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Thread: Ireland's Population Was in Serious Decline Before the Vikings

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    I did this on the nMonte Runner. What populations are best to use?

    "sample": "Custom:AGUser_Grace",
    "fit": 2.2038,
    "Scotland_LBA": 93.33,
    "Nordic_BA": 6.67,

    "sample": "Norwegian:Average",
    "fit": 2.1246,
    "Scotland_LBA": 85,
    "Nordic_BA": 15,
    Quote Originally Posted by Creoda View Post
    My father's data compared to these

    [1] "distance%=2.3168"

    CreodaDad_scaled

    Scotland_LBA,59.8
    SWE_IA,40.2

    [1] "distance%=2.7123"

    CreodaDad_scaled

    Scotland_LBA,94.2
    England_Saxon,5.8 (I0773)

    [1] "distance%=2.4471"

    CreodaDad_scaled

    Scotland_LBA,51.2
    DEU_MA,48.8

    Very inconsistent.
    Use the original nMonte over nMonte3 if you aren't already, nMonte3 tries to remove outlying coordinates within the average and gives results +/- 30% different give or take each run. Completely inconsistent and useless, while nMonte1 gives pretty much the same results each run within 1-3%. Better to just use individual coords in nMonte1 rather than averages and let R remove outliers rather than nMonte, if you want what nMonte3 was supposed to be able to do(removing outliers from averages, finding extra specific genetic drift that may only be in some individuals). Shame nMonte runner removed the option of using nMonte1, for free users anyway.

    England_IA had too much mainland Celt(clustered south of English), the Anglo-Saxon samples were already mixed except 2.

    This is my go-to model for British Islanders and NW Euros. DEU_MA is split up into individual coords because Davidski actually left in 2 outliers in the average, one Finnish/Balt admixed, one central Euro, and using the average inflates insular British or local Beaker by a lot everywhere. Only natives from Sigtuna used. Honestly, every pop should use the individual coordinates rather than averaged, people are just too scared of overfitting, for no reason. The 4 Bavarian_Beaker(and the Swiss Beaker average, the Bavarian beaker average has too many northern beakers) are what I think to be mainland Celts and the main population around the Alps pre-Germanic/Roman migrations, nMonte prefers them over Hallstatt(only 2 samples which both clustered very weirdly, one clustering with no moderns way west of France, one supposedly had some Scythian, probably population dead ends) for nearly every population, but I'll also include a model without them because it is pretty speculative, although I'm pretty confident that's the case.

    [1] "distance%=1.1779"

    Irish

    Scotland_LBA,59.3
    DEU_MA:STR_316,10.1
    DEU_MA:NW_255,7
    Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I5520,6.9
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_urm161,4.8
    DEU_MA:STR_480,4.4
    Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I3594,3.3
    DEU_MA:AED_106,2.2
    DEU_MA:ALH_3,2
    ITA_Collegno_MA_o1,0
    Russian_Orel,0
    DEU_MA:AED_249,0
    DEU_MA:ALH_1,0
    DEU_MA:ALH_10,0
    DEU_MA:STR_486,0
    SWE_IA,0
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_kls001,0
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_stg021,0
    CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany,0
    Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I3590,0
    Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I5017,0
    Iberia_Central_BA,0
    Bell_Beaker_CHE,0
    So, 59.3% insular Brit, 32.5% Germanic(22-25% is closer to what I thought and got using worse models, but it definitely isn't 5.6/6.6 like those first two models), 10.2% mainland Celt.

    [1] "distance%=1.2916"

    Irish

    Scotland_LBA,63.6
    DEU_MA:STR_480,10.8
    DEU_MA:NW_255,6.8
    DEU_MA:STR_316,5.3
    CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany,4.5
    DEU_MA:ALH_3,3.1
    DEU_MA:AED_106,2.7
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_urm161,2.2
    ITA_Collegno_MA_o1,1
    Russian_Orel,0
    DEU_MA:AED_249,0
    DEU_MA:ALH_1,0
    DEU_MA:ALH_10,0
    DEU_MA:STR_486,0
    SWE_IA,0
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_kls001,0
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_stg021,0
    63.6% Brit, 30.9% Germanic, 4.5% mainland Celt, 1% Roman.



    As for this whole British admixture in Norway thing, keep in mind there's 2 Norwegian samples in the database all geneticists have access to. One from West Norway, in Bergen, the other from Oslo. We have absolutely no idea how large the sample sizes of each are, or which they even used. I know on G25 the Norwegian sample is both averaged, but the sample from Bergen could have an N of like 250 and the one from Oslo 25, we just don't know. This British signal does show up in G25, and it's not really surprising, but you can't really know the % for the whole country.

    [1] "distance%=1.4679"

    Norwegian

    Scotland_LBA,34.3
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_urm161,23.3
    DEU_MA:STR_480,11.7
    DEU_MA:ALH_10,10.7
    DEU_MA:ALH_3,7.2
    DEU_MA:STR_316,7
    CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany,2.4
    DEU_MA:AED_106,1.8
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_kls001,1.6
    ITA_Collegno_MA_o1,0
    Russian_Orel,0
    DEU_MA:AED_249,0
    DEU_MA:ALH_1,0
    DEU_MA:NW_255,0
    DEU_MA:STR_486,0
    SWE_IA,0
    SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna:vik_stg021,0
    34.3% insular British, 2.4% mainland Celt, 63.5% Germanic.

    People have been speculating Bergen is extremely British derived for a long time now to explain why Bergen is so dark, and just look at this hair pigmentation map by Swedish anthropologist Bertil Lundman:

    The Guanche skulls as a whole are unlike those of modern European Mediterraneans, and resemble northern European series most closely, especially those in which a brachycephalic element is present, as in Burgundian and Alemanni series.
    divided them into clearly differentiated types, which include a Mediterranean, a Nordic, a "Guanche," and an Alpine. The "Guanche" accounts for 50 per cent of the whole on the four islands of Teneriffe, Gomera, Gran Canaria, and Hierro; the Nordic for 31 per cent, the Mediterranean for 13 per cent, and the Alpine
    oldschool anthropology

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    New study: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/ea...61116.full.pdf

    "We estimate that Norwegian (as well as Danish/Swedish) ancestry is also markedly low in Ireland (average 7%) compared with previous estimates (8, 9) (we explore this further in Discussion)." - so just like I wrote before in this thread.

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    From the new study, about County Donegal:

    "The researchers were also able to analyse the county of Donegal in more detail than before, revealing it as the most genetically isolated region of Ireland observed to date. This isolation shows little evidence of the migrations that have impacted the rest of Ulster."

    ^^^
    Here is an Irish with 100% ancestry from County Donegal in K36 Similtude map, very isolated indeed (no similarities over 85 except for Irish average itself):



    ^^^
    And for comparison Irish 100% from County Donegal in Eurogenes K15:

    Admix Results (sorted):

    # Population Percent
    1 North_Sea 36.44
    2 Atlantic 35.98
    3 Eastern_Euro 9.61
    4 Baltic 7.79
    5 West_Med 7.19
    6 West_Asian 2.34
    7 Amerindian 0.61
    8 South_Asian 0.04

    Single Population Sharing:

    # Population (source) Distance
    1 West_Scottish 5.52
    2 Irish 5.78

    3 Southeast_English 6.35
    4 Orcadian 6.97
    5 Southwest_English 7.69
    6 Danish 8.21
    7 North_Dutch 8.87
    8 North_German 9.92
    9 South_Dutch 11.49
    10 West_Norwegian 12.02
    11 Norwegian 12.23
    12 Swedish 13.77
    13 West_German 14.34
    14 French 15.14
    15 North_Swedish 15.91
    16 East_German 18.17
    17 Southwest_Finnish 19.77
    18 Spanish_Cataluna 20.75
    19 Austrian 21.18
    20 Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon 21.91

    Mixed Mode Population Sharing:

    # Primary Population (source) Secondary Population (source) Distance
    1 88.9% West_Scottish + 11.1% French_Basque @ 4.55
    2 90.7% Irish + 9.3% French_Basque @ 5.18
    3 93.8% West_Scottish + 6.2% Spanish_Aragon @ 5.31
    4 84.7% Orcadian + 15.3% French_Basque @ 5.31
    5 94.4% West_Scottish + 5.6% Southwest_French @ 5.37
    6 95% West_Scottish + 5% Spanish_Castilla_La_Mancha @ 5.39
    7 95.1% West_Scottish + 4.9% Spanish_Cantabria @ 5.41
    8 95.7% West_Scottish + 4.3% Spanish_Valencia @ 5.43
    9 97% West_Scottish + 3% Spanish_Andalucia @ 5.47
    10 97.6% West_Scottish + 2.4% Spanish_Murcia @ 5.5
    11 98% West_Scottish + 2% Spanish_Cataluna @ 5.51
    12 98.2% West_Scottish + 1.8% Spanish_Castilla_Y_Leon @ 5.51
    13 98.7% West_Scottish + 1.3% Spanish_Extremadura @ 5.51
    14 100% West_Scottish + 0% Abhkasian @ 5.52
    15 100% West_Scottish + 0% Adygei @ 5.52
    16 100% West_Scottish + 0% Afghan_Hazara @ 5.52
    17 100% West_Scottish + 0% Afghan_Pashtun @ 5.52
    18 100% West_Scottish + 0% Afghan_Tadjik @ 5.52
    19 100% West_Scottish + 0% Afghan_Turkmen @ 5.52
    20 100% West_Scottish + 0% Afghan_Uzbeki @ 5.52

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    D'éirigh níos fearr le muintir na hÉireann nuair a eagraíodh iad.

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    I think the most drastic was from The Great Famine until the 60s. They went from 8,5 million to 2,5 million.
    "Why should I fear death? If I am, death is not. If death is, I am not"
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    Quote Originally Posted by XenophobicPrussian View Post
    Use the original nMonte over nMonte3 if you aren't already, nMonte3 tries to remove outlying coordinates within the average and gives results +/- 30% different give or take each run. Completely inconsistent and useless, while nMonte1 gives pretty much the same results each run within 1-3%. Better to just use individual coords in nMonte1 rather than averages and let R remove outliers rather than nMonte, if you want what nMonte3 was supposed to be able to do(removing outliers from averages, finding extra specific genetic drift that may only be in some individuals). Shame nMonte runner removed the option of using nMonte1, for free users anyway.

    England_IA had too much mainland Celt(clustered south of English), the Anglo-Saxon samples were already mixed except 2.

    This is my go-to model for British Islanders and NW Euros. DEU_MA is split up into individual coords because Davidski actually left in 2 outliers in the average, one Finnish/Balt admixed, one central Euro, and using the average inflates insular British or local Beaker by a lot everywhere. Only natives from Sigtuna used. Honestly, every pop should use the individual coordinates rather than averaged, people are just too scared of overfitting, for no reason. The 4 Bavarian_Beaker(and the Swiss Beaker average, the Bavarian beaker average has too many northern beakers) are what I think to be mainland Celts and the main population around the Alps pre-Germanic/Roman migrations, nMonte prefers them over Hallstatt(only 2 samples which both clustered very weirdly, one clustering with no moderns way west of France, one supposedly had some Scythian, probably population dead ends) for nearly every population, but I'll also include a model without them because it is pretty speculative, although I'm pretty confident that's the case.



    So, 59.3% insular Brit, 32.5% Germanic(22-25% is closer to what I thought and got using worse models, but it definitely isn't 5.6/6.6 like those first two models), 10.2% mainland Celt.


    63.6% Brit, 30.9% Germanic, 4.5% mainland Celt, 1% Roman.



    As for this whole British admixture in Norway thing, keep in mind there's 2 Norwegian samples in the database all geneticists have access to. One from West Norway, in Bergen, the other from Oslo. We have absolutely no idea how large the sample sizes of each are, or which they even used. I know on G25 the Norwegian sample is both averaged, but the sample from Bergen could have an N of like 250 and the one from Oslo 25, we just don't know. This British signal does show up in G25, and it's not really surprising, but you can't really know the % for the whole country.


    34.3% insular British, 2.4% mainland Celt, 63.5% Germanic.

    People have been speculating Bergen is extremely British derived for a long time now to explain why Bergen is so dark, and just look at this hair pigmentation map by Swedish anthropologist Bertil Lundman:

    How come western Norway is 80-85% blond in one spot?
    "Why should I fear death? If I am, death is not. If death is, I am not"
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    Seeing as my mom consistently gets mistaken as Scandinavian on G25, I want to formerly speak out against Viking rape. It was wrong. The sanctity of Irish women > Vikings

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    Quote Originally Posted by XenophobicPrussian View Post
    Use the original nMonte over nMonte3 if you aren't already, nMonte3 tries to remove outlying coordinates within the average and gives results +/- 30% different give or take each run. Completely inconsistent and useless, while nMonte1 gives pretty much the same results each run within 1-3%. Better to just use individual coords in nMonte1 rather than averages and let R remove outliers rather than nMonte, if you want what nMonte3 was supposed to be able to do(removing outliers from averages, finding extra specific genetic drift that may only be in some individuals). Shame nMonte runner removed the option of using nMonte1, for free users anyway.

    England_IA had too much mainland Celt(clustered south of English), the Anglo-Saxon samples were already mixed except 2.

    This is my go-to model for British Islanders and NW Euros. DEU_MA is split up into individual coords because Davidski actually left in 2 outliers in the average, one Finnish/Balt admixed, one central Euro, and using the average inflates insular British or local Beaker by a lot everywhere. Only natives from Sigtuna used. Honestly, every pop should use the individual coordinates rather than averaged, people are just too scared of overfitting, for no reason. The 4 Bavarian_Beaker(and the Swiss Beaker average, the Bavarian beaker average has too many northern beakers) are what I think to be mainland Celts and the main population around the Alps pre-Germanic/Roman migrations, nMonte prefers them over Hallstatt(only 2 samples which both clustered very weirdly, one clustering with no moderns way west of France, one supposedly had some Scythian, probably population dead ends) for nearly every population, but I'll also include a model without them because it is pretty speculative, although I'm pretty confident that's the case.



    So, 59.3% insular Brit, 32.5% Germanic(22-25% is closer to what I thought and got using worse models, but it definitely isn't 5.6/6.6 like those first two models), 10.2% mainland Celt.


    63.6% Brit, 30.9% Germanic, 4.5% mainland Celt, 1% Roman.



    As for this whole British admixture in Norway thing, keep in mind there's 2 Norwegian samples in the database all geneticists have access to. One from West Norway, in Bergen, the other from Oslo. We have absolutely no idea how large the sample sizes of each are, or which they even used. I know on G25 the Norwegian sample is both averaged, but the sample from Bergen could have an N of like 250 and the one from Oslo 25, we just don't know. This British signal does show up in G25, and it's not really surprising, but you can't really know the % for the whole country.


    34.3% insular British, 2.4% mainland Celt, 63.5% Germanic.

    People have been speculating Bergen is extremely British derived for a long time now to explain why Bergen is so dark, and just look at this hair pigmentation map by Swedish anthropologist Bertil Lundman:

    Yeah, you are right, mixing and matching populations averages and individual samples is the best method but tedious. Datasheets have changed somewhat since then so I did the best I could do in Vahaduo , I should have just used R in Linux , but I don't feel like setting it up right now. I'm 36% native Brit and about half Germanic. So we mainland Scots are intermediary between the English and 'Irish' . I bet the English score like about 20 % LBA native Brit. I'm not sure if Bavarian Bell Beaker is 'Germanic' at that point in history or not , BTW. This explains why I score high Norwegian on modern population scores in G25 because I'm 36% Scotland LBA and Norwegians are 34.3%.



    Target: Kevin_scaled
    Distance: 2.6648% / 0.02664818
    50.6 DEU_MA
    36.0 Scotland_LBA
    9.8 Bell_Beaker_Bavaria
    3.6 Iberia_Central_BA

    Target: Kevin_scaled
    Distance: 2.6648% / 0.02664818
    36.0 Scotland_LBA
    36.0 DEU_MA:ALH_1
    14.6 DEU_MA:AED_106
    9.8 Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I5017
    3.6 Iberia_Central_BA

    Distance to: Kevin_scaled
    0.03275334 Scotland_LBA
    0.03412486 DEU_MA:ALH_1
    0.04496738 SWE_Viking_Age_Sigtuna
    0.04944617 DEU_MA:AED_106
    0.04957803 DEU_MA:STR_480
    0.05011800 DEU_MA:ALH_3
    0.05079963 SWE_IA
    0.05277013 DEU_MA:STR_316
    0.05277044 DEU_MA:ALH_10
    0.05485317 CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany
    0.05585750 DEU_MA:NW_255
    0.06046169 Bell_Beaker_CHE
    0.06564933 Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I5520
    0.06791781 Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I3590
    0.08000777 Bell_Beaker_Bavaria:I5017
    0.10343110 Iberia_Central_BA
    0.15403278 ITA_Collegno_MA_o1f
    Last edited by JamesBond007; 05-22-2020 at 05:37 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Daco Celtic View Post
    Seeing as my mom consistently gets mistaken as Scandinavian on G25, I want to formerly speak out against Viking rape. It was wrong. The sanctity of Irish women > Vikings
    You have yet to master the ways of G25 XenophobicPrussian has mastered it. G25 , without mixing and matching datasheets, would say in modern times I'm like mostly Norwegian and closely related to the Dutch but in reality the Norwegians and Scots probably have similar Scotland_LBA native Brit levels at least certain clusters of Scots like the one I'm part of e.g. mainland Scots.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesBond007 View Post
    You have yet to master the ways of G25 XenophobicPrussian has mastered it.
    G25 makes my mom look too Scandinavian. G25 is fun but lets not act like it's the Holy Grail.

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