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Thread: Severe 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) severe droughts in Australia an intense ‘Indian Summer' in Eur

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    Post Severe 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) severe droughts in Australia an intense ‘Indian Summer' in Eur

    Our weather and climate is governed by many factors and phenomenon, either man-made or natural.
    One of those is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently undergoing in the Indian Ocean, resulting in severe droughts in Australia and an intense ‘Indian Summer’ in Europe

    Australia’s big dry is approaching apocalyptic extremes. Huge swathes of the country’s eastern interior have been ravaged by wildfires; regional towns are having to import literal truckloads of water to keep the community going; and, according to ecologists, kangaroos have resorted to eating the stomachs and intestines of other, dead kangaroos in a desperate attempt to sustain themselves.

    And all of this is due to a rare weather phenomenon called an Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD, which is very strong this year.

    As the name implies, this weather phenomenon takes place in the Indian Ocean and consists of two poles:

    The east pole is situated near Sumatra, Indonesia.
    The west pole sits in the western Indian Ocean.

    Sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

    Positive Indian Ocean Dipole
    During a positive IOD, westerly winds weaken along the equator allowing warm water to shift towards Africa.

    Changes in the winds also allow cool water to rise up from the deep ocean in the east.

    This sets up a temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean with cooler than normal water in the east and warmer than normal water in the west.

    Generally this means there is less moisture than normal in the atmosphere to the northwest of Australia. This changes the path of weather systems coming from Australia’s west, often resulting in less rainfall and higher than normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring. In other words, a drought!

    In contrast, the western side of the Indian ocean is hit by higher temperatures than normal as Europe is experiencing right now.

    Looking at the ocean temperature data from Mercator, we can clearly see this trend with cool water temperatures in the east and much warmer temperatures in the west.


    This year the positive IOD is unusually strong, reaching record values for at least the past 60-80 years.



    The ocean phenomenon has started in June and only increased close to its maximum intensity end of September when strong easterly winds started cooling the waters in the eastern pole dramatically.

    Looking at the official analysis for the past 3 months, you clearly observe that large parts of Australia have experienced below average to record-low rainfall, a textbook signature of a positive IOD event.

    According tho the latest weather forecasts, Australia is going to suffer record-high temperatures and isn’t going to reach average rainfall until December 2019. And that’s is another two long months.

    A correlation between the surface pressure and the IOD index from September to October 2019 clearly shows (map below):

    A positive correlation between the IOD and pressure rise over Indonesia and Australia. This is what we observe right now.
    A higher-than average pressure over Europe. This is also happening right now.

    Although we can’t say fore sure that the current warm conditions in Europe are directly linked to the strong IOD, it is highly likely that the weather phenomenon is playing a major role in the current “European Indian summer.” It is indeed relatively close to the European sector, and has a major influence on Africa and the subtropical pressure patterns.

    The global circulation system is interconnected, meaning that a weather phenomenon (IOD in this case) will have consequences on the other side of the world. [BOM-IOD; Severe-Weather]
    from
    https://strangesounds.org/2019/10/st...rope-maps.html


    The dry spells over Indonesia, Australia and Singapore are strongly tied to the ongoing IOD. In fact, the Australian weather agency has been alerting Australians to adverse climate associated with IOD since early spring of this year. The weather agency of Singapore has, similarly, associated the dry spells over Singapore with IOD.
    IOD usually manifests first around early summer and strengthens to a peak in late fall. The current IOD is also following this pattern and has significantly strengthened during August. In fact, it is now very similar in its strength to one of the strongest IOD events in recent decades, that of 2006. [That year, too, a resurgence of rainfall in August across central and western India helped overcome an overall monsoon deficit, but left other parts dry.]

    From available research, IOD impacts on Indian rainfall are expected to continue over Northwestern parts of India and may extend till October/November, when IOD reaches peak activity. We expect that the current IOD will develop to be one of the strongest on record.

    The IOD's influence on the Indian region has a distinct regional signature. There are significant positive correlations between IOD and rainfall over central India and northwestern India This influence extends towards regions of Pakistan and Iran as well. The monsoon rainfall pattern of 2019 reflects the influence of IOD, with excess cumulative rainfall observed over western Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra and Kutch, and northern parts of the Western Ghats (Goa, Maharashtra, and northern Kerala).
    Yfull [B]ID: YF83218 Medals -> https://www.theapricity.com/forum/sh...-the-Deep-dive
    G25 Distance: 1.0778%
    86.2 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
    5.2 ITA_Sardinia_C_o:I15940 1.4 ITA_Daunian
    3.6 PAK_Saidu_Sharif_H
    3.6 VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA:VK464

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    Yfull [B]ID: YF83218 Medals -> https://www.theapricity.com/forum/sh...-the-Deep-dive
    G25 Distance: 1.0778%
    86.2 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
    5.2 ITA_Sardinia_C_o:I15940 1.4 ITA_Daunian
    3.6 PAK_Saidu_Sharif_H
    3.6 VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA:VK464

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