Poland’s PiS wins absolute majority in parliamentary vote: exit polls

[Mingle]

Despite the victory, the ruling Law and Justice party wasn’t thrilled with the outcome.

WARSAW — Poland's nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party easily won Sunday's parliamentary election, taking 43.6 percent of the vote — enough for an absolute parliamentary majority, according exit polls released after voting ended at 9 p.m.

That was far ahead of the main opposition party, Civic Coalition, which took 27.4 percent. Further behind was the Left, a grouping of left-wing parties, with 11.9 percent, the conservative Polish Coalition with 9.6 percent, and the right-wing Confederation party with 6.4 percent.

According to an estimated seat distribution in the 460-member Sejm lower house of parliament, PiS would take 239 seats — enough for an absolute majority. The Civic Coalition would get 130, the Left 43, the Polish Coalition 34 and Confederation 13 seats. The German minority has one seat.

If that result holds when the votes are counted — with final results expected by Tuesday — PiS would have a similar hold on power that it has enjoyed over the previous four years, when it had 240 seats.

With that majority, PiS was able to take control of the country in 2015, pushing through deep reforms of the court system that occasionally violated the constitution and set off an ongoing fight with the European Commission. It also turned state television and radio into propaganda arms of the ruling party, replaced most of the top jobs in state-controlled companies, and was able to rush legislation through parliament with very little effective resistance from the opposition.

In recent months, PiS has tried to ease the conflict with Brussels. The party supported Ursula von der Leyen as Commission president, and was thrilled that Frans Timmermans will be shifted away from enforcing the EU’s democratic principles to being in charge of the European Green Deal in the new Commission.

During the campaign, Jarosław Kaczyński, the party's leader and the country's de facto ruler, rejoiced that Janusz Wojciechowski will be the new agriculture commissioner, calling it one of the most important posts in the Commission and one with key meaning for Poland.

Warsaw wants to strengthen its position during the ongoing negotiations over the EU’s future budget, fearing a dramatic cut in the funds currently flowing from Brussels.

Despite winning a second term in office, the tone at PiS's party headquarters in downtown Warsaw was far from euphoric.

Kaczyński complained about "this huge front against us" and lamented that there were still many voters who don't support PiS.

"We received a lot, but we deserve more," he said as party supporters chanted his name. "This means an obligation for us, an obligation for more work, more ideas, looking at the groups that didn't support us. We'll have to consider a lot of things."

He came back to the stage after a few minutes to again bask in the cheers and complained that there were some voters who felt that the opposition would do a better job of managing the economy than PiS, calling such thoughts "idiotic."

He was echoed by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who said that "the wind was in our eyes for four years. We had a twisting uphill road."

Disappointed opposition

Voter turnout was on track for a record high — a sign of the deep divisions in the country after four years of a PiS government. Each party tried to galvanize its voters by warning that a victory by its rivals would be a disaster for the country. The exit polls indicated a country split almost equally in two.

"Polish society is very, very deeply divided," former President Aleksander Kwaśniewski told Poland's TVN24 news channel.

The results were a blow to the leading opposition Civic Coalition. Its leading party, Civic Platform, founded by European Council President Donald Tusk, ruled Poland from 2007 to 2015.

"There were no rules. We didn’t have a feeling this was an honest fight, that these were fair elections," said party leader Grzegorz Schetyna.

Schetyna held out hope that the opposition may still win in the 100-member upper chamber senate, where in most districts opposition parties united around a single candidate. The body has less power than the Sejm, but opposition control there would make life more difficult for PiS.

The surprise of the night was Confederation, a far-right grouping led by perpetual political gadfly and former MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke.

Smaller opposition parties were much happier with the outcome.

The Left failed to win seats in 2015 because several smaller parties split the left-wing vote and failed to make it over the threshold needed to win seats.

"We’re returning to the parliament!” shouted Robert Biedroń, leader of the Wiosna (Spring) party, and an MEP. “We’ll be a constructive opposition in parliament, we’ll defend the constitution from its first to its last article.”

The Polish Coalition, led by the Polish People's Party, the country's oldest political grouping, was very pleased that it easily passed the 5 percent threshold to win seats.

The surprise of the night was Confederation, a far-right grouping led by perpetual political gadfly and former MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke.

The opposition vowed that the political battle would continue despite being disappointed by the outcome.

"There are elections ahead of us, the presidential vote [in 2020], and we will win, that’s our promise," Schetyna said.

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https://www.politico.eu/article/pola...tary-election/

[Peterski]

Despite the victory, the ruling Law and Justice party wasn’t thrilled with the outcome.

Yes because they were hoping to get supermajority of seats and amend the constitution. But I think that would give them too much power.

If only 3-4 parties instead of 5 made it to the new parliament, PiS would secure supermajority and would be able to amend the constitution.

Election threshold for a party is 5% (for a coalition 8%), and Late Poll results show:

PiS - 43,6%
KO - 27,4%
Lewica - 12,4%
PSL - 9,1%
Konfederacja - 6,4%

Exit poll results by voivodeship. Apparently KO won in only 2 out of 16 regions, which is unprecedented (usually Poland was divided 50/50 - check any maps from previous elections - people were always joking that "you can still see the Partitions" in election results):

WARSAW — Poland's nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party easily won Sunday's parliamentary election, taking 43.6 percent of the vote — enough for an absolute parliamentary majority, according to exit polls released after voting ended at 9 p.m.

That was far ahead of the main opposition party, Civic Coalition, which took 27.4 percent. Further behind was the Left, a grouping of left-wing parties, with 11.9 percent, the conservative Polish Coalition with 9.6 percent, and the right-wing Confederation party with 6.4 percent.

It turns out that exit polls were WAY OFF. Semi-official results after counting votes from 42% of all electoral districts:

Law and Justice - 49,30%
Civic Coalition - 22,27%
Leftists - 10,88%
Polish Coalition - 9,75%
Confederation - 6,62%

[Dragoon]

PIS/United Right: national conservatives, mild euroskeptic, Political Catholicism
PO/KO: liberal-conservatives and liberals
Lewica: new left and social democracy
PSL/Kukiz: Christian democracy, agrarian, conservative liberals
Conf: nationalists, Political Catholicism, conservative liberals/paleolibertarians.

[Peterski]

PO/KO: liberal-conservatives

Not anymore, they shifted more to the left, they allied with the leftists because they were desperate.

PIS/United Right: national conservatives, mild euroskeptic, Political Catholicism

They are building a Scandinavian-style welfare state, though. Economically they are not so right wing.

[pulstar]

So all conservative parties in total have like nearly 70% of total voters? That's horrible

[Viridian1]

So all conservative parties in total have like nearly 70% of total voters? That's horrible

Thats because the left had nothing interesting to offer.

[Peterski]

So all conservative parties in total have like nearly 70% of total voters?

Most of them are conservative only on paper (especially in western propaganda paper).

This is why they will not form a conservative coalition with 70% of all seats (which would give them the power to change constitution, 2/3 is needed).

BTW, results after counting 99.5% of all votes:

PiS - 43,8%
KO - 27,2%
Lewica - 12,5%
PSL - 8,6%
Konfederacja - 6,8%

So exit polls were close to actual results it seems.

That's horrible

Why? Conservatives today are more liberal and more tolerant than liberals themselves, according to scientific studies:

https://stream.org/studies-confirm-c...rant-liberals/

"(...) According to a Pew Research Study, 44% of people who are, as the study defines them, consistently liberal, have hidden, blocked, defriended or stopped following someone on social media due to differences in political beliefs. Only 31% of those who are consistently conservative did the same. This silencing goes beyond social media, too. The same study showed that 24% of liberals have ended a friendship over politics, while that is the case for only 16% of conservatives. (...)"

More:

"(...) the data shows that conservatives are more likely to have friends with different viewpoints, and that we are more likely to listen to them. We are also more likely to seek out alternative viewpoints. A recent study by StatSocial, as reported by The Washington Examiner’s Becket Adams, found that conservatives on Twitter are more likely to follow those with opposing viewpoints than are those on the left. StatSocial’s CEO is quoted in the piece as saying “People on the Left are more insular. They’re less interested in others’ opinions.” The data shows that liberals are less likely to learn about, listen to or be friends with those with opposing viewpoints. So, liberals, are you comfortable with that? With shutting out other viewpoints and only listening to those who support your own? (...)"

Conservatives also know more about liberals than vice versa (= are less delusional):

https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...al-survey-poll

Not to mention how anti-democratic liberals are today (as you can see in the UK currently, how they try to prevent Brexit):

https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/0.../#.WnjfmKinGUk

https://gvwire.com/2018/09/18/reinve...the-economist/

https://www.theamericanconservative....m-and-elitism/

I might disagree that Brexit will be good for the UK, but it was their damn right to do whatever they want with their nation.

You probably dislike this idea - that British people can decide to close their borders, or that conservative majorities can make any decisions about their nations - because you are an immigrant in the West (maybe even in the UK?). But this is true, their country their rules. If they dislike Polacks like me or Balkanites like you, they can close their borders to us. You have no say, their land is not your land, you are just an immigrant who jumped on foreign bandwagon.

[pulstar]

Most of them are conservative only on paper (especially in western propaganda paper of the type you always read).

This is why they will not form a conservative coalition with 70% of all seats (which would give them the power to change constitution, 2/3 is needed).

BTW, results after counting 99.5% of all votes:

PiS - 43,8%
KO - 27,2%
Lewica - 12,5%
PSL - 8,6%
Konfederacja - 6,8%

So exit polls were close to actual results it seems.



Why? Conservatives today are more liberal and more tolerant than liberals themselves, according to scientific studies:

https://stream.org/studies-confirm-c...rant-liberals/

"(...) According to a Pew Research Study, 44% of people who are, as the study defines them, consistently liberal, have hidden, blocked, defriended or stopped following someone on social media due to differences in political beliefs. Only 31% of those who are consistently conservative did the same. This silencing goes beyond social media, too. The same study showed that 24% of liberals have ended a friendship over politics, while that is the case for only 16% of conservatives. (...)"

More:

"(...) the data shows that conservatives are more likely to have friends with different viewpoints, and that we are more likely to listen to them. We are also more likely to seek out alternative viewpoints. A recent study by StatSocial, as reported by The Washington Examiner’s Becket Adams, found that conservatives on Twitter are more likely to follow those with opposing viewpoints than are those on the left. StatSocial’s CEO is quoted in the piece as saying “People on the Left are more insular. They’re less interested in others’ opinions.” The data shows that liberals are less likely to learn about, listen to or be friends with those with opposing viewpoints. So, liberals, are you comfortable with that? With shutting out other viewpoints and only listening to those who support your own? (...)"

Conservatives also know more about liberals than vice versa (= are less delusional):

https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...al-survey-poll

Not to mention how anti-democratic liberals are today (as you can see in the UK currently, how they try to prevent Brexit):

https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/0.../#.WnjfmKinGUk

https://gvwire.com/2018/09/18/reinve...the-economist/

https://www.theamericanconservative....m-and-elitism/

I might disagree that Brexit will be good for the UK, but it was their damn right to do whatever they want with their nation.

You probably dislike this idea - that British people can decide to close their borders, or that conservative majorities can make any decisions about their nations - because you are an immigrant in the West (maybe even in the UK?). But this is true, their country their rules. If they dislike Polacks like me or Balkanites like you, they can close their borders to us. You have no say, their land is not your land, you are just an immigrant who jumped on foreign bandwagon.

Except I'm neither immigrant nor do I plan to move out of my country (for now at least). I have problems with conservatives and nationalists because we had nationalists in 1990's so I know what horrors they bring with themselves.

[Peterski]

Not related to pulstar at all, just a general observation:

I noticed long ago that The Apricity is full of Western leftists and liberals, but racist ones.

And they always blame "inferior races" for their economic problems and social problems.

It is like a flashback from comrades Marx & Engels, who wrote that the Basques etc. had to be eliminated because they could not adapt to supreme communism.

Except I'm neither immigrant nor do I plan to move out of my country (for now at least).

So you live somewhere in the Balkans?

I have problems with conservatives and nationalists because we had nationalists in 1990's so I know what horrors they bring with themselves.

Are you talking about Balkan wars?

[Peterski]

Opposition apparently took the Senate:

Law & Justice - 48 senators
Independent - 1 senator
Opposition - 51 senators

=====

Interesting point of view from discussion on a Polish forum:

"These elections confirm that the Polish people are essentially leftist.

But some of them are economically leftist and socially traditional [Law and Justice, Polish Coalition*]. There is also a group economically liberal and socially leftist [Civic Coalition].

The group that is socially traditional and economically liberal-conservative is less numerous [Confederation], just like the group both economically and socially leftist [Leftists]."

*The core of Polish Coalition is Polish People's Party - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_People%27s_Party

But of course western media will keep saying we're right wing.

Thats because the left had nothing interesting to offer.

Or we don't notice that Confederation is the only true right wing. All the rest are leftists in one way or another.