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Eventually he will lose power or simply retire from public life but it wont happen immediately. He's 60 now, if he makes the switch from east to west he'll win the next elections and probably those after that without any kind of problem and by the end of his 6th term he'll be 70+. He didn't assassinate journalists and did not start wars, the west and his people will turn a blind eye to his 20+ years of quasi-dictatorial reign.
Last edited by Zmey Gorynych; 12-22-2014 at 11:42 AM.
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And where is saddam now?
The west can tell Lukashenko everything he wants to heard. The fact is that he is just a tool use against Russia. When the tool will stop to be usefull, West will drop him and put a "democratic" governement who share the western view instead.
Russians have a lot of defects but they never let one of their ally down without try to help. Its not the case of Western. Lukashenko will probably be disapoint.
But it's a good thing for belarussians people.
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You and me both know what Lukashenko policies are about - not long after he came to power he understood two facts:
1. EU wouldn't like his authorian methods and not long after he will ally with them he will be removed.
2. Russia is way too big and powerfull to be an equal ally for Belarus. Alliance with Russia will mean that he either will be degraded to the level of governor of Belarussian province, or even worser - will be removed.
So there was only way for him - to be neutrall, but due to the fact that both EU and Russia has enough power to infuence internal policies of Belarus he has to side with Russia or EU from time to time.
And he does it well! Economical help from both sides helps Belarussian economy a lot.
Last years were the "Russian" period, now propably the "EU" period comes. Nothing new.
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Yes, the great strategist, chess master and tactical genius has had a great 2014. All Russia's strategic foreign policy initiatives have simply failed. There is one partner to lose before loosing Russian "republics". That's Kazakhstan. I would like to hear your educated guesstimate about '15 developments at that front. Will Kazakhstan re-orient itself towards China as Eurasian Union is nothing more than "carcass of co-operation" ?
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