Caspian Report's Origin of the Somali Civil War

[Sekarotuinen]

Also, how much control does Somalia have over Somaliland, I'm under the impression that Al Shabaab is really the only game in town at this point for anti-government factions, after the ICU's defeat, and it is slowly weakening.

Once they are through with Al Shabaab, will Somalia inevitably go to war with Somaliland? How does the autonomous Puntland region factor into this?

[Sekarotuinen]

It's not Masonic, its Pan-Somali...each point represents a Somali region that needed to be freed from foreign occupation:

British Somaliland
Italian Somaliland
French Somaliland (now Djibouti)
The Ogaden (occupied by Ethiopia)
Northern Frontier Province (awarded to Kenya by the British)

You're like a German, my only response can be 'Should've won the war!'

[Wadaad]

all my support goes to the somali army

Al Shabab is just one small challenge...and yes Somalia needs a strong army, but it wont be allowed. This foreign supported government is only allowed to operate if it is weak. Neither Kenya or Ethiopia will be happy with a strong Somali army since about 40% of Somali 'land' is in their territory.

[Sekarotuinen]

Al Shabab is just one small challenge...and yes Somalia needs a strong army, but it wont be allowed. This foreign supported government is only allowed to operate if it is weak. Neither Kenya or Ethiopia will be happy with a strong Somali army since about 40% of Somali 'land' is in their territory.

What's your opinion of Afars, will you conquer Djibouti for greater Somali?

[Wadaad]

Also, how much control does Somalia have over Somaliland, I'm under the impression that Al Shabaab is really the only game in town at this point for anti-government factions, after the ICU's defeat, and it is slowly weakening.

Once they are through with Al Shabaab, will Somalia inevitably go to war with Somaliland? How does the autonomous Puntland region factor into this?

Somaliland is basically the model for a stable Somalia. The secret to Somaliland's success is that it is based around one particular clan etho-state. The Isaaq are maybe 15-18% of Somalis. There is nothing tying Somaliland right now with the Mogadishu gov't, and there is no need for a war. If a war were to erupt, it would be over the "Saul and Sanaag" region of eastern Somaliland/west Puntland since it has non-Isaaq people living there (Dhulbahanta and Warsangali Somalis who are more related to their Puntland kin). But in that Somaliland-Puntland dynamic we have Ethiopian support.

Actually, Ethiopia is very pro-Somaliland since its success means the less chance of a "Pan-Somali movement".

Finally, Somaliland diaspora is very powerful...many are based in the UK. Such as Britain olympic medalist Sir Mohamed Farah



or BBC editor Raage Omaar





Either way...Somaliland's success is not just a model for our Somali brothers, but a model for all of Africa. And only something evil would cause an invasion of Somaliland, why else would anyone want it to fail? It is a democratic entity, with political parties and multiple and successfully monitored elections since 1991...it does not rely on foreign id like Somalia, but rather on Somaliland diaspora fundraising and self taxation.

[Sekarotuinen]

Somaliland is basically the model for a stable Somalia. The secret to Somaliland's success is that it is based around one particular clan etho-state. The Isaaq are maybe 15-18% of Somalis. There is nothing tying Somaliland right now with the Mogadishu gov't, and there is no need for a war. If a war were to erupt, it would be over the "Saul and Sanaag" region of eastern Somaliland/west Puntland since it has non-Isaaq people living there (Dhulbahanta and Warsangali Somalis who are more related to their Puntland kin). But in that Somaliland-Puntland dynamic we have Ethiopian support.

Actually, Ethiopia is very pro-Somaliland since its success means the less chance of a "Pan-Somali movement".

Finally, Somaliland diaspora is very powerful...many are based in the UK. Such as Britain olympic medalist Sir Mohamed Farah



or BBC editor Raage Omaar





Either way...Somaliland's success is not just a model for our Somali brothers, but a model for all of Africa. And only something evil would cause an invasion of Somaliland, why else would anyone want it to fail? It is a democratic entity, with political parties and multiple and successfully monitored elections since 1991...it does not rely on foreign id like Somalia, but rather on Somaliland diaspora fundraising and self taxation.

So are you in favor of a federal 'greater Somalia' with provincial borders drawn around clan lines, or do you wish to see the clan system broken, in order to foster greater unity - a truly Somali identity.

[Wadaad]

What's your opinion of Afars, will you conquer Djibouti for greater Somali?

Djibouti is 2/3 Somali...Djibouti city is a Somali city.

Afars live in Tadjoura and Obock, and the majorit of Afars are to be found in Eritrea and Ethiopia's Afar state (where they found Lucy's bones and other Austrolopithecene fossils)


They are the closest ethnic group to Somalis, but unlike us, do not have a Afar country to call their own. Out of Cushitic solidarity I have a soft spot for them, Afars remind me of the fate of Somalis had we continued being under Abyssinian colonism, so in a sense, thank you white man, for carving up colonies that would be able to gain independence in 1960...while the poor Afars had to live with being under Ethiopian imperialism, then split up between Ethiopia and Eritrea. (I admit though, Eritrea has been good to its Afars and every ethnic group in Eritrea were Eritrean patriots who fought againt Ethiopia, except the Rashaida Arabs).

There are no issues between Somalis (the collective) and the Afar...they have small conflicts with the one Somali tribe they border, the Issa, but the Issa are the Somalis who resemble and behave the most similar to Afars anyways, so its just a 'cosmetic' issue (clash over watering wells, camel disputes, etc) nothing serious.

[Wadaad]

So are you in favor of a federal 'greater Somalia' with provincial borders drawn around clan lines, or do you wish to see the clan system broken, in order to foster greater unity - a truly Somali identity.

There is no Somali identity without the clan system. It cannot be dismantled except under some Maoist 'great leap forward' BS which is not worth the effort.

I'm in favor of a Emiratization of Somalia. There should be 5 or 6 Somali emirates under a United Somali Emirate.

Actually, Im in favor of the emiratization of Palestine as well...there should be atleast 2-3 Palistinian emirates.

Emirate of Gaza
Emirate of Ramallah
Emirate of Nablus

[Sekarotuinen]

There is no Somali identity without the clan system. It cannot be dismantled except under some Maoist 'great leap forward' BS which is not worth the effort.

I'm in favor of a Emiratization of Somalia. There should be 5 or 6 Somali emirates under a United Somali Emirate.

Actually, Im in favor of the emiratization of Palestine as well...there should be atleast 2-3 Palistinian emirates.

Emirate of Gaza
Emirate of Ramallah
Emirate of Nablus

Palestinians, and Levantines in general are a lot less clanish than other Arabs, please no.

As far as Somalia goes, how do you think the civil can be best solved/ ended, and are Somalis in Somalia generally Muslim or, """Muslim""" such as in a lot of Arab countries. Will Somalis accept a government that is not based in the Sharia if it comes to that?

[Wadaad]

Palestinians, and Levantines in general are a lot less clanish than other Arabs, please no.

As far as Somalia goes, how do you think the civil can be best solved/ ended, and are Somalis in Somalia generally Muslim or, """Muslim""" such as in a lot of Arab countries. Will Somalis accept a government that is not based in the Sharia if it comes to that?

Palestinians are indeed very clannish. There are the Barghouti clan that run Ramallah to this day for eg, the Jarrar who were the tax collecters in Jenin for the Ottomans, etc etc.
Palestinians and Levantines are actually more tribal than say Egyptians, who dont have such tribal concepts and are more urbane vs peasant in their dynamic.

Sharia is embedded in any civil law construct. If you mean things like a law decriminalizing polygamy, Somalis will fight it ofcourse, since that will be something imposed from outside, and we do not accept impositions.