Falklands II?

[Beorn]

Seeing as this thread descended into madness, I thought it best to start afresh within the correct section and (hopefully) free of references to magical beings and uktra xenophobic nonsense.

Argentina toughens shipping rules in Falklands oil row

Argentina has announced new controls on ships passing through its waters to the Falkland Islands in a growing dispute over British oil drilling plans.
A permit will now be needed by ships using Argentine waters en route to the Falklands, South Georgia or the South Sandwich Islands - all UK controlled.
Argentina has protested to the UK about oil exploration due to begin next week.
The UK Foreign Office said the Falkland Islands' waters were controlled by its authorities and would not be affected.

It seems odd the Argentinians are taking this all so badly. A good head on the shoulders would register that there is surplus economic benefits to be had with British oil excavations. Argentina will never have the control of the islands, as they simply don't belong to them, but they can certainly stake a claim to being first refusal for the creation of jobs entwined with any oil rigging and exploitation.

This isn't Falklands II

It was Karl Marx who said "history repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" – and in the case of the abruptly reigniting dispute over the Falkland Islands, aka Las Malvinas, there is reason to hope he was right. Argentina's latest protests, sparked by the prospect of an oil bonanza around the islands, could easily be dismissed as hot air. But that was the mistake Britain made last time, and almost 1,000 people paid with their lives.
The parallels with the runup to the 1982 war, echoing eerily down the years, are uncanny, although susceptible to exaggeration. The Iron Lady star of today's supposed sequel is not Britain's Margaret Thatcher. It is Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina's president and wife of her immediate presidential predecessor, Néstor Kirchner. She once styled herself "Evita with a clenched fist". She has shown she's not scared of a fight.
Like Thatcher, Kirchner has spent much of her time in office battling trade unions while trying to resuscitate an indebted, moribund economy. Regional analysts say the government, dependent on continuing international support since the country's $100bn debt default in 2001, is wary of unleashing a patriotic furore. But next year is presidential election year in Argentina.

Absolute madness when one considers the figures.

"Argentina's army and navy currently comprise 72,000 personnel. Its navy boasts three submarines, five destroyers and nine frigates (mostly secondhand), and a few patrol boats. The warships are armed with the feared Exocet missiles that inflicted so much damage in 1982. Argentina also has about 140 combat-capable aircraft, including Mirage fighters."

and yet on the Falklands themselves, the British have:

"...[protection] by a Royal Navy destroyer, Typhoon jet fighters and about 1,300 military personnel."

And on top of that several military reserves in various positions in close proximity which can be deployed in under a short period to hold off any attempt made by an average, ill experienced Argentinian army.

[poiuytrewq0987]

Argentina is a country of 40 million, all the government need to do is conscript 1 million citizens and send them over to the Falklands.

[Sol Invictus]

It won't happen. I don't think the British people will support an imperialist war with a western nation.

[The Ripper]

It won't happen. I don't think the British people will support an imperialist war with a western nation.

1) Is their support needed?

2) I wouldn't put it past them.

[hereward]

Dont see it happening, the only way the Argentines can get hold of the Falklands is via a weak British Government. As I mentioned before, the military view on the Falklands has changed, the air defense arrangements etc are totally different. I hear talk saying we are overstretched with regards to feet on the ground, but thats not the point, I cant see the Argentines breaching the defences. The Argies should play the long game, the likelyhood is that they will recieve it without a shot fired.

[Beorn]

Argentina is a country of 40 million, all the government need to do is conscript 1 million citizens and send them over to the Falklands.

Change 'Argentina' for 'Great Britian' and '40 million' for '70 million' and suddenly your post looks pointless.

It won't happen. I don't think the British people will support an imperialist war with a western nation.

An invasion by Argentina would be the vote winning platform with which to take your party into office, or to ensure it sustains its continuation in office. The British public love nothing more than to hate another nation at a time of war. It may have had one million people march against it, but the Iraq war was not British territory with British citizens. The Falklands is, and it will be backed if invaded.

[hereward]

Do not forget that the 1 million who marched against the war are not a representation of Home. Rent a mob, the international possee of 'students' , socialists and all forms of scum were present. If I went to a similar demo in Paris, I would expect a sizable number would not hail from France.

[Óttar]

Maybe the US should invoke the Monroe Doctrine, but the Brits are our allies so we can modify it to mean Argentina cannot create waves in our hemisphere. The Americas for Americans indeed.

"Let every power know that we shall join with them to oppose aggression and subversion anywhere in the Americas. And let every other power know, that this hemisphere intends to remain the master of its own house."

-JFK

[RoyBatty]

Dont see it happening, the only way the Argentines can get hold of the Falklands is via a weak British Government. As I mentioned before, the military view on the Falklands has changed, the air defense arrangements etc are totally different. I hear talk saying we are overstretched with regards to feet on the ground, but thats not the point, I cant see the Argentines breaching the defences.

Agree. The Argies are hardly in financial or military shape for such a caper. If anything they look even worse off than when they last tried in the 1980's. I had a look at their Air Force equipment. It doesn't look to be up to scratch if they were serious about sinking ships (which they'd need to be) and doing a few bombing runs.

The Argies should play the long game, the likelyhood is that they will recieve it without a shot fired.

They'd never get it this way either. Not with all that oil there. Another major reason they won't get Malvinas without a fight is because the islands give Britain a claim on Antarctica for the day when the big scramble kicks off to mine and drill it to bits.

The only way they're going to get it is to kick the "Falklands Company" (or whoever runs the place) and the British military out and without a decent gameplan and a well equipped airforce they have little hope of doing so imo.

[Beorn]

Falklands oil row dialogue sought by Argentina

Argentina has said it wants dialogue with the UK in the row over planned British oil drilling around the Falkland Islands.Deputy Foreign Minister Victorio Taccetti added that Argentina could do little beyond the new controls it had imposed on shipping to the islands.
The UK has said the oil exploration conforms to international law.
An oil rig from the UK has arrived in the Falklands' waters, with drilling due to begin on Sunday.
Earlier this week, Argentina announced that special permits would be required by all ships heading from its ports or through its waters to the Falklands.