Celts = SW French all but now confirmed(MBA Bavarians)

[Peterski]

They are legit, but maybe they got invaded and replaced by Basque-like Celts during the next 300 years?

This is a possibility.

Just wondering why they changed from French-South Dutch (with one leaning to Galicia) into Catalan-like?

Or maybe one sample is not enough to judge. After all 1 of 7 samples from 1800 BC was also south-shifted.

[Calpurnius]

Lech_MBA low quality singleton is from 1500 BC, Roman legionary FN2 is from 400 AD.

That is two thousand years of difference.

For comparison AITI samples (labelled as EBA but the youngest of all EBA) are from 1800 BC - just 300 years before MBA sample.

Why did genetic landscape change dramatically during those 300 years but later remained unchanged for the next 2000 years?

it's a far fetched comparison indeed, though at the same time perhaps, after all, the era of large scale movements was coming to an end and the populations were beginning to stabilize in term of genetic profile, kind of like those Roman era samples from Empuries in Spain being almost genetically the same as the Mycenaean Greek samples from ~1300BC
I wouldn't talk of a "dramatic" change either, there's an even further increase in farmer ancestry but that seems about it

[Peterski]

Based on Eurogenes K36 admixtures, seven Lech Valley samples dated to 1800 BC are closest to... average modern Frenchman:

[1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCE%"
1. FR_Average (people with mixed ancestry from various regions of France)
0.4532229
2. FR_Pays-de-la-Loire
0.5981313
3. FR_Grand-Est
0.7445683
4. FR_Auvergne
0.7640537
5. DE_Bavaria
0.8144164
(...)

[Peterski]

K36 Similarity Map for Lech Valley samples dated to 1800-1750 BCE, suggested by XPrussian:

Highest similarity is to Paris (represented here by Frenchmen with regionally mixed ancestry):



So most similar to average Frenchman...

[Smaug]

More like Jacques Cousteau, no?

Anyway, interesting information, it seems early Etruscans were also Basque-like. There was a much bigger genetically Basque continuum in Europe in the past.

The Vasconic Substratum Hypothesis.

[Peterski]

Davidski has sent me their coordinates in his Celtic vs Germanic PCA.

Six out of seven Lech 1800-1750 BC samples plot on the "Celtic side":

Only one odd outlier (AITI_50) plots in the area of Orkney Islands? (this AITI_50 is also the lowest coverage of all 7 samples, but still pretty good):



^^^
Opinions?

AITI_50 is the only one that plots to the left, but it is also the one with the lowest coverage (on GEDmatch fewer SNPs than the other six samples).

====

Edit:

Based on K36 this AITI_50 also looks like some Norwegian-Irish/Scottish mix or intermediate.

Was there anything special about this individual and grave, compared to the other six guys?

[Peterski]

New Similarity Map, after removing AITI_50 (the most northern-shifted outlier):

Even more similar to Central French than before, but less similar to Germans:



And new closest distances:

[1] "1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCE%"
1. FR_Average
0.4007181
2. FR_Pays-de-la-Loire
0.5048554
3. FR_Auvergne
0.6060561
4. FR_Rhone-Alpes
0.7618661
5. FR_Occitanie
0.7937298
6. FR_Grand-Est
0.8520775
(...)

[Creoda]

Davidski has sent me their coordinates in his Celtic vs Germanic PCA.

Six out of seven Lech 1800-1750 BC samples plot on the "Celtic side":

Only one odd outlier (AITI_50) plots in the area of Orkney Islands? (this AITI_50 is also the lowest coverage of all 7 samples, but still pretty good):



^^^
Opinions?

AITI_50 is the only one that plots to the left, but it is also the one with the lowest coverage (on GEDmatch fewer SNPs than the other six samples).

====

Edit:

Based on K36 this AITI_50 also looks like some Norwegian-Irish/Scottish mix or intermediate.

Was there anything special about this individual and grave, compared to the other six guys?

Is Davidski going to put these on G25?

[TheOldNorth]

But the Hallstatt, La Tène theory is outdated and old, if you want to talk about Celtic ethnogenisis then you need to talk about the Atlantic Bronze Age trading culture and the Bell Beakers

[XenophobicPrussian]

K36 Similarity Map for Lech Valley samples dated to 1800-1750 BCE, suggested by XPrussian:

Highest similarity is to Paris (represented here by Frenchmen with regionally mixed ancestry):



So most similar to average Frenchman...

Davidski has sent me their coordinates in his Celtic vs Germanic PCA.

Six out of seven Lech 1800-1750 BC samples plot on the "Celtic side":

Only one odd outlier (AITI_50) plots in the area of Orkney Islands? (this AITI_50 is also the lowest coverage of all 7 samples, but still pretty good):



^^^
Opinions?

AITI_50 is the only one that plots to the left, but it is also the one with the lowest coverage (on GEDmatch fewer SNPs than the other six samples).

====

Edit:

Based on K36 this AITI_50 also looks like some Norwegian-Irish/Scottish mix or intermediate.

Was there anything special about this individual and grave, compared to the other six guys?

My dude, you are putting way too much weight on K36. It focuses on extremely minor modern ethnic group genetic drift(that's why there's so many Ks), and for example Basques and Finns are basically treated like completely different races. It is not useful for ancient samples maybe other than IA+ or medieval+.

New Similarity Map, after removing AITI_50 (the most northern-shifted outlier):

Even more similar to Central French than before, but less similar to Germans:

Can you PM me or post here the K15 result of each of these AETI samples? Also the high coverage MBA ones too would be nice. I was gunna get them myself but forgot my GEDMatch account, haven't used it for ancient samples in awhile. I'll plot them on K15 afterwards, will also seperate AETI samples from MBA and seperate AETI 50 as well.

As for if there was anything special about 50, nothing special about him other than he was male, had no relatives in the burial(some did). Apperantly the AETI site was one of the richer sites, and had a trade network ranging from NW Switzerland to Bohemia. They also note contemporary Unetice culture in Bohemia, who they traded with, was much richer, but the wealth was more spread out in the Bavarian sites. Also from the EBA to MBA there was actually a shift in the culture, MBA was much poorer with far fewer grave goods and metal goods than the EBA.

This is pretty cool, one of the burials had a whole family together, and it was one of the higher status families with a lot of valuable grave goods. A mother, AETI 87, and her three sons, 86, 119, 120(also one more I believe based on where he's buried, AETI88, but no genome, not even a gender listed, but also had grave goods), all being some with the most grave goods. What's interesting is, going solely based on the steppe/EEF ratios on page 38 of supp. data, AETI 87 was one of the Iberian ones(one of the most southern shifted of all samples, only AETI95 was more southern shifted), and all of her sons were much more steppe shifted, so much so you would need a paternal part like AETI 50 to get them where they are. So we're pretty much looking at a mixed race family right there, and the mother was most likely a local because her and her sons' mtDNA was U4a1a, which peaks in Germany, Poland, Scandinavia. 119 was only a sub-adult so it's pretty obvious the father was a pretty important figure. Very cool stuff.

Whoever was the husband of AETI_35 was likely the most high status and important person, that was one of the richest graves in the whole region. Potential candiates are 36, 50, 33 based on the closest males buried, but 36 was the only one with high status grave goods out of all of them. I doubt he was buried though, because 48 people were cremated according to the paper while 65 were buried in this site, and given this was still pretty early in post-IE Europe it was most likely the elites being cremated.

As for no Slavic admixture in S. Germans, well they definitely score it according to K36 runner, for whatever that's worth. Even Swiss Germans score around 2% on G25, Austrians are 27-30% Slavic, Tyrolians 6%, not like people in the Alps can't move around. Only West Germans/Dutch/Flemish score no Slavic.

Also, it isn't one lone SW French/Iberian sample, but literally 6 out of 8 of all the latest samples, whether they're low coverage or not. The population didn't change, Iberian-like people were already being buried in the oldest Beaker burials, the caste system/mating patterns and burial patterns did. It's actually very unlikely Iberian-like people could've survived without mixing from the Bell Beaker and even CW period to 1500 BC, just like pure Dutch beakers didn't survive unadmixed to 1500 BC. Some northern shifted samples yes, but not pure Dutch beaker like you have in the earliest Bavarian beakers. You have to remember people actually being buried in organized burials/cemeteries are already some of the more high-status individuals in society, the peasant was thrown into a ditch, bodies not positioned, etc. Early Europe IE societies easily could've been like Indian society with their caste system, extremely genetically different people pretty much living side by side(until it slowly disappears because humans will mix no matter what, or rapidly gets extinguished like in modern India), even as late as when these samples are from. We have no idea if these central French-like samples were the majority of the population, is what I'm saying, and even if they were on average central French with a few more northern and southern outliers, my prediction was even more right because that's what I first called, and it has little to no difference in the implications whether Celts were central French or SW French/Iberian like, point is they aren't British Isles-like and much more southern shifted than modern S. Germans.