of ethnicities out of that mentioned calculator. Here Bulgarians do have the lowest level (38.2%) among Slavic speakers. Unfortunately Macedonians are not contained in the table.

https://i.imgur.com/ErAgu23.jpg

I don't have them, but this one is the most similar to me (on gedmatch) so you can try it.

Code:

Serbian:725,0.130897,0.135065,0.043369,0.01615,0.024312,0.005578,0.015041,0.010153,-0.000818,-0.005285,0.001624,0.001499,0.000892,0.019267,-0.021444,0.007955,0.010822,0.009755,0.001131,-0.003752,-0.016221,-0.00371,0.003204,-0.009399,-0.010059

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

EDIT: It seems not to be Macedonians as they seem to have more than Bulgarians:

Target: Macedonian
Distance: 0.7305% / 0.00730540
46.4 (Balto-)Slavic
37.0 Graeco-Roman
16.6 Balkan

The official average includes only 5 samples of which one is an outlier . Try out this average of 24 samples:

Code:

Macedonia,0.124778625,0.142343416666667,0.024622833333333,-0.004643125,0.026325375,-0.000697291666667,0.0031725,0.001355625,0.000698708333333,0.009590125,0.000264,0.001036541666667,-0.001201666666667,0.008458125,-0.015195041666667,-0.002662916666667,0.006399708333333,0.000258625,0.004718916666667,-0.004731375,-0.008635833333333,7.2125E-05,0.002932291666667,-5.12499999999992E-06,-0.001322166666667

The Bulgarian average also includes only 5 samples, so it could be misleading.
12-06-2021, 11:16 AM
Jana

Quote:

Originally Posted by rothaer

It doesn't change much if Sunghir6 is removed. But on the north Europe PCA Sunghir6 (marked) plots inconspicious among the other reference samples imo.

https://i.imgur.com/eyQISwI.jpg

Maybe but these other all get Lithuanians and Belarusians in modern Oracles first, Sunhgir gets Ukrainians and south Russians iirc (did not check)
And on K13 Sunghir visibly more southern than them plus some Siberian too.
12-06-2021, 11:27 AM
Jana

Sunghir doesn't look that pure compared to other ancient Slavs I posted IMHO, who all fall on Lithuanian-Belorussian cline.

Distance to: (Balto-)Slavic:RUS_Sunghir_MA_Sunghir6

0.01733881 Russian_Orel
0.01833350 Ukrainian
0.01925938 Russian_Voronez
0.02011280 Russian_Kursk
0.02026939 Russian_Belgorod
0.02107801 Russian_Smolensk
0.02129694 Cossack_Ukrainian
0.02137321 Belarusian
0.02247498 Russian_Ryazan
0.02253362 Polish
0.02533379 Russian_Kaluga
0.02607523 Russian_Tver
0.02858635 Lithuanian_PA
0.02990697 Russian_Pskov
0.03093027 Sorb_Niederlausitz
0.03176859 Moldovan_o
0.03252521 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.03284131 Lithuanian_VA
0.03495268 Polish_Kashubian
0.03633967 Slovakian
0.03749295 Lithuanian_RA
0.03883709 Lithuanian_VZ
0.03976665 Czech
0.04059059 Nordva_Moksha
0.04071447 Estonian
12-06-2021, 11:30 AM
Ajeje Brazorf

I think the Slavic ancestry of Balkanians is Polish-like.

Code:

Distance to: AV1_Hungary_Avar_1361_ybp 2.51037846 Ukrainian_Galicia 3.35052235 South_Polish 3.92331492 Polish_Silesia 4.01662794 Polish_Southeast 4.34316705 Moldova_Ukrainian Distance to: AV2_Hungary_Szolad_540_640_AD_540_640_AD_ 1.75171345 Polish_Kuyavia 2.86347691 Polish 3.05216317 Polish_Kujawy 3.74654508 Polish_Mazovia 3.98610085 Polish_Mazovia

Global25

Code:

Target: Croatian Distance: 0.0049% / 0.00492042 | R2P 70.4 Polish 29.6 Italian_Umbria Target: Serbian Distance: 0.0132% / 0.01321084 | R2P 68.5 Ukrainian_Lviv 31.5 Greek_Kos Target: Serbian Distance: 0.0080% / 0.00799395 | R3P 42.5 Lithuanian_RA 32.6 Italian_Lombardy 24.9 Greek_Kos

Eurogenes K13

Code:

Target: Croat Distance: 0.4453% / 0.44529358 | R3P 40.2 Polish_Mazovia 33.5 Italian_Marche 26.3 Polish_Lesser_Poland Target: Croat_East Distance: 0.8081% / 0.80807037 | R3P 41.8 Polish_Lesser_Poland 32.1 Polish_Southeast 26.1 Greek_Cyclades Target: Croat_North Distance: 0.3585% / 0.35851164 | R3P 60.9 Polish_Mazovia 20.5 Italian_Marche 18.6 French_Alsace Target: Croat_South Distance: 0.5159% / 0.51585104 | R3P 56.8 Polish_Mazovia 24.0 Italian_Veneto 19.2 Greek_Crete Target: Croat_West Distance: 0.5427% / 0.54269622 | R3P 53.8 Polish_Staropolska 37.3 Italian_Trentino 8.9 Greek_Trabzon Target: Serb Distance: 0.7919% / 0.79194004 | R3P 62.5 South_Polish 29.3 Greek_Crete 8.2 Italian_Sardinia Target: Serb_Bosnia Distance: 0.9707% / 0.97069809 | R3P 66.4 Polish_Silesia 27.7 Greek_Crete 5.9 Italian_Sardinia Target: Serb_Croatia Distance: 0.7934% / 0.79338749 | R3P 50.5 Belarusian_Minsk 32.6 Italian_Lombardy 16.9 Greek_Cappadocian Target: Serb_Herzegovina Distance: 0.6890% / 0.68900115 | R3P 57.2 Polish_Lesser_Poland 34.5 Greek_Crete 8.3 Italian_Sardinia Target: Serb_Serbia_Central Distance: 0.8899% / 0.88993271 | R3P 43.5 Belarusian_Minsk 28.8 Greek_Crete 27.7 Italian_Trentino Target: Serb_Serbia_South Distance: 0.6107% / 0.61066313 | R3P 47.3 Belarusian_Minsk 31.3 Greek_Chios 21.4 Italian_Lombardy Target: Serb_Serbia_Vojvodina Distance: 0.8595% / 0.85949676 | R3P 60.7 South_Polish 30.6 Greek_Crete 8.7 Italian_Sardinia Target: Serb_Serbia_West Distance: 0.8380% / 0.83800140 | R3P 65.3 South_Polish 24.4 Greek_Chios 10.3 Italian_Sardinia Target: Serb_Southern_Montenegro Distance: 0.8541% / 0.85412427 | R3P 49.3 Polish_Silesia 46.2 Italian_Apulia 4.5 Italian_Sardinia

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