Balts or Celts: who would be victorious?

[Creoda]

Irish and Scots have added 4-5% EEF ancestry since the Bronze Age, and that's in spite of later Germanic admixture.

[1] "distance%=3.5819"

         Scotland_MBA

Yamnaya_Samara,50.8
Barcin_N,33.2
WHG,16


[1] "distance%=3.8765"

         IRL_BA

Yamnaya_Samara,54.4
Barcin_N,31.2
WHG,14.4

[1] "distance%=3.8174"

England_MBA

Yamnaya_Samara,51.4
Barcin_N,33
WHG,15.6

[1] "distance%=4.9934"

         Irish

Yamnaya_Samara,49.6
Barcin_N,36.8
WHG,13.6

[1] "distance%=4.8094"

         Scottish

Yamnaya_Samara,48.8
Barcin_N,37.4
WHG,13.8

There's no way the Celts that conquered the British Isles were very similar to modern British/Irish, unless Irish and Scots are predominantly descended from Iron Age Celtic invaders to this day, which I think is pretty unlikely, but I guess possible.

If they are hypothetically 50% Celtic descended, that would mean the Celtic invaders were at least 41-42% EEF. At 25% Celtic they would have been at least 44-45% EEF.

[1] "distance%=4.4315"

         CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany

Barcin_N,45.4
Yamnaya_Samara,35.8
WHG,18.8

I think the latter is probably most likely, and they were perhaps another 5-10% more Celtic before later Germanic influence.

[Token]

Irish and Scots have added 4-5% EEF ancestry since the Bronze Age, and that's in spite of later Germanic admixture.

[1] "distance%=3.5819"

         Scotland_MBA

Yamnaya_Samara,50.8
Barcin_N,33.2
WHG,16


[1] "distance%=3.8765"

         IRL_BA

Yamnaya_Samara,54.4
Barcin_N,31.2
WHG,14.4

[1] "distance%=3.8174"

England_MBA
Yamnaya_Samara,51.4
Barcin_N,33
WHG,15.6

[1] "distance%=4.9934"
Irish
Yamnaya_Samara,49.6
Barcin_N,36.8
WHG,13.6

[1] "distance%=4.8094"
Scottish

Yamnaya_Samara,48.8
Barcin_N,37.4
WHG,13.8

There's no way the Celts that conquered the British Isles were very similar to modern British/Irish, unless Irish and Scots are predominantly descended from Iron Age Celtic invaders to this day, which I think is pretty unlikely, but I guess possible.

If they are hypothetically 50% Celtic descended, that would mean the Celtic invaders were at least 41-42% EEF. At 25% Celtic they would have been at least 44-45% EEF.

[1] "distance%=4.4315"

         CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany

Barcin_N,45.4
Yamnaya_Samara,35.8
WHG,18.8

I think the latter is probably most likely, and they were perhaps another 5-10% more Celtic before later Germanic influence.

Modelling deep ancestry with G25 isn't a good idea, recent drift tends to skew the results. Formal admixture tests are more appropriate for that.
My more proximate models shows that it is perfectly possible that the Irish are ~45% descended from a British-like population hailing from Central Europe. There is no reason to believe that the Gaels were Hallstatt -like since they probably entered Ireland from Northern France and, in all likelihood, were already mixed with the local, French Beaker-descended population.

[Token]

double

[Creoda]

Modelling deep ancestry with G25 isn't a good idea, recent drift tends to skew the results. Formal admixture tests are more appropriate for that.
My more proximate models shows that it is perfectly possible that the Irish are ~45% descended from a British-like population hailing from Central Europe. There is no reason to believe that the Gaels were Hallstatt -like since they probably entered Ireland from Northern France and, in all likelihood, were already mixed with the local, French Beaker-descended population.

I think the Celtic admixture in Irish could potentially be anywhere from around 25-45% based on what I posted above, but I think it's more likely to be on the lower end. It doesn't make sense though that a 45% British-like Central European admixture could account for the southern shift of the Irish since the Bronze Age. They would have to be closer to Hallstatt people.

[Imperator Biff]

Some French beaker samples have come out relatively similar to modern British/Irish.
Ntm that one Celt from empuries who fits firmly within the Irish/Welsh cluster.