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this is a comment from a catalan poster on an article about the catalan crisis in the financial times
"When you consider the financial and demographic situation of Catalonia this is sheer economic insanity.
All the banks are Spanish, even La Caixa (La Caixa has the bulk of its asset and deposit base outside of Catalonia). Separatism does not have a leg to stand on financially speaking. Catalonia has no capital to start it´s own banking system. There are even chest beating wealthy separatists walking on marches today with their bank accounts safely away from Catalonia (this is very typical Bourgeoisie Catalan behaviour). My Catalan family took everything out 2 years ago. There were queues of Catalans in Branches in Aragon and Madrid. That capital is not coming back.
The ECB only lends to Spanish banks. Lose your Spanish bank license and you have lost ECB access. With a poor credit rating you won´t get ECB access either. The ECB wants to get is money back on the sovereign debt it has funded. The ECB is not going to tolerate instability.
Generalitat the Catalonias Euro 60 bn debt pile is financed 75% now, Euro 60 bn yes. by the Central Governenment because nobody in the financial system wants to lend to the Generalitat, certainly not at the ridiculously low rate of 1% at which the FLA (the Madrid Government) lends to it. Without the FLA (i.e. Madrid), Generalitat would not be able to pay it´s wages within 6 weeks as they fall due.
Notes and Coins arrive into Catalan branches of Spanish banks from the rest of Spain (Casa de la Moneda y Timbre). Spanish government only would need to intercept deliveries of notes and coins and you would have an immediate localised Catalan bank run. Catalan depositors would have to get on the car, drive away from Catalonia to get cash in neighbouring regions. Slightly inconvenient.
The pensions hole in Catalonia is the largest of any Spanish region. Funnily enough, Madrid region has a pension surplus because of it´s younger workforce and economic growth.
As to businesses, you only need to look at the trade surplus to know who suffers more.
Then there is the not small issue of belonging to the EU, with France and Spain having a veto over the appearance of any new Country.
As a man of finance, I think separatism is sheer lunacy. Now, organising beautiful marches and gatherings yes I give them full credit for that. But you cannot eat marches, gatherings or yellow ribbons.
Then there is the bigger issue of half of Catalan residents opposing separatism. Here it is not money but feelings and the potential for civil strife within Catalonia. Here the separatists will say "we are a peaceful movement",... but what happens when the other half decides that the prefer to fight rather than speak. What do you do then, tell me? Northern Ireland x5. And many of those Catalans loyal to Spain feel as 2nd class citizens in Catalonia, do not trust the Catalan police or it´s educational system.
My two predictions are that there is no creation of a new country without
a) a very bloody period of civil strife
b) an exit from the Euro and a collapse of finances in Catalonia"
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En realidad la mayoría de las lenguas romances con la excepción del francés y el rumanos son parecidas. Aproposito, no le digas a Casillas que el castellano y el portugués son parecidos, porque debe lllevar un par de años en Portugal y todavía es incapaz de hacer ni siquiera una entrevista sencillita en portugués.
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A mini version of the third world war is currently being fought in the middle east. At times it is not even possible to know who is fighting against whom. The attempt to preserve the existing ones or establish new states results in thousands to hundreds of thousands of deaths. as far as the 'backward' middle east is concerned- this is the reality. but what is preventing the catalans,flemings,basques, scots from independence?
it's a mystery to me.
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