Future of Spain: Czechoslovak or Yugoslav variant?

[Mikula]

I would like to ask you, dwellers of Spain, what scenario is more real.
Yes, it is still posssible that Spain will stay together with Catalonia, but
I would like to ask you for a variant that Catalonia will leave Spain, actually.
What is more real, according to you - peaceful "divorce" like in Czechoslovakia
or bloody civil/ethnical conflict like in Yugoslavia?

Somewhere I read a viewpoint, that dissolution of Czechoslovakia was peaceful, because Czechs and Slovaks,
as a western Slavs are not so hotheaded, unlike their "southern brothers" Croats and Serbs.
I think that is not the reason.
Historical borderline between Czech lands (respective its eastern part Moravia) and Slovakia, corresponds with
ethnical borderline, too.
But in border teritories of Croatia were quite large areas dwelled predominately by the Serbs,
who refused to be separated from their fellow-Serbs.
Perhaps it could be answer to my question:
How much is Catalonia, homogenous ethnically, especially at its border territories?
And because Catalonia could encourage also another separatist movements,
I can also ask about ethnical situation in Basque areas, etc.

Thank you for your answers.

[Autrigón]

This is not Yugoslavia, is not a question about ethnicity, religion, etc like in the balkans.
Ethnically Catalans are like the rest of Spaniards, they don't have their own ethnicity, they are indistinguishable of any other Spaniard. In fact Spaniards of along the country have migrated there during the last centuries. Just a data, an important member from one of the most nationalist party descends from Andalusians (his parents).

This situation is a question of taxes, they say the pay a lot of taxes to the central government. Yes, that's all.

Despite you can see on tv most of the catalans don't want the independence. It is estimated between 55-60% (maybe more with the last situation).

The future? Politicians of both sides have had a childish behaviors. The best solution in my opinion, regional elections in Catalonia and I am sure that non-nationalist parties would win it and the normal situation would return.

About Basques, as you know in this case they have their own ethinicity, genetic or whatever...but in daily life they are indistinguishable of any other Spaniard or French (Basques in the French side).
Some months ago I read a statisc study that said the sentiment of Basques in the last years about be independent is very low.

We are in the XXI century and all of us is "mixed" and have ancestors of any other part of Spain. Even in my case that I have Catalan and Basque ancestors and from other places of the country.

This situation is a question of money, always money who rules the world.

[Brás Garcia de Mascarenhas]

The most likely scenario is that they are not going to become independent, the Spanish central government will never allow it.

Unlike Yugoslavia, there are no different ethnic groups or religions at stake in here. Yugoslavia was an authoritarian Communist state that was collapsing with several economical problems and had a long repertoire of repression and persecution among its inhabitants. Most people probably felt they had nothing to loose but to fight. It is not really the case with Catalonia which is one of the most developed regions in Spain with high living standards. Middle-class citizens with comfortable lives can go to the street protest, vote on referendums and engage on other similar activities but they are not going to form militias to fight for their independence, trust me. Especially when the motivations for the independence are mostly based on economic benefits rather than national identity.

If Catalonia separated from Spain, hypothetically speaking, the only thing they would have in common with ex-Yugoslavia states is the irrational hatred. You know, this rhetoric of hatred among Serbians, Croats and Bosnians who are virtually the same people, no matter how many theories they would like to bring up on how different they are.

Concerning the demographics of Catalonia since you asked, it has native Catalonians and Spaniards. Nearly all of them live in Barcelona metropolitan area (5 million inhabitants). According to statistics, 94,5% of the people living in Catalonia understand the Catalan language, 74,5% knows how to speak it, 74,4% can read it and 49,8% can write it. Both languages, Catalan and Castilian are widely spoken and used on every day-life in the region though.

[Quasar]

This is Spain we are talking about, a top 15 economy in the world, fourth in the EU, one of the oldest nations in Europe.

I don't know how this will unfold in terms of confilct, but everyone can be sure that Spain will remain as it is today.

And don't forget that unlike other cases, there are more than 50% in Catalonia that don't want independence.

[MinervaItalica]

Ethnically Catalans are like the rest of Spaniards, they don't have their own ethnicity.

This doesn't seem what Catalans affirm in interviews...

This is Spain we are talking about, a top 15 economy in the world, fourth in the EU, one of the oldest nations in Europe.

Are you sure?

OT: It will probably like a Slovenia thing.

[Quasar]

Are you sure?

Considering Brexit, yes

OT: It will probably like a Slovenia thing.

Spain and Yugoslavia: apple and oranges.

[MinervaItalica]

Considering Brexit, yes

Ah ok. But UK is not yet officially out.

Spain and Yugoslavia: apple and oranges.

Still something similar happened in Slovenia. Indipendence then immediately suspended and confirmed one year later.

[Quasar]

Still something similar happened in Slovenia. Indipendence then immediately suspended and confirmed one year later.

But will unfold very differently.

Yugoslavia was an artifically created State ruled by a dictator that couldn't last once Tito died.

Slovenia had the support of Germany and other European countries, Catalonia does not.

A Catalexit would be a major impact in the EU, even bigger than Brexit. No one in Europe want that.

[Sebastianus Rex]

[QUOTE]

The most likely scenario is that they are not going to become independent, the Spanish central government will never allow it.

Unlike Yugoslavia, there are no different ethnic groups or religions at stake in here. Yugoslavia was an authoritarian Communist state that was collapsing with several economical problems and had a long repertoire of repression and persecution among its inhabitants. Most people probably felt they had nothing to loose but to fight. It is not really the case with Catalonia which is one of the most developed regions in Spain with high living standards. Middle-class citizens with comfortable lives can go to the street protest, vote on referendums and engage on other similar activities but they are not going to form militias to fight for their independence, trust me. Especially when the motivations for the independence are mostly based on economic benefits rather than national identity.

100%.

Poorly explained and easily debunked supposed economic benefits promised by independentist think-thanks to manipulate the people...of course after dozens of major companies (including the public water supplier Aguas de Barcelona ) had transefered their social sieges to other places (mostly Madrid) since the beggining of this independentist fever, any non-retarded citizen already realized that economically the independence would be a disaster.

[MinervaItalica]

Slovenia had the support of Germany and other European countries, Catalonia does not.

I think to have heard that two countries support Catalonia: Switzerland and the Vatican.