A wise man (OK, it might have been Homer Simpson) once said that "people can come up with statistics to prove anything ... forty per cent of all people know that."

Two duelling poll-backed narratives have taken hold in the Canadian political commentary in recent weeks as the country heads into an election year.

The first narrative runs something like this:

The shine has come off Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the 2019 federal election approaches, but his Liberals remain the favourites to win re-election. The margin between the Liberals and Conservatives is relatively narrow — perhaps two to five percentage points — but his party holds leads where it counts in the battle for seats, particularly in Quebec. Boosting Trudeau's chances is the fact that he retains a wide, double-digit advantage over Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer on who Canadians prefer as their prime minister. That personal edge could prove decisive.



The second narrative looks a little like this:

Trudeau's popularity is collapsing at the least opportune moment for his party, with just 10 months to go before the next federal election. His approval ratings are plummeting and Scheer has surpassed the beleaguered prime minister as the man more Canadians want to see leading the country. The Conservatives are ahead on the question of which party people think would do a better job of governing Canada — including in Quebec — and Scheer is seen as the better person to handle a myriad of issues that could turn out to be next year's ballot box question.


The numbers exist to back up both of these narratives.

Canadians might be forgiven if the polls have confused them over the last few weeks. Forum Research put out a survey showing the Conservatives ahead by nine points. Nanos Research, which reports the results of its four-week rolling surveys weekly, showed significant shifts, with a six-point Liberal lead turning into a one-point Conservative edge and then back into a two-point Liberal advantage.

Campaign Research put the Tories up by two and then Ipsos/Global News put the Liberals ahead by five. The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) did not release voting intention numbers, but put Scheer ahead of Trudeau on Canadians' choice for prime minister by six points, a day after Nanos gave Trudeau the edge by 11 and two days after Campaign put the margin at 10 for Trudeau.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/gre...olls-1.4953867