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Now for real...Rohirrim defintiely represent Indo-European tribes. In times those books were written there was a Nordicist romantization of Scythians, Sarmatians and other legendary, in their minds, blond steppe horsemen.
Hobbits are insular Celts, obviously. Simple minded yet lovely people deeply ingrained with nature, song, and love for their lust green homeland.
Gondor could be either eastern Roman Empire/Byzantinum or Frankish Empire.
Orcs and their allies represent Ottomans, Mongols, Saracens/Arabs/Moors and all other invaders of Europe.
Dwarfs - more like Alpine Celts/south Germans than like the Jews. Stuck in their mountains, greedy, love to collect wealth but also fierce warriors. Reminds of Swiss/Bavarians/Austrians.
Elves - no idea. They don't really fit any European nation. Nordic countries would be closest though.
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