Threats Target Macedonia Opposition Talks to Form Govt

[MKLion]

All of Balkans will be in the EU eventually, a part of the globalized world and a trading block. That's not really up for debate and it's more about when rather than if.

All those videos of protests, now do something concrete for once. Go attack the Albanian threat, depose Zaev. Do something other than just bark. Now that it's clear that he will get the mandate so VMRO can't block it, what are you going to do except protest?

Neither of your examples were of any defense organization either, not in the way that I meant it. Where's Macedonian military groups that are ready, why aren't they starting something?

Well I used to agree up until Brexit. Now I am not so sure. The EU is a mess right now and the EU of today may not even exist in 10 years from now. Its really a political union that has over regulated the continent and created a big financial and humanitarian mess. Look at the Economy of Greece, Italy, Portugal and the migrant crisis Merkel created. They don’t seem to be doing that good of a job. The only real reason I want Macedonia to become a part of the EU is that it will raise the socioeconomic status of the country since its so shitty right now.

Also Macedonia not being a part of the EU has been a bit of a mixed blessing. By not being in the EU its energized the Albanians to emigrate from the country into Western Europe stabilizing their numbers.

If you read my post history I have never advocated Macedonia going to war with Albanians. Its not in the interest of the Macedonians or Albanians. As far as Macedonians protecting their country and going to war that’s the job of the Army and not the job of the regular citizens or even mine. They can deal with protecting the country that’s what their paid to do. The last thing the Balkans needs is another war and that goes for every country of the Balkans.

In any case, Macedonia doesn’t need to have a war with the Albanians. All the Macedonians need is time. Don't think so?

Well from independence of Macedonia until around 2006 the raw number of Albanian students was always increasing in the country. It hit a peak of around 77-78000 students in the mid 2000’s. After that date and up until today the number of Albanian students in Macedonia has been collapsing. It has collapsed roughly 17% since 2008 which is just 8 short years. The only explanation of this is emigration of Albanians. So now I ask you, in another 8-10 years from now if these trends continue what will the Albanian population in the country look like?

You can check the stats fro yourself at this link

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrethodniSoop...id=19&rbrObl=5


Albanian primary school students at the end of the school year
2008/2009: 71,436
2009/2010: 69,034
2010/2011: 65,121
2011/2012: 64,213
2012/2013: 62,660
2013/2014: 61,298
2014/2015: 61,608
2015/2016: 59,437

As I have said in my previous posts Macedonia just needs to keep its shit together for another 10 years and we all good son .

[Laberia]

Well I used to agree up until Brexit. Now I am not so sure. The EU is a mess right now and the EU of today may not even exist in 10 years from now. Its really a political union that has over regulated the continent and created a big financial and humanitarian mess. Look at the Economy of Greece, Italy, Portugal and the migrant crisis Merkel created. They don’t seem to be doing that good of a job. The only real reason I want Macedonia to become a part of the EU is that it will raise the socioeconomic status of the country since its so shitty right now.

Also Macedonia not being a part of the EU has been a bit of a mixed blessing. By not being in the EU its energized the Albanians to emigrate from the country into Western Europe stabilizing their numbers.

If you read my post history I have never advocated Macedonia going to war with Albanians. Its not in the interest of the Macedonians or Albanians. As far as Macedonians protecting their country and going to war that’s the job of the Army and not the job of the regular citizens or even mine. They can deal with protecting the country that’s what their paid to do. The last thing the Balkans needs is another war and that goes for every country of the Balkans.

In any case, Macedonia doesn’t need to have a war with the Albanians. All the Macedonians need is time. Don't think so?

Well from independence of Macedonia until around 2006 the raw number of Albanian students was always increasing in the country. It hit a peak of around 77-78000 students in the mid 2000’s. After that date and up until today the number of Albanian students in Macedonia has been collapsing. It has collapsed roughly 17% since 2008 which is just 8 short years. The only explanation of this is emigration of Albanians. So now I ask you, in another 8-10 years from now if these trends continue what will the Albanian population in the country look like?

You can check the stats fro yourself at this link

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrethodniSoop...id=19&rbrObl=5


Albanian primary school students at the end of the school year
2008/2009: 71,436
2009/2010: 69,034
2010/2011: 65,121
2011/2012: 64,213
2012/2013: 62,660
2013/2014: 61,298
2014/2015: 61,608
2015/2016: 59,437

As I have said in my previous posts Macedonia just needs to keep its shit together for another 10 years and we all good son .

Your country has for years now that is fraying in a crisis. If someone who does not know the reality in your country, let's say a Chinese asks you a information about the reasons for this crisis, you, how will respond?

[The Illyrian Warrior]

Well I used to agree up until Brexit. Now I am not so sure. The EU is a mess right now and the EU of today may not even exist in 10 years from now. Its really a political union that has over regulated the continent and created a big financial and humanitarian mess. Look at the Economy of Greece, Italy, Portugal and the migrant crisis Merkel created. They don’t seem to be doing that good of a job. The only real reason I want Macedonia to become a part of the EU is that it will raise the socioeconomic status of the country since its so shitty right now.

Also Macedonia not being a part of the EU has been a bit of a mixed blessing. By not being in the EU its energized the Albanians to emigrate from the country into Western Europe stabilizing their numbers.

If you read my post history I have never advocated Macedonia going to war with Albanians. Its not in the interest of the Macedonians or Albanians. As far as Macedonians protecting their country and going to war that’s the job of the Army and not the job of the regular citizens or even mine. They can deal with protecting the country that’s what their paid to do. The last thing the Balkans needs is another war and that goes for every country of the Balkans.

In any case, Macedonia doesn’t need to have a war with the Albanians. All the Macedonians need is time. Don't think so?

Well from independence of Macedonia until around 2006 the raw number of Albanian students was always increasing in the country. It hit a peak of around 77-78000 students in the mid 2000’s. After that date and up until today the number of Albanian students in Macedonia has been collapsing. It has collapsed roughly 17% since 2008 which is just 8 short years. The only explanation of this is emigration of Albanians. So now I ask you, in another 8-10 years from now if these trends continue what will the Albanian population in the country look like?

You can check the stats fro yourself at this link

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrethodniSoop...id=19&rbrObl=5


Albanian primary school students at the end of the school year
2008/2009: 71,436
2009/2010: 69,034
2010/2011: 65,121
2011/2012: 64,213
2012/2013: 62,660
2013/2014: 61,298
2014/2015: 61,608
2015/2016: 59,437

As I have said in my previous posts Macedonia just needs to keep its shit together for another 10 years and we all good son .

You're not telling whole story here, you left Macedonians out for sake of comparing and that's not all what you left unmentioned, under slavo-macedonian language instruction schools you have many students of Muslims background who as rule decreases actual number of slavo-orthodox macedonians into less then 100k students, while remaining left goes in their respective ethnic group, also, while I see an decrease from Albanian side I see a decline in macedonian side also although your demographical spiral has not reached the lowest point yet, but when engine (those of childbearing age) of population falls down (which it will eventually) you will go down at much faster rate and no EU or emigration hope will balance this out for you.

[The Illyrian Warrior]

Not really. I am only going over the demographic trends affecting the entire country. Here are the births for both Albanians and Macedonians from 2003 until 2013. These stats were previously given throughout this thread.

Ethnicity Macedonian Albanian
2003 ...... 13353 ..... 9766
2004 ...... 12488 ..... 7390
2005 ...... 11923 ..... 7230
2006 ...... 11707 ..... 7396
2007 ...... 11807 ..... 7392
2008 ...... 12254 ..... 7309
2009 ...... 12490 ..... 7454
2010 ...... 12658 ..... 7888
2011 ...... 11544 ..... 7727
2012 ...... 11995 ..... 8035
2013 ...... 11550 ..... 8137


Since 2003 to 2013 Macedonian births have fallen 13,5% and Albanian births have fallen by 16.7%. The reason there are more Albanians being added is because of the younger Albanian demographic and less Albanians dying vs. more Macedonian deaths per given year. But the actual number of births of Albanians has decreased MORE than Macedonian!

You play like you're a know it all on demographic issues but you forget the fact that till 2003,births happening abroad and in the country were counted together in the register.

After 2003 the statistical office separates the two,thats why Albanians have a strong downfall in 2004 compared to 2003.

FYRMacedonians

1992: 17.380 (52,3%)
1993: 16.666 (51,5%)
1994: 16.704 (49,9%)
1995: 15.853 (49,3%)
1996: 15.315 (48,8%)
1997: 14.290 (48,5%)
1998: 14.004 (47,9%)
1999: 13.308 (48,7%)
2000: 14.173 (48,4%)
2001: 13.299 (49,2%)
2002: 13.639 (49,1%)
2003: 13.353 (49,4%)

After 2003 the statistical office removed the births happening abroad

2004: 12.488 (53,5%)
2005: 11.923 (53,0%)
2006: 11.707 (51,8%)
2007: 11.807 (52,0%)
2008: 12.254 (53,3%)
2009: 12.490 (52,7%)
2010: 12.658 (52,1%)
2011: 11.544 (50,6%)
2012: 11.995 (50,8%)
2013: 11.550 (49,91%)

Albanians

1992: 11.479 (34.5%)
1993: 11.353 (35.1%)
1994: 12.010 (35.9%)
1995: 11.607 (36.1%)
1996: 11.409 (36.3%)
1997: 10.491 (35.6%)
1998: 10.641 (36.4%)
1999: 9.838 (36.0%)
2000: 10.750 (36.7%)
2001: 9.604 (35.6%)
2002: 10.118 (36.4%)
2003: 9.766 (36.2%)

2004: 7.390 (31.6%)
2005: 7.230 (32,1%)
2006: 7.396 (32,7%)
2007: 7.392 (32,5%)
2008: 7.309 (31,8%)
2009: 7.454 (31,4%)
2010: 7.888 (32,4%)
2011: 7.727 (33,9%)
2012: 8.035 (34,1%)
2013: 8.137 (35,16%)

Births abroad (total,of all ethnicities)

2008: 3.728
2009: 3.510
2010: 3.642
2011: 4.012
2012: 4.221
2013: 4.373

The statistical office after 2003 also stops giving the ethnic affiliation of the births happening abroad,but looking at the municipalities from where the parents of the children originate from,we can say that at least 3500 of the births in 2013 are Albanians.
Which means Albanians have been maintaining the same amount of births in the last 21 years.
The difference is that they have been having a larger growth of births abroad.

This is why I don't take you seriously, you tend to manipulate alot with numbers.

[MKLion]

You're not telling whole story here, you left Macedonians out for sake of comparing and that's not all what you left unmentioned, under slavo-macedonian language instruction schools you have many students of Muslims background who as rule decreases actual number of slavo-orthodox macedonians into less then 100k students, while remaining left goes in their respective ethnic group, also, while I see an decrease from Albanian side I see a decline in macedonian side also although your demographical spiral has not reached the lowest point yet, but when engine (those of childbearing age) of population falls down (which it will eventually) you will go down at much faster rate and no EU or emigration hope will balance this out for you.

Here are the Statistics of Both Macedonian vs. Albanian Language students in direct comparison. The reason you will see a difference (in the other numbers I posted a few posts back) is because one set of numbers is coming from this link

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PublikaciiPoO...id=41&rbrObl=5

And the other numbers are coming from this link.

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrethodniSoop...id=19&rbrObl=5

There is a slight variation in the actual number for each but its in general the same thing. One is a publication of stats and one is a news release. If you even bothered to look and do your own research rather than just respond you would already know this but I have to walk you through it like a third grader which is fine.

Macedonian primary school students
2006/2007: 122,016 = 53,4% share of the total
2007/2008: 118,507 = 53,6%
2008/2009: 115,605 = 53,7%
2009/2010: 112,293 = 53,7%
2010/2011: 109,765 = 54,3%
2011/2012: 107,564 = 54,3%
2012/2013: 105,648 = 54.3%
2013/2014: 104,254 = 54.7%
2014/2015: 103,036 = 54.7%

15.5% DECREASE in 9 years

Albanian primary school students
2006/2007: 78,467 = 34,3% share of the total
2007/2008: 75,141 = 34,0%
2008/2009: 72,570 = 33,7%
2009/2010: 69,922 = 33,4%
2010/2011: 66,156 = 32,7%
2011/2012: 65,085 = 32,8%
2012/2013: 63,483 = 32,7%
2013/2014: 62,188 = 32.6%
2014/2015: 62,012 = 32.9%

21% DECREASE in 9 years


So not only have Albanians dropped 21% in the past 9 years which is almost 6% faster than the Macedonian students but they have also dropped from 34.3% to 32.9% of the student population. The number of Albanian students in Macedonia currently is at the same level as the number of Albanian students that were in the country in 1973.

Now remember there is absolutely no reason for the Albanian student population to decrease other than emigration. Thats it, there is no counter-argument. Albanians are emigrating END OF STORY.

For the Macedonian numbers its a mixture of having lower birth rate and emigration.

In the 2-3 years I have been on this forum (an observer and not just a poster) I have yet to see you post ONE fucking statistical number from any source on anything related to statistics related to Macedonia. So if you have nothing to contribute to this thread other than "your hiding and manipulating duh nemberzzzz"

Then you need toooooooooooo:

[The Illyrian Warrior]

Here are the Statistics of Both Macedonian vs. Albanian Language students in direct comparison. The reason you will see a difference (in the other numbers I posted a few posts back) is because one set of numbers is coming from this link

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PublikaciiPoO...id=41&rbrObl=5

And the other numbers are coming from this link.

http://www.stat.gov.mk/PrethodniSoop...id=19&rbrObl=5

There is a slight variation in the actual number for each but its in general the same thing. One is a publication of stats and one is a news release. If you even bothered to look and do your own research rather than just respond you would already know this but I have to walk you through it like a third grader which is fine.

Macedonian primary school students
2006/2007: 122,016 = 53,4% share of the total
2007/2008: 118,507 = 53,6%
2008/2009: 115,605 = 53,7%
2009/2010: 112,293 = 53,7%
2010/2011: 109,765 = 54,3%
2011/2012: 107,564 = 54,3%
2012/2013: 105,648 = 54.3%
2013/2014: 104,254 = 54.7%
2014/2015: 103,036 = 54.7%

15.5% DECREASE in 9 years

Albanian primary school students
2006/2007: 78,467 = 34,3% share of the total
2007/2008: 75,141 = 34,0%
2008/2009: 72,570 = 33,7%
2009/2010: 69,922 = 33,4%
2010/2011: 66,156 = 32,7%
2011/2012: 65,085 = 32,8%
2012/2013: 63,483 = 32,7%
2013/2014: 62,188 = 32.6%
2014/2015: 62,012 = 32.9%

21% DECREASE in 9 years


So not only have Albanians dropped 21% in the past 9 years which is almost 6% faster than the Macedonian students but they have also dropped from 34.3% to 32.9% of the student population. The number of Albanian students in Macedonia currently is at the same level as the number of Albanian students that were in the country in 1973.

Now remember there is absolutely no reason for the Albanian student population to decrease other than emigration. Thats it, there is no counter-argument. Albanians are emigrating END OF STORY.

For the Macedonian numbers its a mixture of having lower birth rate and emigration.

In the 2-3 years I have been on this forum (an observer and not just a poster) I have yet to see you post ONE fucking statistical number from any source on anything related to statistics related to Macedonia. So if you have nothing to contribute to this thread other than "your hiding and manipulating duh nemberzzzz"

Then you need toooooooooooo:

Just scroll up and see response and see how manipulative and inaccurate you are with numbers, I already have many posts regarding FYROM demographics of which you can check out in bugarash thread, but it seems you were too busy aswell bothered with copy/pasting and adjusting stats for own satisfaction and counterargument with Bugarash during your 'observation'.............Also, since you regard yourself so highly (naively so) on demographics and population movements you gave none of your own perspective of childbearing age situation, from census 2002 table breakdown into religion with numbers, based on calculation your now present childbearing age is still on high point but after this generation does 'retire' you'll go downhill and will struggle to maintain this momentum, and we ain't talking for short gap rather a wide gap to capitulate on your favor cause almost ( soon to be) 30k less macedonians will be on childbearing age. (I will provide you the table I'm talking when I find it in bugarash thread)

It's really easy to copy/paste numbers from excel sheets but you haven't given so far an objective opinion by actually going deeper to this subject and provide us with much wider also accurate picture of present and why not future situation of FYROM, what you provided tells just a piece of the puzzle which can easily be changed over short course of time if we ignore many factors such as childbearing age among others.

[MKLion]

Just scroll up and see response and see how manipulative and inaccurate you are with numbers, I already have many posts regarding FYROM demographics of which you can check out in bugarash thread, but it seems you were too busy aswell bothered with copy/pasting and adjusting stats for own satisfaction and counterargument with Bugarash during your 'observation'.............Also, since you regard yourself so highly (naively so) on demographics and population movements you gave none of your own perspective of childbearing age situation, from census 2002 table breakdown into religion with numbers, based on calculation your now present childbearing age is still on high point but after this generation does 'retire' you'll go downhill and will struggle to maintain this momentum, and we ain't talking for short gap rather a wide gap to capitulate on your favor cause almost ( soon to be) 30k less macedonians will be on childbearing age. (I will provide you the table I'm talking when I find it in bugarash thread)

It's really easy to copy/paste numbers from excel sheets but you haven't given so far an objective opinion by actually going deeper to this subject and provide us with much wider also accurate picture of present and why not future situation of FYROM, what you provided tells just a piece of the puzzle which can easily be changed over short course of time if we ignore many factors such as childbearing age among others.

The Numbers are from the Macedonian State Statistical Office unlike your arguments which are being pulled out of your ass.

[The Illyrian Warrior]

The Numbers are from the Macedonian State Statistical Office unlike your arguments which are being pulled out of your ass.

Not refuting the reliability of numbers however you tend not cover entirely and accurately (intentionally) demographics patterns, you interpretation is not objective at all since covers solely a part of demographics not complete story (you take only those who fits your narrative).....As expected you run away from question I made about another important pattern such as childbearing age which eventually will go down for FYROMonkeys subsequently affect enormously your numbers in coming years.

[MKLion]

Not refuting the reliability of numbers however you tend not cover entirely and accurately (intentionally) demographics patterns, you interpretation is not objective at all since covers solely a part of demographics not complete story (you take only those who fits your narrative).....As expected you run away from question I made about another important pattern such as childbearing age which eventually will go down for FYROMonkeys subsequently affect enormously your numbers in coming years.

I have stated numerous times that the population of Macedonians is decreasing everyone knows that. The main reason is because the older Macedonians are dying and Macedonians have a Total Fertility rate that is lower than 2.1. The main decrease is not emigration in general (although it does play a smaller role)

When the Albanian population is decreasing in number it's because of emigration and not due to the older Albanians dying as their proportion of deaths is smaller than the Macedonians. So when the parents emigrate they take their kids out of school during the most vital time in their lives. So not only do you lose two parents to emigration you also lose two Albanian kids who have not had the chance to have offspring in the country. This loss is worse than ours. So right now for the Albanians their Births > Deaths + Emigration. This is why in 25 years the population of the Albanians only a slight percentage point increase in that amount of time

The moment when Births < Deaths + emigration its game over. All the Albanians can do is hope that the Macedonian population falls before this happens.

[wvwvw]

3/13/17 Chris Deliso on the foreign provocateurs exacerbating Macedonia’s political crisis
By Scott Horton - March 13, 2017

Chris Deliso, director of the independent Balkanalysis.com, discusses the three-year-long political crisis in Macedonia brought about when a consortium of internal and external agitators tried to replace the long-ruling conservative party. These agitators included Macedonia’s leftist Social Democrats, Albania’s prime minister, European intelligence agencies, George Soros’s Open Society Foundation, and the US Ambassador to Macedonia.

Podcast (thescotthortonshow): Play in new window | Download
https://www.libertarianinstitute.org...itical-crisis/