World economy to shrink in 2009; first time since 1945

[Lenny]

Former USSR GDP, 1973: $1.513 trillion
Former USSR GDP, 1985: $2.200 trillion [* - estimated - see below]
Former USSR GDP, 1990: $1.988 trillion (the first year honest outside observors could make true appraisals)
Former USSR GDP, 1996: $1.125 trillion
Former USSR GDP, 2002: $1.406 trillion
Former USSR GDP, 2009: $2.200 trillion [estimated]

(all figures in constant 1990-dollars adjusted for inflation - see earlier link for documentation).

I made the calculation for 2009 assuming an exUSSR general growth rate of 7% per year 2002-present, as Russia itself has had during that timeframe. Interestingly, it comes out to right around 2.2 trillion - i.e., the precise peak-figure we postulated for 1985...

It took them nearly 25 years to recover in raw GDP terms.

Our much-vaunted "Great Depression"... was a pittance in comparison.

[SwordoftheVistula]

Whatever the true 1985 figure is, we know it has to be over 2.0 as that was the 1990 figure (an honest figure confirmed by international observors), and we know that 1996 was 1.125, so it is definitely nearly a ~50% loss in GDP.

Your point about living standards is valid, (though 1990s-Russia was by far the lowest-living-standards "Europid"-peopled country in the world), because a large part of any economic base has nothing to do with consumer goods. Especially the USSR with its heavy-industry-mania.

Perhaps the large amount of resources directed towards the military prior to 1991 would explain that.

Would oil price fluctuation also cause that? Oil took a big dive in the 1990s as a result of the Gulf War.

[Lenny]

Perhaps the large amount of resources directed towards the military prior to 1991 would explain that.

The military and other non-vital industry certainly declined sharply. Though when it comes to domestic military production (not for export), it's a GDP-sponge anyway; not something that can drive growth or decline, but something that simply eats away at what GDP you derive from everywhere else.

Would oil price fluctuation also cause that? Oil took a big dive in the 1990s as a result of the Gulf War.

It's possible that it contributed a bit. The historical crude-oil-price record doesn't show oil nosediving in correlation with Russia's late-80s to mid-90s decline, though. (The five-year-long oil spike notwithstanding).



The real culprit was clearly the unsustainability of the ineffective communist model and the laughably-poor "Communist-Work-Ethic".

the laughably-poor "Communist-Work-Ethic"

Speaking of which, I think it's time to lighten up this thread--

• Three workers find themselves locked up, and they ask each other what they’re in for. The first man says: “I was always ten minutes late to work, so I was accused of sabotage.” The second man says: “I was always ten minutes early to work, so I was accused of espionage.” The third man says: “I always got to work on time, so I was accused of having a Western watch.”
• Q. “Why do the KGB operate in groups of three?” A. “One can read, one can write and one to keep an eye on the two intellectuals.”
• A man saves up his ruples and is finally able to buy a car in Soviet Russia. After he pays his money the he is told he will have his car in three years.
  “Three years!” he asks “What month?”
  “August”
  “August? What day in August?” He asks
  “The Second of August” is the reply
  “Morning or Afternoon?”
  “Afternoon. Why do you need to know?”
  “The plumber is coming in the morning.”
• Three men are talking at night in their barracks in a Siberian forced labor camp. By way of introduction, one man says, “I got 20 years for publishing samizdat, that’s why I’m here.” The second man says, “I got caught listening to BBC, that’s why I got 15 years. How about you ?”
  – he asks the third man. The third man replies, “I got 10 years, for absolutely nothing !”. The first man then hits him in the face. “Liar ! For nothing, they only give you 5 years !”.
• An American, a Czech, and a Soviet agreed to meet. The Czech was late.
  "Sorry for being so late," the Czech said, "I was waiting in the queue to buy some meat."
  "What is a queue?" the American asked.
  "What is meat?" the Soviet asked.