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Thread: Tens of thousands in Yemen Shiite protest

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    The protesters are taking it one step further by deciding to camp in front of Ministries, following the pattern set by the protesters in Tahrir Square, and more recently those of Maidan.

    Yemen's Shiite-Rebel Group Escalate Standoff
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ndoff-25084163
    Spoiler!

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    It seems the Houthis are on the verge of succeeding. The government in Sanaa offered yesterday to surrender, just like the protesters said it would.
    Remains to be seen what happens next.

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    Yemen government offers to resign to end Houthi protests - source

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0GN06M20140823

    Images of the Protests
    Spoiler!


    (Reuters) - Yemen's government offered on Saturday to resign within a month and to review an unpopular decision to cut fuel subsidies, in an attempt to end protests by the Shi'ite Houthi movement, a government source told Reuters.

    Tens of thousands of Yemenis massed in the capital Sanaa on Friday in a protest called by the Houthis to demand the government's resignation and a reversal of the subsidy cuts.

    The rally came at the end of a week of demonstrations that have piled pressure on President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who has struggled to keep order in the U.S.-allied country which borders major oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

    The source, who is from Yemen's presidential committee, said officials had handed to the Houthis a draft proposal that includes an offer to form a new government within a month and to set up an economic committee to review the fuel subsidy issue.

    "This proposal will take effect in exchange for the Houthis removing their camps from Sanaa, they can either respond or leave the capital if negotiations fail," said the source.

    There was no immediate response to the offer from the Houthis, who have been fighting for years for more power for their Zaydi Shi'ite Muslim sect in north Yemen.

    However another source from the presidential committee told Reuters that they had received a positive response from the Houthis and would hold a final meeting with them later on Saturday.

    "We will meet with them again tonight and the signing of agreement will be tomorrow morning," said the source.

    Public anger over the subsidy cuts has helped bring people onto the streets, demanding participation in a future government as the majority Sunni country moves towards a federal system that devolves more power to regions.

    On Friday, the movement set up tents near the interior, telecommunications and electricity ministries in a side street that leads to Sanaa's airport, saying they would stay until their demands were met.

    Yemenis are unhappy about the government's decision in late July to cut energy subsidies to reduce its budget deficit, a move which led to a rise in fuel prices.

    The government spent about $3 billion on subsidies last year, nearly a third of state revenues.

    A previous attempt to cut subsidies, in 2005, led to unrest that left about 20 people dead and more than 200 wounded. The reform was cancelled.

    (Reporting by Mohamed Ghobari; Writing by Amena Bakr; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

    ------------

    It's quite likely that the federalization of Yemen will be the next objective, transforming the majority of provinces north of Sanaa (Amran, Saada and Al Jawf, just to name a few) into an unofficial stronghold for the Houthis, somewhat similar to the situation of south Lebanon under Hezbollah.

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    The situation is deteriorating rapidly in Yemen, seeing as the talks have failed and the government has refused to step down.

    The Houthis have vowed to escalate their protests, while the Yemeni president has openly accused Iran of destabilizing the country. The GCC's joint leadership has scheduled a meeting for next Saturday to assess the situation in Sanaa.

    Yemen Shiite rebels rally in Sanaa and vow 'escalation'
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/yemen-shii...3.html#7WnNI7q

    Spoiler!


    Yemen's President Blames Iran for Inciting Conflict
    http://www.voanews.com/content/yemen...n/2431178.html

    Spoiler!


    ---------

    GCC Foreign Ministers to discuss developments in Yemen Saturday
    http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789...D=3&SubID=8152

    Spoiler!

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    In what appears to be a tactical decision to seize the opportunity from the chaos and political turmoil in Sanaa, AQAP has seized the chance to attack more heavily the Yemeni military in the South.

    Several Yemeni soldiers killed in al Qaeda attacks in south Yemen
    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story...in-south-yemen

    Spoiler!

    I'm not sure what Hadi's options are now that the Houthis are entirely galvanized and almost entrenched around Sanaa, that AQAP will progressively realise they have a perfect chance to increase their power in South Yemen, all while remembering that the armed militias of the Islah party (Hadi's ally and an organization affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood) had been routed from their stronghold in Amran a couple of months ago.

    The two questions to consider now are in my opinion:
    1) How will the Yemeni military respond to the rising chaos? I've already seen some soldiers abandoning their positions and joining the Houthi protests (probably Zaydi men).
    2) What will the West and the GCC come up with now that the Yemeni situation is on the verge of getting completely out of hand.

    The deal that the IMF sprung will clearly not be honoured, and NATO simply cannot afford to completely lose Yemen for it'd mean a severe blow to their power projection in the Red Sea, and could even compromise Operation Atalanta around the shores of the Horn of Africa.

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    Being pushed against the cords, Hadi has gone one step further in trying to appease the Houthis and has dismissed the whole Yemeni government (Yemen has both a Primer Minister and a President like France), and offered to hand over several ministries and reinstate 30% of the fuel subsidies, while attempting to keep the most important ones for himself.

    Being consistent with his gamble to go all in, al-Houthi has however rejected the move and seemingly calls for the unconditional end of Hadi's rule and possibly the full return of the government subsidies.

    The Western media has started to pick up on the current method being used in Sanaa, and just like I stated to you in the beginning of this page (check first post of page 3), it would appear a very similar scenario to the Kiev Euromaidan rebellion is on the verge of taking places.

    Intelligence leaks suggest that Hadi's decision to dismiss the whole Yemeni government followed an interception that suggested the Houthi militias were getting ready to storm the Parliament and the government offices. On the meantime, they still keep trying to cut the fuel supplies to Sanaa coming from Aden and the southern regions, fighting pro-government paramilitaries to do so.

    I've not picked up any particular new move coming from AQAP since they gunned down the Yemeni soldiers 48 hour ago, but this sign of terrible weakness from Ha is bound to lure them into more daring operations.

    A few sources to back up this brief update:

    ------

    Yemeni President Dismisses Cabinet to Ease Tension
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ebels-25205213

    Spoiler!


    Official: Yemen Protesters Plan Ukrainian-Style Revolution
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5752302.html

    Spoiler!


    Yemen's Houthis reject government move to quell protests
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...0R32K120140902
    Spoiler!

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    Topic was moved to Geopolitics given that I intend to keep working and adding information to this for a while.
    Special thanks to Loki for helping out with that.

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    Imbeciles fighting over religion, no matter if it's Christianity, Islam, Shintoism or whatever, it's just non-sense, one big crap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rashulla View Post
    Imbeciles fighting over religion, no matter if it's Christianity, Islam, Shintoism or whatever, it's just non-sense, one big crap.
    Religion only plays a part of the equation in the conflict in Yemen. True, the Houthis have positioned themselves as the speakers of the Zaydi minority (30%+ of the population), which is a majority in North Yemen, but if you look at the conflict in detail, it's more a political struggle with ethnoreligious overtones.

    Hadi, just like Saleh before him, has been supported by the Western powers, as well as Saudi Arabia (the majority of his international official trips have been to Jeddah), and even Qatar, since the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate Islah party is one of his main allies.

    While the government is broadly Sunni, that hasn't helped them to stall the advance from AQAP, and the Houthis are not asking for a conversion of Yemen into a Zaydi confessional State, as much as they're trying to federalize the country and solidify their autonomy in the North, with a secondary ideal objective of becoming the most cohesive political and military force in the country, similar to Hezbollah's success in Lebanon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ars Moriendi View Post
    Religion only plays a part of the equation in the conflict in Yemen. True, the Houthis have positioned themselves as the speakers of the Zaydi minority (30%+ of the population), which is a majority in North Yemen, but if you look at the conflict in detail, it's more a political struggle with ethnoreligious overtones.

    Hadi, just like Saleh before him, has been supported by the Western powers, as well as Saudi Arabia (the majority of his international official trips have been to Jeddah), and even Qatar, since the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate Islah party is one of his main allies.

    While the government is broadly Sunni, that hasn't helped me stall the advance from AQAP, and the Houthis are not asking for a conversion of Yemen into a Zaydi confessional State, as much as they're trying to federalize the country and solidify their autonomy in the North, with a secondary ideal objective of becoming the most cohesive political and military force in the country, similar to Hezbollah's success in Lebanon.
    It's just evil Western powers, bitch please, those are uneducated religiously indoctrinated cretins, America and West have full right to use them for their goals. Who could force me to go to die for some fuckin country or religion? America is just excuse for some people being morons. Now you're gonna tell me I'm wrong or what?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rashulla View Post
    It's just evil Western powers, bitch please, those are uneducated religiously indoctrinated cretins, America and West have full right to use them for their goals. Who could force me to go to die for some fuckin country or religion? America is just excuse for some people being morons. Now you're gonna tell me I'm wrong or what?
    I said that the conflict in Yemen is first and foremost, a political struggle between factions with different goals, that use ethnoreligious factors to solidify their camps and make their goals more easy to identify.
    Unlike what you seemed to state at the beginning, religion isn't the core of it. If it was, you'd be seeing an unified Sunni camp trying to convert or cleanse the Zaydis, and you'd see a Zaydi camp trying to occupy Sunni areas and annex them.
    Factors like AQAP, the negotiations between al-Houthi and Hadi, or the agreed withdrawal from Amran are clear examples that political, and military, calculations play a major role in the future of Yemen.

    When I mentioned the West, I said so to clarify that on top of their own interests, each faction also has to consider the objectives of their backers. Hadi owes his position to the US and NATO, Islah depends greatly from Qatari funding, the Yemeni military receives assistance from the Saudis, AQAP has recently declared their allegiance to the Islamic State, and the Houthis are widely rumoured to be recieving some form of Iranian assitance.

    All this intertwined factors make the conflict more complex than a simple jihad vs jihad dynamic, which ignorant Western media seems to portray at some times.
    The Arabian Peninsulae today is not the same as during the Rashidun days.

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