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What is the chance that the Beeskow sample happens to be the most Slavic-shifted person in the area?Quote:
Originally Posted by vbnetkhio
It is a randomly found sample, so by random probability she is most likely around the middle of distribution in her region.
There is 68.26% chance that she is average for her region (either slightly more or slightly less eastern):
https://i.imgur.com/Kgc8HPe.png
Yes, maybe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
But before stating that this is the case one should check it or at least make visible that one is just stating an educated guess.
And the more you are emphasising with your Carloforte example the possibility of a just personal variation, the less you can conclude out of a single sample like the Beeskow woman. Let alone that the woman with known only ethnic German ancestry the last 200 years far back will fully descend from Sorbs. This is not impossible, but it violates every scientific approach to completely remove this question from discussion by labeling her a Sorb by own judgement (just beacuse the genetic result seems "perfect"). This is even more weird when you seemingly know that actual Sorbs score more "western"!
So ignoring actual Sorbs, because they score "too western" for your taste and instead declare an ethnic German with a "perfect" fitting result the only Sorb reference is a completely unacceptable acting. I can still not believe that this is not selfexplanatory. What's next, taking a Serb and label him Sorb if he delivers a perfect result for how White Serbs = Old Sorbs are assumed to have scored?
But there is 95% chance that a random sample is within 2 Standard Deviations from the mean, and 68% chance that within 1 SD.Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
So the chance that this particular sample is very different than the average memeber of the local population, is statistically low.
These other samples are Upper Sorbs, all from Kamenz, also a very specific regional group:Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamenz
First of all Lower Sorbs are not Upper Sorbs, secondly Upper Sorbs from Kamenz are not all Upper Sorbs.
This K13 "Sorb" average should actually be renamed "Upper_Sorb_Kamenz" to be accurate.
I agree to that as a general approach.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
But as she scores already abt. the maximum "Slavic-like" genetics among Slavs she will likely not be inmidst of the population spread. Just as a thought for estimation. Till we have have more data, it remains an open question.
She does not score maximum among Slavs, she plots roughly in the middle of the Polish cluster in G25 North Europe PCA.Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
Upper Sorbs from Kamenz (I wonder how many of them actually can speak Sorbian - Kamenz is on the edge of Sorbian language area, right?):
New Sorb_Kamenz (or it can also be called Upper_Sorb_Kamenz) average:Code:Sorb_Kamenz1,34.50,37.83,10.59,5.76,7.71,0.76,0,0,0,1.84,0.71,0,0.30
Sorb_Kamenz2,32.96,42.32,6.81,6.32,10.17,0,0.89,0,0.20,0.10,0.10,0.14,0
Sorb_Kamenz3,27.46,44.32,10.26,7.99,7.29,0,0,1.90,0,0.78,0,0,0
Sorb_Kamenz4,37.93,38.42,8.88,4.70,7.70,0,1.66,0,0.70,0,0,0,0
Sorb_Kamenz5,36.81,38.05,12.64,4.25,4.79,0.11,1.33,2.02,0,0,0,0,0
Sorb_Kamenz6,36.41,40.67,9.43,2.85,5.49,1.35,1.53,0,0.59,1.26,0.08,0.35,0
Sorb_Kamenz7,31.72,45.36,8.38,4.21,5.41,0.73,3.44,0,0,0.52,0,0.23,0
Sorb_Kamenz8,34.78,37.56,11.09,2.30,7.51,2.69,2.16,0,0.68,0.80,0,0,0.43
Sorb_Kamenz9,32.57,44.09,12.97,5.29,3.24,0,0.49,0,0.42,0.47,0,0.28,0.18
The current "Sorb" average is a bit different because it includes 9 Kamenz samples + 1 Beeskow sample.Code:Sorb_Kamenz,33.90,40.96,10.12,4.85,6.59,0.63,1.28,0.44,0.29,0.64,0.10,0.11,0.10
For Thuringia NA and Baltic ranges looks same, 10 each (33-44 NA, 27-37 Baltic)Quote:
Originally Posted by vbnetkhio
not sure for Saxony, I have samples by locality names so not sure which are all Saxony. Rothaer could answer
Rothaer,
How many people speak Sorbian in Kamenz and surroundings?
It seems that it might be a Germanized area just like Beeskow.
Beeskow sample is German, your hundred times repeated manipulation won't become truth. I want this post of yours to stand so other people will know you are using fake samples which don't even belong that ethnic group.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
Shameful liar.
I emailed the guy and he responded that the sample is "Sorb, but from area where Sorbian culture was suppressed".Quote:
Originally Posted by Stearsolina
No, he didn't, he said only after you convinced him his mother is a Sorb. They had zero knowledge about Sorbs or oppressed Sorbian culture before you contacted them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
I wasn't convincing him to do or say anything, I just waited for his response. Go kiss your beloved Adolf Hitler's ass, Ustasholina.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stearsolina
Okay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
You are just madly jealous ethnic German is more genetically Slavic than you, so you try to make them present day Sorbs to more easily deal with your lack of Slavic DNA for a full ethnic Pole. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
My favorite Germans are the least Slav-blooded actually. :cool: That's why I enjoy Volga German results for example. Politically Eastern Germans are much better though.
Oh my fucking gosh, that's a hell of a lot of variation for such a tiny place! :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
double.
Yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
I fully agree with that more thorough labeling of the academic Sorbs from Kamenz. Then we don't state anything that we don't know. Well, there are Sorbs in Kamenz area and it's a fringe area, but I'm not sure how this can bother you while it doesn't bother you that the Beeskow woman is not just an ethnic German but even outside the today Sorb area, see pic:Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
https://i.imgur.com/4JvABvJ.jpg
Maybe the Kamenz Sorbs are not representative for whatever Sorbs. I don't know. But if all people involved, Germans as well as Sorbs, do regard these people ethnic Sorbs, don't you find it alienating if there is coming a Pole from Wielkopolska and saying we can not use these individuals as references for Sorbs, because their genetic results seem "too western" for my imagination?
However, there will gladly be added:
Sorb_Saxony_Kamenz(9),33.90,40.96,10.12,4.85,6.59, 0.63,1.28,0.44,0.29,0.64,0.10,0.11,0.10
Who ist interested can elaborate where Kamenz is and that it's Upper Sorb, but as you see on the map
https://i.imgur.com/XcEah13.jpg
there are also intermediate dialects, so it looks somewhat like a dialect continuum for me. So at the moment I'd not make a big deal of Upper or Lower Sorb (how to deal with these in between?), but if there will be genetic differences visible among Sorbs, it can be refined at any time.
He may struggle for whatever, but he shall just let it be to edit reference's lables like a Harry Potter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stearsolina
It is interesting that Beeskow sample has large distance of huge 23.579 from general German average.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stearsolina
Everyone has right to identify as whatever he wants, but Beeskow sample is not autosomal ethnic German by any scientific logic.
Nobody disputes it is genetically Sorbian like, it's out of range for East Germans living nearby as well. But likely other Germans in her micro region plot like that, so such samples is useful for modeling of some Germans.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dušan
It is surpisingly that one part of one same nation didnt mix with their countrymen from surrounding areas during centuries, and preserve such drastically different autosomal genetic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stearsolina
Such drastically different autosomal genetic could be preserved between two ethnicities living next to each other, but hard among one same ethnicity.
I'm not a fan myself of making separate categories for outliers. Beeskow is an ordinary very small town in Brandenburg, why should it have a special status a town of 8000 inhabitants.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dušan
Thuringia Central: NA: 35-43, Baltic: 27-34Quote:
Originally Posted by vbnetkhio
Thuringia East: NA: 34-45, Baltic: 28-37
Saxony: NA 34-40, Baltic: 28-31
This is why there is a notable indication for that local Germans score like that. (The whole population there is uniformely protestant.) Tomenable correctly showed that statistical likelyhood. But we don't yet know and we also don't know the geographic extent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dušan
Neither me. But this individual is deeply rooted in the surrounding villages of Beeskow city. This is why there is a notable indication for that also other local Germans score like that. Tomenable correctly showed that statistical likelyhood. We don't yet know this and also not the possible geographic extent of this. There are Sorbs nearby and we know that they score more Slavic-like too. In this context it would feel wrong to neglect this find. After Sorbs are a small number there could today even be more Germans than Sorbs scoring like that. Germans are sparsely tested, so we have to pay attention to those who are.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunai
My point was that we don't even know if they are Sorbs or Germans according to your definition. In academic datasets samples are often labelled based on self-identification. This is what for example Mait Metspalu of the Estonian Biocentre does.Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
So maybe among these Kamenz Sorbs there are people who said "I'm a Sorb from village XYZ located just west of Kamenz, but Sorbian culture in my village and surrounding villages was suppressed 200 years ago". Just like the Beeskow sample.
Kamenz samples might be Germans according to your criteria. We just don't know.
They got published as Sorbs, but could be German-speaking families for centuries.
Also an ethnic German spouse of a Sorb can be counted as a Sorb in many cases.
This sample represents not Beeskow alone, but entire region around it, a historic region which shares common demographic history. The region is known in German as Kurmärkisch-Wendischer Distrikt and has a territory of 2174 square kilometers, so it is about as big as Memelland (2828 square kilometers).Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunai
This Wendischer Distrikt was part of the Bohemian Crown (Lower Lusatia) until the 16th century - then it became part of Brandenburg.
This area has unique history because no other part of Brandenburg was ruled by Czechs until as late as the 1500s.
Maybe thanks to being ruled by fellow Slavs, Sorbs survived so long in this area, and without German admixture.
Imagine you are Lucas looking for latest averages among this mess.
German ethnicity is not defined by genetics, so there is nothing like an "autosomal ethnic German". There are respective overlaps with neighboring populations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dušan
All this doesn't mean that genetics are irrelevant. The gentic spread will show the genetic borders of Germans. And this limits will be found out by testing ethnic Germans. But you can not go the other way around and deny the undisputed ethnicity of Germans inmidst of German people area that have been regarded Germans by all people involved for at least 200 years because of a particular genetic result. It's still not an American company (like AncestryDNA, 23andMe, FTDNA) that defines what is genetically within the frame of Germans. The genetic conditions of the ethnic German people do.
since German-Austrian averages we published few days ago haven't been yet added to Vahaduo, now posting newer updated version (we got more kits in these last few days), plus Sorbs found by Peterska:
so please add these, not older ones.Code:Austrian,36.84,27.27,15.90,7.36,9.10,1.32,0.60,0.23,0.48,0.27,0.41,0.06,0.10
Austrian_Burgenland,38.13,26.01,13.17,6.50,12.79,0.87,0.36,0.27,0.62,0.24,0.71,0.00,0.32
Austrian_Carinthia,32.36,33.44,14.41,6.52,10.49,1.02,0.34,0.00,0.64,0.27,0.33,0.04,0.07
Austrian_Lower_Austria,37.42,24.75,17.87,8.14,7.73,1.585,0.97,0.24,0.425,0.225,0.64,0,0
Austrian_Salzburg-Upper_Austria,38.78,27.33,14.66,6.69,9.37,1.49,0.58,0.18,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.03,0.00
Austrian_Styria,34.20,31.69,15.07,7.48,8.45,0.79,0.31,0.33,0.77,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.36
Austrian_Tyrol,36.88,20.87,18.12,8.21,11.75,1.88,0.20,0.34,0.72,0.52,0.33,0.00,0.07
German,42.05,27.91,13.69,6.10,6.31,1.23,0.86,0.16,0.32,0.43,0.32,0.35,0.29
German_Baden-Württemberg,40.95,22.52,15.86,6.68,10.49,1.08,0.82,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.08,0.09
German_Bavaria_Lower/Middle_Franconia,41.30,24.80,15.01,7.01,8.85,0.68,0.72,0.12,0.22,0.65,0.10,0.42,0.08
German_Bavaria_Oberpfalz,39.57,26.56,14.43,6.52,9.59,0.26,1.44,0.05,0.27,0.75,0.44,0.09,0.04
German_Bavaria_Proper,40.02,23.94,15.40,7.03,10.46,1.26,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.58,0.36,0.04,0.00
German_Bavarian_Swabia,34.71,26.3,19.15,7.19,11.37,0,0,0,0,0.37,0.4,0,0.46
German_Brandenburg_Northwest,42.26,31.81,11.86,6.84,3.28,0.18,1.52,0.16,0.05,0.82,0.68,0.45,0.11
German_Brandenburg_Outlier(Beeskow),26.92,44.46,14.49,5.95,6.25,0,0,0.72,0,0.17,0.74,0,0.3
German_County_Glatz,35.77,31.04,14.63,8.13,7.64,0.3,0,1.02,0,0.72,0,0.72,0
German_East_Prussia_Central,46.40,36.05,9.33,1.39,2.77,2.18,0,0.12,0.19,0.31,0.99,0.18,0.09
German_East_Prussia_Masuria,33.26,44.37,9.00,4.57,3.12,0.15,2.31,0.47,0.75,0.74,0.61,0.00,0.68
German_East_Prussia_Memelland,29.91,52.02,10.63,3.88,0,0,1.83,0,0.81,0.58,0,0,0.34
German_Farther_Pomerania,39.63,38.09,9.56,4.92,3.95,1.05,1.04,0.29,0.03,0.27,0.29,0.63,0.25
German_Frisian,55.45,25.92,9.33,2.93,1.79,1.02,2.22,0,0.33,0,1,0,0
German_Hamburg,50.83,28.92,8.41,3.93,4.04,1.33,1.32,0,0.62,0.15,0,0.45,0
German_Hither_Pomerania,43.825,32.395,11.415,5.735,3.815,0.35,0.545,0.72,0.44,0.475,0.05,0.24,0
German_Lower_Saxony_North,49.55,27.97,10.58,6.26,2.15,0.25,1.64,0.39,0.16,0.19,0.54,0.32,0.00
German_Lower_Saxony_South,48.78,25.87,11.39,6.78,3.82,0.44,1.48,0.00,0.51,0.31,0.04,0.12,0.45
German_Lower_Silesia,34.34,36.33,12.87,6.99,6.65,0,0.6,0,0.31,0.85,0.34,0.47,0.23
German_Mecklenburg_Center/East,42.39,32.89,11.32,5.1,5.27,0.54,0.89,0,0,1.13,0,0,0.47
German_Mecklenburg_West,45.13,33.44,9.22,6.21,3.28,0.16,0.49,0.62,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.43,0.00
German_North_Bohemia,38.27,31.61,13.93,5.63,7.42,0.38,0.90,0.53,0.10,0.41,0.50,0.00,0.31
German_North_Hesse,43.69,22.35,14.83,4.48,10.49,1.78,0,0.69,0,0.86,0.22,0,0.6
German_North_Moravia,40.94,27.21,13.27,7.36,7.57,1.49,1.04,0,0,0.48,0.19,0.46,0
German_North_Rhine,43.36,21.95,15.88,7.62,8.34,0.62,0.96,0.13,0.23,0.17,0.38,0.23,0.13
German_Saarland,43.50,20.17,18.47,5.85,9.04,1.30,1.03,0.00,0.20,0.12,0.04,0.17,0.09
German_Saxony,38.88,30.83,13.16,6.57,7.10,1.36,0.27,0.02,0.31,0.40,0.29,0.61,0.21
German_Saxony-Anhalt_South,41.19,31.63,11.12,5.16,7.34,1.02,0.62,0.25,0.28,0.56,0.50,0.20,0.12
German_Schleswig-Holstein,50.35,26.87,11.48,4.44,3.57,0.78,0.52,0.27,0.18,0.83,0.39,0.09,0.24
German_South_Hesse,41.78,21.94,17.52,5.66,8.80,1.50,0.66,0.33,0.41,0.56,0.46,0.11,0.27
German_Rhineland-Palatinate,42.44,20.12,17.36,5.05,11.26,1.57,0.27,0.15,0.65,0.45,0.39,0.11,0.20
German_Rhineland-Palatinate_East_of_Rhine,46.37,21.92,13.75,6.97,7.95,2.21,0.46,0.00,0.00,0.03,0.00,0.20,0.15
German_Thuringia_Central,38.63,30.19,13.73,4.49,9.55,0.38,1.70,0.00,0.25,0.47,0.75,0.00,0.00
German_Thuringia_East,37.78,32.62,11.52,6.80,7.19,1.13,0.84,0.24,0.64,0.67,0.47,0.00,0.07
German_West_Bohemia,38.06,27.32,15.52,7.55,9.66,0,0.17,0,0.4,0.58,0.74,0,0
German_West_Prussia,36.87,38.43,11.15,5.97,4.70,0.16,0.84,0.00,0.72,0.40,0.33,0.13,0.29
German_Westphalia,48.90,25.72,11.45,6.87,3.44,0.81,1.08,0.20,0.26,0.57,0.25,0.06,0.39
Upper_Silesia,33.01,43.21,9.27,6.4,5.21,0.26,0.67,0,1.04,0.31,0.58,0,0.06
Sorb_Saxony_Kamenz,33.90,40.96,10.12,4.85,6.59,0.63,1.28,0.44,0.29,0.64,0.10,0.11,0.10
This is extremely far fetched. As you can see on the map in Kamenz there are people that are identified by themselves and by others (including me, ofc) as Sorbs because of their culture, their language and their consciousness ever since. There is no reasonable cause to assume that in that academic paper stating Sorbs anyone else then such individuals from that group were tested and published as Sorbs. If you find some indications in that paper that this is not the case, it could be reviewed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
That could happen when whatever ethnic individual around the world is tested. Why do you make a huge issue out of that when it is about Sorbs and not Serbs, Croats, Wielkopolska Poles and Belgorod Ukrainians? Your whole approach has double standards. It's very transparent that you just try to justify your idiosyncratic labeling of the Beeskow woman and now try to question (if not delegitimate) the actual tested Sorbs with all that comes in your mind. This is childish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomenable
Yeah it seems that (going north-south) from Frankfurt/Oder to Görlitz (or even to Zittau) there are predominantly Slavs living on both sides of the border!Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
In genetic terms.
Roughly this area (which has over 1 million inhabitants - 1,221,260 according to German Wikipedia):
https://i.imgur.com/y0PW9j3.png
As far as I know, he has at least new Bosniak, Croatian and German-Austrian. The interesting Sorbian discussion should be moved or copied to a related thread. So it will be easier to keep track and keep records there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ion Basescul
According to your logic, if ethnicity is only a language category, not genetic, then all these recently settled Eastern Europeans and non-Europeans in Germany, ie their descendants, although if they completely keep to themselves, will be considered ethnic Germans in 200 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
Speaking German and live in Germany is enough.
First, you will have seen that I expressly wrote that language is not all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dušan
Second, you will indeed for every ethnicity have to give an approximate year also. What was German in 1000 AD is different to what was German in 1500 AD and this is different to what is German in 1950 AD. Let's express it with an approximate year in brackets. There will also be a huge difference between Slavic (600) and Slavic (1950), especially in Southeast Europe. Or between Hungarian (950) and Hungarian (1950).
Third, everyone will indentify with his own people (ethnicity). You likey are a Serb (1950) and I'm a German (1950) (Which is basically the same as a Serb (2022) and an ethnic German (2022).) In particular I'm not a German (1000). I can feel sad for Germans (1000), but that's not me and not my people that I do refer to and that I want to continue existing (Germans (1950)).
To be observant to differences like this does in no way weaken the own position. You and me will not live notably longer than 100 years. We will die anyway. But which mental healthy living being would because of that conclude that it's not worth to do all what's possible to defend one's own life and instead agree to being killed by someone coming around the corner?
Nobody, ofc. And in the same manner we all in the world will try to get our respective people to live and not to die. And some manage for a very long period of time, for thousands of years, and there is also no necessity to the life of a certain people to end at all. Icelanders (1000) are likey the same as Icelanders (1950), Japanese (-1000) are likely the same as Japanese (1950) and Levantines (-3000) are abt. the same as Levantines (1950) etc.
Speaking German and live in Germany is not enogh for being a German (1950).
If there would be a notable change - this is not yet clear at all - till the year of 2200, then would Germans (1950) not be the same as Germans (2200). Then would Germans (1950) have been ethnocided. Germans (2200), if they would be something else (again, this is not at all said and maybe not even likely), the Germans (2200) would be an ultimate horror. They must be prevented with all power of self-preservation that we do have, so my people (Germans (1950 = 1900 = 1800...) must not die but can go on living.
In this context one must make the effort to be clear with terms. A lot of potential confusions will then disslove. Also considerations will then be clearer.
Here are my two cents. Leaving obvious non-whites aside (and that includes Turkey for the most part), I'd say the Germans of 2050 will be even more Eastern (even Southeastern perhaps) than a hundred years before. Europeans in Germany usually do not cause problems and adopt the German language in the second generation. Their grandkids will likely identify as German. 2.5 million Aussiedler won't disappear without a trace, that is just one example. Add to that the "Ostblock", Yugoslavian, ex-USSR, Greek, Italian folks.Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
Japanese -1000 did not even exist because at that time Japan was inhabited by hunter-gatherers (Jomon/Ainu folks).Quote:
Originally Posted by rothaer
Only the first groups of farmers landed on northern Kyushu (coming from Korea) perhaps around that time, or later.