Spoiler!


The drone hit on Soleimani was a win-win for the US and Iranian mullahs. They wanted Soleimani gone because the popular General was gearing up for a takeover. So the US was tipped off.

There are many factions in Iranian politics and each with varying degrees of moderation-extremism with conflicting interests. There are hardcore Islamists (some of them so hardcore that even the mullahs had to put the boot down). This is where Khamenei, Soleimani, and most militia volunteers lie.

Then there are ultranationalists (aka the hardliners) who favour ties with Russia/China. These are the ones who Americans are actually afraid of. They are spiritually fanatical like the Islamists, but not in a dogmatic manner either where they see Saudi Arabia as the home of Islam or seek Islamic Unification for the sake of Islam. They hold a very Persian interpretation of not only Islam, but religion, philosophy, and theology in general. This is where Ahmadinejad, Ghalibaf, and many academics in Iran actually lie.

There are more but those are the most prominent and relevant. They also have west-oriented fifth columns (Rouhani-Green Movement & Co), that can be found in every country, such as Navalny in Russia and populist politicians in Japan and Germany, etc.

The hardliners are essentially who started the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to begin with in the guise of a Communist uprising before other elements got involved. The hardliners aren't necessarily communists or Islamists though.

They hold loyalty to Khamenei, and will never betray him, but not because of Islamist sentiments, but rather over philosophical and nationalistic reasons.

Islamists in general lean towards their sentiments, but what differentiates the likes of Khamenei and Soleimani with the ultranationalists is that the ultranationalists are realists. For example, they will willingly ally with Israel, but only to subvert it later while weakening the country in the process. They are the elements who manage to recruit Mossad double agents while the hardcore Islamists will refuse to talk to them on principle.

Soleimani had been on Mossad's hit list for decades for instance. They had the occasion to take him out in 2006 in Damascus but decided not to at the last minute.

Trump cut off possibility of war at the heart by killing Sulemani. He gave Iran the stare, and allowed them to saber-rattle and then save face on the international stage without having to go to war.

Iran continues to hold a better relationship with PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) than USA; and the ICTS (Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service) takeover hasn't gone as planned. Kadhimi is delivering but it's hardly a guarantee of anything. He is too nationalist to favour any one side.

He plans to make laws that make it illegal to be loyal to a foreign country while in politics, he released all the protesters who have been imprisoned, he raided offices of one of the militias in Basra that had been killing protesters, he reinstated al-Saadi as head of counter-terrorism and he apparently even took down a mural of Soleimani at Baghdad Airport.