Brexit: Can Theresa May get her deal through the Commons?

[♥ Lily ♥]

Brexit: Can Theresa May get her deal through the Commons?

By Peter Barnes
Senior Elections and Political Analyst, BBC News

16th November, 2018

The Brexit deal which has been negotiated by the UK and the EU is expected to be agreed at a special EU summit on Sunday 25th November.

After that, MPs will get their say on whether they approve of the deal or not. Several days of debate will be followed by what's known as the "meaningful vote".

Any attempt to work out the parliamentary arithmetic can only be an estimate so all numbers should be treated with caution. As things stand, though, there seems to be a majority against the proposed deal.

Theresa May relies on the 10 Democratic Unionist Party MPs for her majority in the House of Commons. Their opposition to the proposed deal alone could make winning the vote tricky but the prime minister's problems don't end there.



Some 51 Conservative MPs have signed up to the StandUp4Brexit campaign which argues that the proposed deal leaves the UK too close to the EU. (That includes Charlie Elphicke who is currently suspended from the party but generally votes with the government.)

Added to those are the seven pro-Brexit MPs who resigned from government or party jobs on 15th November.

Then there are, perhaps, a further 14 Conservative MPs from the Remain wing of the party who support the People's Vote campaign for another referendum or would like a closer relationship with the EU.

On the other side of the calculation, there are a handful of pro-Brexit Labour MPs who might back the deal. And a further group who could vote for it to stop the possible alternative of a "no deal" Brexit.

There's also one Liberal Democrat MP, Stephen Lloyd, who says he'll vote in favour of the deal to fulfil a pledge he made to his constituents.

As things stand, though, this group isn't big enough to outweigh the DUP and Conservative rebels.

Things can change of course. Mrs May will hope to persuade some of the rebels and more opposition MPs. But she has a long way to go.

[♥ Lily ♥]

We should've had a UK leave/independence supporter to take over from Cameron as the PM and to lead the exit plans with the EU... not one of the remain supporters of the EU referendum - such as May.

I was catching-up on the weekly PMQ's this evening (since it's Wednesday)... and was listening to politicians arguing with each other (recorded earlier today) in the UK Houses of Parliament.

MP's within the UK conservative and DUP coalition government were arguing over Northern Ireland..... SNP MP's from Scotland were arguing over wanting to remain in the EU... and staunch conservative Brexit supporters were opposing May's soft Brexit deal.

May's responses were robotic and wooden as usual.




6:51

[♥ Lily ♥]

Traitor May is doing this soft Brexit deliberately as she doesn't really want to leave the EU.

UKIP leader Gerrard Batten said the UK PM should tell President Juncker and his fellow Eurocrats how we'll leave the EU, not ask them. https://www.ukip.org/national-ukip-news-item.php?id=133

A Tory MP from her own Conservative party stood up in the House of Commons last week at PMQ's and he told her that she was betraying millions of voters. I think she should step-down as the PM and let someone more competent take over.

Brexit supporter MP's within her own party have resigned in anger of the proposed deal.

[Tooting Carmen]

Brexit could well lead to chaos, if there is no deal and no proper arrangements are made for trade and travel. The more people wake up to the destructive effects of leaving the EU, whether short-term or long-term, the better.

[♥ Lily ♥]

What a lousy deal that still ties us to the EU rules... plus immigrants can still freely move to the UK during the 'transition period' where nothing will change in the UK until December, 2020. That's not what Brexiteers voted for.

President Trump told Mrs. May on his visit to the UK this year that she should sue the EU. He sarcastically mocked her during a press conference in the UK together... 'I don't know what the UK is doing... whether they're leaving the EU or staying in the EU...'

Trump and Farage are good friends.

[♥ Lily ♥]

Brexit could well lead to chaos, if there is no deal and no proper arrangements are made for trade and travel. The more people wake up to the destructive effects of leaving the EU, whether short-term or long-term, the better.

I think she's doing it on purpose so that she gets no deal passed through UK parliament.... and then the arrogant and anti-democratic arseholes and remainiacs will call for a second referendum. Such traitors. And all that money she shouldn't be spending on an EU divorce bill... as if the UK hasn't given enough £billions to the EU already over the years... when our NHS is underfunded. She needs to step down and leave. She's a bloody awful PM. I hate this corrupt government. She's betraying what the people democratically voted for.

'Even no deal is better than this lousy deal that's been proposed.' Nigel Farage.

[Tooting Carmen]

She needs to step down and leave. She's a bloody awful PM. I hate this corrupt government. She's betraying what the people democratically voted for.

That I do agree with.

[Ayetooey]

Time to get rid of Theresa May, she's the worst and most useless prime minister, a wolf in sheeps clothing, a remainer trying to slow down the Brexit process. If the no confidence vote from the Tories doesn't get rid of her, she'll be gone once the she loses the parliament vote.

[Graham]

Any person in May's position was going to be sniped at from politicians who aren't brave enough to try it themselves.

There are no easy options.

[frankhammer]

Brexit could well lead to chaos, if there is no deal and no proper arrangements are made for trade and travel. The more people wake up to the destructive effects of leaving the EU, whether short-term or long-term, the better.

Every other nation survives well enough outside of the EU. They make their own arrangements and get on with business. Destructive? To the staus quo, possibly but it won't be the end for the UK. There will be changes , some possibly painful but they will adapt to the changes quickly enough.

Fortunately, the UK isn't surrounded by EU member states and can't be held hostage. It also has strong relationships with many other peoples including brother nations.

Brits need to learn to give others the finger and move on again.