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Thread: Ireland's Population Was in Serious Decline Before the Vikings

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    These heatmaps show autosomal data for Viking Age DNA samples (represented by black dots), not for modern populations.



    But at very low frequency. People move around, so just because there is some L21 in Romania, doesn't mean it isn't British.
    Yes I'm aware of that. That's why I mentioned that the ones in Ireland were Norse but because the ones in Orkney are of mostly local origin you make the conclusion that the Norwegians have British/Irish admixture from this but draw different conclusions for Ireland even though the Vikings there were Norse. It just sounds a bit like jumping to conclusions without enough information. There isn't even a good study done on Norwegians and as we both agree these studies should now be done looking at ancient genomes and not using modern populations.

    Just because ydna is large in an area doesn't mean it originated there. I'm absolutely certain that L21 didn't orginate in Britain. It is too old and too widespread. Mark my words. There's a study coming out on France next year and I bet there will be plenty of L21.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    but because the ones in Orkney are of mostly local origin you make the conclusion that the Norwegians have British/Irish admixture from this
    My conclusion was also based on modern people from Orkney - modern inhabitants of Orkney are mostly British/Irish genetically, but they speak a Norse language:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norn_language

    Not only Orcadians, but even Shetlanders are autosomally mostly British/Irish (but with a bit higher Norse admixture than Orcadians), so also Vikings just culturally.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    My conclusion was also based on modern people from Orkney - modern inhabitants of Orkney are also mostly British/Irish genetically, but they speak a Norse language:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norn_language
    Yes but they definitely have some Norse ancestry. I'm sure you would agree?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    It depends, the Bronze Age was a very long time period, and there were some genetic changes in Britain during the Bronze Age.

    Late Bronze Age samples are less northern - with more of Neolithic Farmer ancestry - than Early Bronze Age samples.

    This means that either there was another wave of migration from the continent, or pockets of surviving Neolithic Britons mixed back in and were assimilated which caused a small resurgence of Stonehenge-era ancestry (just like there had been a small resurgence of WHG ancestry in Middle Neolithic Europe before that).



    Norwegians have a lot of R1b-L21 haplogrup which is a marker that most likely emerged in Britain during Bell Beaker times.

    There are no any ancient R1b-L21 samples from Scandinavia, so all L21 in Scandinavia is probably the result of immigration into Scandinavia from elsewhere after the end of the Bell Beaker Era.

    The first man with L21 mutation was probably born in Britain and all of the oldest L21 samples known to date are from British Beakers.

    Even if the first L21 man was born on the continent, it had to be somewhere around Belgium or Northern France - surely not in Scandinavia.
    Could come with the Viking mixing of locals, perhaps some men were assimilated and they or their ancestors went back to Norway?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norse-Gaels

    Would need to see the TMRCA of any L21 clades in Norwegians to make a better judgement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    Yes but they definitely have some Norse ancestry. I'm sure you would agree?
    Yes but the point is they are mostly British and if such people migrated to Norway, they caused a genetic change (British admixture) without any visible cultural change.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    but draw different conclusions for Ireland even though the Vikings there were Norse.
    But how many Vikings were there in Ireland? I said they were not numerous enough to have such impact on Irish DNA. Low estimates close to 5% are more probable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    Looking at Bronze Age genomes from Ireland/Britain shows they were very northern. Logic tells me that they have a lot of similarity from this.
    Late Bronze Age Britons (unlike Early Bronze Age ones) never score "North German" or "Scandinavian" as their top populations in single pop. approximation.

    So by the time of Late Bronze Age / Early Iron Age, a British-specific local gene pool formed in the Isles, and it it can be distinguished from other NW Euros.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    Yes but the point is they are mostly British and if such people migrated to Norway, they caused a genetic change (British admixture) without any visible cultural change.



    But how many Vikings were there in Ireland? I said they were not numerous enough to have such impact on Irish DNA. Low estimates close to 5% are more probable.
    I'll wait for more dna studies. I don't know why you're so sure of British admixture in Norwegians and yet dismiss Norwegian admixture in Irish/British using the same methods? We know there was Vikings in both Britain and Ireland. Yet you are saying the admixture went the other way. I really don't know how you can come to that conclusion without a proper study? I haven't even seen a good study done on Norway. I just post what the studies say and take them at face value. I mean they are qualified geneticists that publish these studies and Lara Cassidy was involved in the Insular Celtic paper and she is the one who has published the study using ancient genomes (general public doesn't have access to it yet). Both her and Prof Dan Bradley were involved in both the Rathlin paper and the Insular Celtic paper. They have access to these genomes so I do think they have all this information so I think they already know this information.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    I don't know why you're so sure of British admixture in Norwegians and yet dismiss Norwegian admixture in Irish/British using the same methods?
    I don't dismiss is, I just said Norway has more of British admixture than the other way around.

    British admixture in Norway is estimated at 12% to 25%, Norwegian in Ireland at 5% to 20%.

    I haven't tried to check yet which figure (25% or 12%) is closer to the truth for Norway, but for Ireland IMO no more than 15%, and probably 5-10%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    I don't dismiss is, I just said Norway has more of British admixture than the other way around.

    British admixture in Norway is estimated at 12% to 25%, Norwegian in Ireland at 5% to 20%.

    I don't know which figure (25% or 12%) is closer to the truth for Norway, but for Ireland IMO no more than 15%, and probably 5-10%.
    The admixture in Ireland was estimated at 20% and you can see this in the bar graphs from the Irish DNA Atlas. I've never seen the percentage for admixture in Norway. Can you link where you are getting that from?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    Yet you are saying the admixture went the other way. I really don't know how you can come to that conclusion without a proper study?
    I don't understand what you mean?

    There is a proper study and I just quoted what it says (but I suspected this before, and now this study confirms what I suspected):

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703405v1

    ^^^ Exact quote from the study:

    "The genetic impacts are stronger in the other direction [from Britain/Ireland to Scandinavia]. The ‘British-like’ populations of Orkney became ‘Scandinavian’ culturally, whilst other British populations found themselves in Iceland and Norway, and beyond. Present-day Norwegians vary between 12 and 25% in their ‘British-like’ ancestry"

    Quote Originally Posted by Grace O'Malley View Post
    The admixture in Ireland was estimated at 20% and you can see this in the bar graphs from the Irish DNA Atlas.
    The Irish DNA Atlas estimated it at between 5% and 20%, not "exactly 20%".

    And the high estimate (20%) was under assumption that Norwegians are 0% British-Irish, and this assumption has been proven wrong by the new study.

    So the high estimate cannot be correct. My guess is ca. 10% is the true amount.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Litvinski View Post
    I don't understand what you mean?

    There is a proper study and I just quoted what it says (but I suspected this before, and now this study confirms what I suspected):

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/703405v1

    ^^^ Exact quote from the study:

    "(...) The genetic impacts are stronger in the other direction [from Britain/Ireland to Scandinavia]. The ‘British-like’ populations of Orkney became ‘Scandinavian’ culturally, whilst other British populations found themselves in Iceland and Norway, and beyond. Present-day Norwegians vary between 12 and 25% in their ‘British-like’ ancestry (...)"
    Thanks. It's seems odd that there is so much British in Norwegians and so much Norse in Irish. I think the only way to make sense of this is to look at genomes from all periods and compare. All this similarity could be due to Bronze Age populations or it could be due to Viking times but only a proper study using ancient genomes can have any hope of answering this.

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