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Last edited by Finnish Swede; 01-15-2018 at 02:18 PM.
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I think 3 currencies might work with three different Central Banks. The one country that really does wants to keep the status quo right now is Germany. Contrary to what many think Germany greatly benefits from the EURO while the others like France and Italy have been running large deficits and have slow growth since the EURO was adopted. They really need to devalue the currency to help these countries grow faster.
Germany can export a lot more with Greece in the EURO keeping the EURO weak that is the reason they gave them 3 bailouts vs letting them leave. Greece/Italy has indirectly provided Germany with a lot market share and a large trade surplus. If Greece left the EURO and the EURO became stronger that would be a problem for Germany as they would become less competitive especially vs Japan. Italy also exports a lot of vehicles and cannot devalue against Germany. Germany has found a sweet spot with the fixed EURO currency. They have huge surplus and are basically sucking their neighbors dry.
I cannot say I blame them it was the others that agreed to the EURO. But I do not think it would work long term. France and Italy cannot run deficits forever to compete and they cannot reform fast enough to compete with Germany(Especially Eastern Germany)
At some point something has to change. They cannot continue like this forever they will not survive another economic downturn. I think they need to break into more than one currency. Or they need to create some kind of banking/fiscal union. None of these things are popular enough to do so it is not looking pretty.
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The Nordic countries would benefit if there neighbors are more stable and can buy more products from Scandinavia. Scandinavia is quite small but it really needs products from other places especially in the winter. The world is now very intertwined with many places.
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