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The technology to embryo select for hair/eye colour is available right now, even if clinics are not currently offering this. You can also select for IQ, its currently possible and not even that expensive. https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection
How long before gene editing gives anyone's (including non Europeans - who don't even carry recessive genes for light traits) children whatever Hair/Eye Colour whatever they want? Maybe 10 years?
I am sure there will be a market for such technology in some Asian countries
Puts things into perspective for nordicists or obsessives.
Interesting stuff here from Gwern.net:
With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilization process to increase or decrease that trait. Extending the work of Shulman & Bostrom 2014/Hsu 2014, I consider the case of human intelligence using SNP-based genetic prediction, finding:
a meta-analysis of GCTA results indicates that SNPs can explain >33% of variance in current intelligence scores, and >44% with better-quality phenotype testing
-this sets an upper bound on the effectiveness of selection: a gain of 9 IQ points when selecting the top embryo out of 10
the best 2016 polygenic score could achieve a gain of ~3 IQ points when selecting out of 10
-the marginal cost of embryo selection (assuming IVF is already being done) is modest, at $1500 + $200 per embryo, with the sequencing cost projected to drop rapidly
-a model of the IVF process, incorporating number of extracted eggs, losses to abnormalities & vitrification & failed implantation & miscarriages from 2 real IVF patient populations, estimates feasible gains of 0.39 & 0.68 IQ points
-embryo selection is currently unprofitable (mean: -$358) in the USA under the lowest estimate of the value of an IQ point, but profitable under the highest (mean: $6230). The main constraints on selection profitability is the polygenic score; under the highest value, the NPV EVPI of a perfect SNP predictor is $24b and the EVSI per education/SNP sample is $71k [this may actually be worth doing from a financial perspective in terms of net gain!]
-under the worst-case estimate, selection can be made profitable with a better polygenic score, which would require n>237,300 using education phenotype data (and much less using fluid intelligence measures)
-selection can be made more effective by selecting on multiple phenotype traits: considering an example using 7 traits (IQ/height/BMI/diabetes/ADHD/bipolar/schizophrenia), there is a factor gain over IQ alone; the outperformance of multiple selection remains after adjusting for genetic correlations & polygenic scores and using a broader set of 16 traits.
What are your thoughts on such technology?
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