Rank from most to least likely to reunify within 20 years time: Ireland, Cyprus, Korea

[sean]

Well it's interesting with Brexit. Northern Ireland is now going to be different than the rest of the UK so that it doesn't affect the free movement on the border. If Brexit goes bad for the UK watch this space.

It's better than it was 25 years ago, by a long way. The ring of steel, troops on street corners, sullen resentment amongst the population made NI unbearable. It's a totally different place now.

And if NI joins the republic, you can guarantee the same rent-a-gob pundits who whined about Brussels will be crying into their beer about the collapse of the union.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be wanting to be part of the EU. It's also mad that Wales voted with England for Brexit because they are one of the regions that gain most from EU regional funding. Crazy stuff from the UK IMO.

Well, it's not clear that if Scotland or NI left the UK that they would be able to apply for EU membership since they'd have to pass through their vetting process which takes years. And after that they'd have to bend to all the new EU rules that new member states are forced to have, that the UK currently doesn't have, which are things like using the Euro currency. Plus any 1 member state could veto them joining in the final vote and places like Spain have strong political motivation to deny them access. All in all it's not clear that joining the EU but leaving the UK would constitute a net improvement for the lives of the Scottish.

Northern Ireland is a huge financial drain and a pain in the arse politically. Public spending is the highest of all 4 nations while tax returns the lowest. If a united Ireland happened you would need to take on that burden and the EU would also have to fund quite a lot of this despite the loss of the second largest net contributor to the EU. The only reason they're still part of the UK is because they choose to be. They're not hostages. This isn't the EU.

Thirty years ago, Welsh Nationalists (Meibion Glyndŵr) tried to remove the English from Wales. There was a joke based on an advertisement for coal that said "If you want to come home to a real fire buy a house in Wales." Then the nationalists sold out to the EU. Just like the IRA in Ireland. Eastern Europe is probably richer than most parts of Wales nowadays.

Personally I don't want to see a United Ireland. Partially for heritage reasons (I have Protestant distant relatives from Antrim).

[Maintenance]

Korea , cyprus , ireland

[Andromega123]

Cyprus
Ireland
Korea

[Grace O'Malley]

It's better than it was 25 years ago, by a long way. The ring of steel, troops on street corners, sullen resentment amongst the population made NI unbearable. It's a totally different place now.

And if NI joins the republic, you can guarantee the same rent-a-gob pundits who whined about Brussels will be crying into their beer about the collapse of the union.



Well, it's not clear that if Scotland or NI left the UK that they would be able to apply for EU membership since they'd have to pass through their vetting process which takes years. And after that they'd have to bend to all the new EU rules that new member states are forced to have, that the UK currently doesn't have, which are things like using the Euro currency. Plus any 1 member state could veto them joining in the final vote and places like Spain have strong political motivation to deny them access. All in all it's not clear that joining the EU but leaving the UK would constitute a net improvement for the lives of the Scottish.

Northern Ireland is a huge financial drain and a pain in the arse politically. Public spending is the highest of all 4 nations while tax returns the lowest. If a united Ireland happened you would need to take on that burden and the EU would also have to fund quite a lot of this despite the loss of the second largest net contributor to the EU. The only reason they're still part of the UK is because they choose to be. They're not hostages. This isn't the EU.

Thirty years ago, Welsh Nationalists (Meibion Glyndŵr) tried to remove the English from Wales. There was a joke based on an advertisement for coal that said "If you want to come home to a real fire buy a house in Wales." Then the nationalists sold out to the EU. Just like the IRA in Ireland. Eastern Europe is probably richer than most parts of Wales nowadays.

Personally I don't want to see a United Ireland. Partially for heritage reasons (I have Protestant distant relatives from Antrim).

Northern Ireland would just have to rejoin the rest of Ireland to gain full access to the EU and Scotland would gain EU entry fairly quickly because they are presently a member and Spain said they would not vote against Scotland's EU membership.

Northern Ireland will soon have a Catholic majority and it is much more beneficial for both parts of Ireland to have an all Ireland economy hence why most people in Ireland want to have an invisible border. If things don't go well with Brexit watch how people in Northern Ireland will start weighing up how it would be better for them to be in a United Ireland in the EU. There has been a very quick sea change in Northern Ireland with the implications of how Brexit is very bad for Northern Ireland. Also people in Britain that want Brexit don't care whether they have to ditch Northern Ireland to get Brexit.

https://www.irishpost.com/news/unite...-likely-173196

Younger people are much more progressive and whatever happens Unionism is in decline. Demographics will be a factor of course but Brexit is a major reason for a shift in opinion.

[sean]

Northern Ireland will soon have a Catholic majority and it is much more beneficial for both parts of Ireland to have an all Ireland economy hence why most people in Ireland want to have an invisible border. If things don't go well with Brexit watch how people in Northern Ireland will start weighing up how it would be better for them to be in a United Ireland in the EU. There has been a very quick sea change in Northern Ireland with the implications of how Brexit is very bad for Northern Ireland. Also people in Britain that want Brexit don't care whether they have to ditch Northern Ireland to get Brexit.

It depends on how you read Irish psychology. Ireland has never been a united country as such. Even under British rule. The addition of Ulster to the south could see fracture lines developing elsewhere. Opposition to the existence of Ulster being a uniting factor for the south.

The point of Brexit to me, is to get rid out of the outsiders with the aim of making it possible for issues like Ireland to be resolved by British people, among British people with no interference.

For one thing, Stormont hasn't assembled for years. New elections might have to be held, for both Stormont and the central government in Dublin. There is already the Common Travel Area, which guarantees both British and Irish citizens can live and work in each others' countries, regardless of the UK's membership of the EU.

In regards to NI joining the Republic, current state of Ireland is a mess that I wouldn't want to be a part of. Ireland is worse for small and medium businesses, has a worse healthcare system in reality than the UK and worse infrastructure. They sell everything off to foreign companies. Raise taxes and the people see none of it. The main problem is the mainland Irish economy couldn't support the deficit Northern Ireland creates each year. And I just don't see how they can do that now that the EU stopped them being a tax haven for companies like Google and Apple.

Younger people are much more progressive and whatever happens Unionism is in decline. Demographics will be a factor of course but Brexit is a major reason for a shift in opinion.

Most of the value in the UK comes from England, not these other nations so even if they did leave it's most likely that the lives of the English would be the same if not a little better, they basically carry these other countries, it's places like Wales that get disproportionately more money back from the EU than say England or Scotland does, but if the UK leaves their massive contribution of wealth (mostly from England) won't be there and so a place like Wales would not get back what they currently get from the EU.

[Grace O'Malley]

It depends on how you read Irish psychology. Ireland has never been a united country as such. Even under British rule. The addition of Ulster to the south could see fracture lines developing elsewhere. Opposition to the existence of Ulster being a uniting factor for the south.

The point of Brexit to me, is to get rid out of the outsiders with the aim of making it possible for issues like Ireland to be resolved by British people, among British people with no interference.

For one thing, Stormont hasn't assembled for years. New elections might have to be held, for both Stormont and the central government in Dublin. There is already the Common Travel Area, which guarantees both British and Irish citizens can live and work in each others' countries, regardless of the UK's membership of the EU.

In regards to NI joining the Republic, current state of Ireland is a mess that I wouldn't want to be a part of. Ireland is worse for small and medium businesses, has a worse healthcare system in reality than the UK and worse infrastructure. They sell everything off to foreign companies. Raise taxes and the people see none of it. The main problem is the mainland Irish economy couldn't support the deficit Northern Ireland creates each year. And I just don't see how they can do that now that the EU stopped them being a tax haven for companies like Google and Apple.



Most of the value in the UK comes from England, not these other nations so even if they did leave it's most likely that the lives of the English would be the same if not a little better, they basically carry these other countries, it's places like Wales that get disproportionately more money back from the EU than say England or Scotland does, but if the UK leaves their massive contribution of wealth (mostly from England) won't be there and so a place like Wales would not get back what they currently get from the EU.

Lots of countries weren't united in the past including England. Ireland was united under Brian Boru. All populations were tribal in the past. You really can't just resolve the issue of Ireland with "British" people. The Irish have to be included which is why any vote will include the Northern Irish but also the rest of Ireland. The Northern Irish would vote on if they wanted to join the rest of Ireland and simultaneously the people in the rest of Ireland would vote on whether they would accept Northern Ireland as part of a United Ireland. This is what is stated in the GFA.

UK healthcare is not that much higher than Ireland and how is Ireland a mess?

Ireland is 2nd behind Luxembourg for the highest GDP per capita in Europe. Small countries do very well in the EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...PP)_per_capita

The problem with Northern Ireland is that it is not very competitive and being part of the UK is very much a backwater. If they joined the Irish their economy would become a lot more competitive and less reliant on tax dollars to prop themselves up. They would get a lot of investment from other countries instead of just been an appendage of the UK.

Economically, Northern Ireland could benefit substantially from merging with the Republic.

The economic policies of Northern Ireland have long been inadequate. We have underinvested in skills and infrastructure – the core elements of a modern economy.

The Republic has done much better with both, assisted by a lower corporation tax rate.

The result is much higher levels of productivity.

Accountancy and consultancy firm PwC calculates that RoI is an astonishing 60% more productive than NI.

Moreover, as someone who has lived in the north west for the best part of two decades, the level of neglect and under-investment in and around Londonderry is shameful.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/op...land-1-8596200

Anyway the facts are that Northern Ireland looks like it will be more aligned with Ireland than the UK if and when Brexit happens and with demographics it will get more distant from the UK and closer to Ireland. In the end it will be up to both populations in Ireland to decide what they want for their future which is how it should be as they are the people that live on the island of Ireland.

Basically Brexit has put on the front foot the issue of a United Ireland and more people are discussing this.

Part of the reason for this shift is that since the Good Friday Agreement brought peace to the island twenty-one years ago, removing not just the border infrastructure but the psychological barriers that accompanied it, Irish people on both sides of the border have been able to enjoy the illusion of belonging to one country. From the all-Ireland rugby team to cross-border cooperation in trade and tourism to the huge increase in traffic back and forth, life on the island and relations between North and South had gradually normalized. (Prior to the 1998 peace agreement, many people in the South, aside from those living in border counties, never set foot in Northern Ireland.)

Then there’s the economy. In 2015, a group of academics from the US, Switzerland, and Canada compiled a report titled “Modeling Irish Unification,” examining what would be the likely economic effects of a newly-formed, thirty-two-county Ireland. The first such simulation of its kind, the report predicted that the struggling North, the weakest link in the UK economy, would benefit enormously from joining forces with the South, which would in turn see some modest gains. All told, the study found, reunification could deliver a 31.2 billion euro boost to the all-island GDP in the first eight years. Despite its overwhelmingly positive conclusions, the report received relatively little attention. Before Brexit, it was understandable that the findings of what then seemed an entirely hypothetical scenario would be largely ignored. But now, with both the Northern and Southern economies due to take a significant hit because of Brexit, this alternative prospectus has acquired a new pertinency.

https://johnmenadue.com/sadhbh-walsh...ooks-22-10-19/

[Grace O'Malley]

This is also interesting and a sign of how things are changing.

The deputy chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland has been appointed to run the Republic’s police force in an extraordinary cross-border job switch.

Drew Harris will take up his post as commissioner of the Garda Síochána in September after a 35-year career in policing in the UK, principally in Northern Ireland.

That change was seen as a new beginning and a chance to build trust across the sectarian divide. The RUC was a regular target of the IRA, something Harris had direct experience of after his father was killed in 1989 by a car bomb.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...garda-siochana

A Northern Irish Protestant is commissioner of the Garda Síochána. Don't tell me that's not progress? But then the Republic's first President Douglas Hyde was a Protestant but he was very much an Irishman who was very involved in the preservation of the Irish language.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Hyde

[sean]

Lots of countries weren't united in the past including England. Ireland was united under Brian Boru. All populations were tribal in the past.

The High Kings of Ireland were more of hegemons than kings of Ireland. "While the High Kings' degree of control varied, Ireland was never ruled by them as a politically unified state, as the High King was conceived of as an overlord exercising suzerainty over, and receiving tribute from, the independent kingdoms beneath him". England had a similar position like this before 927 A.D. called Bretwaldas.

You really can't just resolve the issue of Ireland with "British" people. The Irish have to be included which is why any vote will include the Northern Irish but also the rest of Ireland. The Northern Irish would vote on if they wanted to join the rest of Ireland and simultaneously the people in the rest of Ireland would vote on whether they would accept Northern Ireland as part of a United Ireland. This is what is stated in the GFA.

If NI votes to join Ireland, then it should remain as a special autonomous region. Continued commitment to the Good Friday Agreement is still important in a united Ireland, as the UK, Ireland and other international bodies are guarantors of it as such.

UK healthcare is not that much higher than Ireland and how is Ireland a mess? Ireland is 2nd behind Luxembourg for the highest GDP per capita in Europe. Small countries do very well in the EU.

Ireland doesn't have a perfect healthcare system, especially with the wait times, but it beats not going into debt just because you got into an accident and needed an ambulance ride (and your insurance has a high deductible), or had to have surgery that wasn't covered on your insurance because you can only afford the shittiest plan. People who have serious diseases are being denied healthcare and have to use 'GoFundMe' to get donations.

Ireland isn't rich. Yes, there is a huge amount of money coming in from big corporations but that money is centered in Dublin, into the hands of corrupt bureaucrats and officials. It's a bit like the City of London and wider England. The rural areas and smaller towns are left to rot.

Those with power offered up Irelands arsehole to the globalists and made it a fucking tax haven for the rich. Now tracts of good land and properties are sold on the cheap to foreigners and they get to run their globalist experiment on the Irish by flouridating them, covering the island in 5G, putting migrants in every little town and village they can (that again, have no funding and can't cope). They’re getting tons of migrant imports while the native Irish are facing a homeless/drug epidemic.

GDP is a fucking con. The Irish are among the highest debt per persons in the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...eeks-1.3001026

https://www.thesun.ie/news/3385032/r...-people-leave/

All their young and educated see the state this island is in and give up on it for Australia and Canada.

The problem with Northern Ireland is that it is not very competitive and being part of the UK is very much a backwater. If they joined the Irish their economy would become a lot more competitive and less reliant on tax dollars to prop themselves up. They would get a lot of investment from other countries instead of just been an appendage of the UK.

A border poll in the next 5 years will fail. People vote based on economics first and the Republic can't afford the utter economic and industrial black hole that Northen Ireland is. There is literally NOTHING there of value. Quite frankly researchers are baffled by the fact all of them haven't hung themselves.

Anyway the facts are that Northern Ireland looks like it will be more aligned with Ireland than the UK if and when Brexit happens and with demographics it will get more distant from the UK and closer to Ireland. In the end it will be up to both populations in Ireland to decide what they want for their future which is how it should be as they are the people that live on the island of Ireland. Basically Brexit has put on the front foot the issue of a United Ireland and more people are discussing this.

Brexit is already economically forecasted to fuck the Republic harder than the UK itself. I really want to cut them loose and make them your problem. I hope they burn quite honestly, and the funniest part is that the EU sources have basically made clear they are about to throw the Irish under a bus so they can keep exporting to the British market. You can take Sinn Féin too since they've been defrauding the tax payer with their eastern euros for votes scheme.

[Nazarene]

Korea
Ireland
Cyprus

[Grace O'Malley]

The High Kings of Ireland were more of hegemons than kings of Ireland. "While the High Kings' degree of control varied, Ireland was never ruled by them as a politically unified state, as the High King was conceived of as an overlord exercising suzerainty over, and receiving tribute from, the independent kingdoms beneath him". England had a similar position like this before 927 A.D. called Bretwaldas.

Whether they were unified or not how does that impact on the present? It's a non-issue. Europe in the 1100s is not Europe today. Ireland was a tribal society with people of the same ethnicity in all of Ireland. It would have been a united country today if not for British interference.

If NI votes to join Ireland, then it should remain as a special autonomous region. Continued commitment to the Good Friday Agreement is still important in a united Ireland, as the UK, Ireland and other international bodies are guarantors of it as such.

It will be what the populations decide and will be a lot more democratic than what happened to Ireland when it was partitioned in 1922.

Ireland doesn't have a perfect healthcare system, especially with the wait times, but it beats not going into debt just because you got into an accident and needed an ambulance ride (and your insurance has a high deductible), or had to have surgery that wasn't covered on your insurance because you can only afford the shittiest plan. People who have serious diseases are being denied healthcare and have to use 'GoFundMe' to get donations.

The UK health system is not much higher in the ranking as far as EU systems go. Ranking might go up and down. It will be interesting to see the impact of Brexit on the UK health system as a lot of their employees were from other EU countries.

Ireland isn't rich. Yes, there is a huge amount of money coming in from big corporations but that money is centered in Dublin, into the hands of corrupt bureaucrats and officials. It's a bit like the City of London and wider England. The rural areas and smaller towns are left to rot.

Ireland has a very strong economy and a very productive workforce. They have made big strides in the last 20 years. The majority of the Irish population is centred around Dublin and surrounding areas. Cork is in fact predicted to be the fastest growing area in Ireland over the next 20 years.

“In the southern region, we are creating three nodes of investment in Cork, Limerick and Waterford and if we are going to counterbalance the dominance of Dublin then we are going to have to create economies of scale in these cities to create alternative pull factors for business investment.”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...tate-1.3397820

Those with power offered up Irelands arsehole to the globalists and made it a fucking tax haven for the rich. Now tracts of good land and properties are sold on the cheap to foreigners and they get to run their globalist experiment on the Irish by flouridating them, covering the island in 5G, putting migrants in every little town and village they can (that again, have no funding and can't cope). They’re getting tons of migrant imports while the native Irish are facing a homeless/drug epidemic.

GDP is a fucking con. The Irish are among the highest debt per persons in the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...eeks-1.3001026

https://www.thesun.ie/news/3385032/r...-people-leave/

All their young and educated see the state this island is in and give up on it for Australia and Canada.

Ireland in fact has had a brain-gain rather than a brain-drain.

The number of third-level graduates moving to Ireland has steadily increased in recent years, from 32,000 in 2013 to 53,000 in 2019. The increase amounted to almost 8 per cent in the 12 months to April 2019.

Irish have always immigrated. It's just how the Irish are. Some come back but even if they move many keep strong ties to the country. Ireland's population is still increasing.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...gain-1.3998770

A border poll in the next 5 years will fail. People vote based on economics first and the Republic can't afford the utter economic and industrial black hole that Northen Ireland is. There is literally NOTHING there of value. Quite frankly researchers are baffled by the fact all of them haven't hung themselves.

You sound very biased. Ireland is a lovely country. You should perhaps visit and you might be pleasantly surprised. Northern Ireland has just been badly mismanaged. It just needs more investment and now that it will be semi-aligned to the EU it will gain an advantage to other parts of the UK. Even Boris said this. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9194476.html

Brexit is already economically forecasted to fuck the Republic harder than the UK itself. I really want to cut them loose and make them your problem. I hope they burn quite honestly, and the funniest part is that the EU sources have basically made clear they are about to throw the Irish under a bus so they can keep exporting to the British market. You can take Sinn Féin too since they've been defrauding the tax payer with their eastern euros for votes scheme.

Sinn Féin and DUP are shite. It is a pity people don't vote for the more moderate parties. Sinn Féin get no where in the Republic. Anyway you're really showing your true colours.

Here are Ireland's top trading partners.

Below is a list showcasing 15 of Ireland’s top trading partners in terms of Irish export sales. That is, countries that imported the most Irish shipments by dollar value during 2018. Also shown is each import country’s percentage of total Irish exports.

United States: US$46 billion (27.9% of total Irish exports)
Belgium: $21.7 billion (13.2%)
United Kingdom: $18.7 billion (11.4%)
Germany: $12.2 billion (7.4%)
Netherlands: $9 billion (5.4%)
Switzerland: $7.7 billion (4.6%)
France: $6.2 billion (3.8%)
China: $5.4 billion (3.3%)
Japan: $4.6 billion (2.8%)
Italy: $4.3 billion (2.6%)
Spain: $3 billion (1.8%)
Mexico: $1.7 billion (1%)
Canada: $1.6 billion (1%)
Poland: $1.4 billion (0.8%)
Sweden: $1.1 billion (0.7%)

Almost nine-tenths (87.6%) of Irish exports in 2018 were delivered to the above 15 trade partners.

So 11.4% to the UK. They could easily find other markets if push came to shove.

Truth of the matter is that Northern Ireland is one of the regions that will be hardest hit by Brexit.

In terms of the regional impact, studies have reached some contrasting conclusions. Figure 1 presents Whitehall estimates of the effects of different Brexit scenarios by region. The North East, West Midlands, Northern Ireland and North West are projected to be hardest hit. There is a strong overlap with the regions where living standards have already been most squeezed by inflation.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...t-from-brexit/

As for the EU throwing Ireland under a bus that is just wishful thinking. The EU have been steadfast in their support of Ireland so how are they "throwing Ireland under a bus"?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1VH20N

Why would the EU throw Ireland under a bus when it is made up of all these other countries? It would not be good practice for the EU to throw a fellow EU country "under the bus". How would that look to all the other countries in the EU? Sorry but that's not going to happen.

Very good article on the subject here.

But are they right? The big thing to reckon with here is that the EU was not being merely altruistic in sticking by Ireland. It had real interests of its own at stake in the Border question.

One was the obvious but often overlooked reality that the EU is mostly made up of small countries. The British have always seen it as a Franco-German axis, but three of its six founding members (Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg) were small states. Of the 28 current members, 19 are countries with populations under 11 million people. Eight are even smaller than Ireland.

For the EU to be seen to abandon or betray one little member state would have sent a message to the rest: when push comes to shove, your interests are of no great account. The long-term damage would have been disastrous.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...exit-1.4074349

So tell me again that "EU sources have basically made clear they are about to throw the Irish under a bus so they can keep exporting to the British market"? Did you read that in The Express or the Daily Mail?

The EU is not going to throw one of it's own members "under a bus". That's one of the advantages of being an EU member.