Coronavirus 2020 plague

[Ellethwyn]

[Komintasavalta]

The Office of National Statistics of the United Kingdom has published data for all-cause mortality in England grouped by vaccination status: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...d31october2021. People like Alex Jones have been making a big deal out of the data because it shows that vaccinated people have had higher mortality than unvaccinated people, but it's because they weren't looking at age-adjusted mortality, and vaccinated people have been older on average than unvaccinated people: https://www.reuters.com/article/fact...-idUSL1N2SN1P4.

Anyway, another feature of the dataset that has received less attention is that since April or May of last year (depending on whether you look at weekly or monthly data), the age-standardized mortality rate has been lower for unvaccinated people than for people who have been vaccinated once but who were vaccinated 21 days ago or earlier:



The ONS says that in the group that got a single jab 21 days ago or earlier, the high ASMR may be due to a "composition effect":

> The differences in non-COVID-19 mortality rates by vaccination status reflect changes in the composition of the groups. The rises in non-COVID-19 mortality in the each of the vaccination status groups occurred when the population left in that vaccination status group is very small and consists of those people who did not receive the vaccine when eligible. This small population has poorer health than the general population. Therefore, this rise is not linked to the vaccination, but is driven by changes in the composition of the group.
> ...
> The analysis of the non-COVID-19 ASMRs show that the changing composition of the groups of people in the different vaccination statuses can have a large effect on mortality, thereby limiting the insights that can be gained from these comparisons.

It's explained further in a blog post by the ONS (https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/11/19/c...nation-status/):

> Secondly, ASMRs may vary because the composition of the groups is changing over time. For instance, more vulnerable people and health and social care workers were vaccinated first, and as the vaccine rollout progressed, the group of people who had received one dose became more representative of the general population.
> However, after most people had been able to receive two doses, this group becomes atypical, with people being too ill to receive their second dose becoming over-represented. As a consequence, we can see that the ASMR for non-COVID-19 deaths increases in the single-dose group in the later period.
> Thirdly, the level of immunity due to past infection can change over time as more people have had COVID-19. This could explain why the difference in COVID-19 ASMRs between vaccinated and unvaccinated people remains relatively low in the third wave, despite a high level of infection.
> Finally, the effectiveness of the vaccine could also wane over time, causing the mortality rate in fully vaccinated individuals to increase later in the year. It is challenging to untangle the effects that these different factors have on the ASMRs.

However it might also be that people who only got one jab had an adverse reaction to the first jab, so they decided to not get a second jab. Therefore their adverse reaction may have contributed to their death, or their adverse reaction may have been because of their poor health which contributed to their death.

The plot above shows data for deaths that were not attributed to COVID, but I made my own plot which shows data for deaths from all causes. From my plot, you can also see that in May, the group of people who got a single jab 21 days ago or earlier was still fairly large, but it already had a much higher ASMR than the other groups:



In order to recreate my plot, you can install R with your package manager, run `R` to start the R REPL, run `install.packages("ggplot2")`, and paste this code:

library(ggplot2)

t=read.table(text="2498.4 1308.3 1661.1 248.1 162.1
4683.9 977.3 1030.6 637.4 406.5
2676.6 2003.0 990.5 486.1 579.2
2055.4 1927.3 1795.4 461.5 708.7
1695.1 1689.5 4725.8 781.3 847.1
1502.2 1267.0 5337.4 1437.4 781.6
1479.9 857.6 4701.0 1751.5 874.8
1562.2 2000.6 3581.1 1409.4 893.7
1484.3 735.5 3280.0 810.3 932.8
1361.3 1673.5 3018.2 1528.2 955.3")

pop=read.table(text="3052744 221244 35966 23217 4039
2174222 436280 368525 3212 31271
1784083 441664 994253 71774 44850
1354319 193563 1103666 373658 203731
1197309 142790 735942 456008 801816
918234 166875 375294 349615 1413751
U763000 107578 371045 166522 1920382
705504 35897 267917 156761 2159570
634100 30010 151660 97004 2302796
609332 34429 144136 30692 2501224")

colnames(t)=c("1. Unvaccinated","2. One dose (less than 21 days since vaccination)","3. One dose (21 days or more since vaccination)","4. Two doses (less than 21 days since vaccination)","5. Two doses (21 days or more since vaccination)")

taco=function(x)data.frame(V1=rownames(x)[row(x)],V2=colnames(x)[col(x)],V3=unname(do.call(c,x)))
t2=taco(t)
t2$V1=as.integer(t2$V1)

popr=max(t2$V3,na.rm=T)*pop/rowSums(pop)
popr2=taco(popr)
popr2$V1=as.integer(popr2$V1)

group=as.factor(t2$V2)

ggplot(t2,aes(x=V1, y=V3,color=!!group))+
geom_area(data=popr2,aes(x=V1,y=V3,fill=!!group,color=!!group),size=.2,show.legend=F,alpha=.2)+
geom_line(size=.5)+
geom_point(size=1)+
scale_x_continuous(labels=month.abb[1:nrow(t)],breaks=1:nrow(t),expand=expansion(mult=c(.005,.005)))+
scale_y_continuous(breaks=seq(0,10000,500),expand=expansion(mult=c(.005,.005)),sec.axis=sec_axis(trans=~.*100/max(t2$V3,na.rm=T),name="Share of group (%)"))+
labs(x="Month",y="Age-standardized mortality rate per 100,000")+
ggtitle("Age-standardized all-cause mortality in England from January 1 to October 31 2021",subtitle="Data from ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvaccinationstatusengland")+
guides(color=guide_legend(ncol=2))+
scale_color_manual(values=hcl(c(210,90,60,30,0)+15,70,80))+
scale_fill_manual(values=hcl(c(210,90,60,30,0)+15,70,80))+
theme(
  axis.text=element_text(size=6,color="black"),
  axis.ticks=element_blank(),
  axis.ticks.length=unit(0,"cm"),
  axis.title=element_text(size=8),
  legend.background=element_blank(),
  legend.key=element_rect(fill="white"),
  legend.box.just="center",
  legend.box.margin=margin(0,unit="cm"),
  legend.box.spacing=unit(0,"in"),
  legend.direction="vertical",
  legend.justification="center",
  legend.margin=margin(-6,0,0,0),
  legend.position="bottom",
  legend.text=element_text(size=7,vjust=.5),
  legend.title=element_blank(),
  panel.background=element_rect(fill="white"),
  panel.grid.major=element_blank(),
  panel.grid.minor=element_blank(),
  plot.background=element_rect(fill="white"),
  plot.subtitle=element_text(size=6),
  plot.title=element_text(size=10)
)

ggsave("1.png",width=6,height=6)

[Roy]

Am I the only one who recived the vaccin here?

I have received three doses already.

[PHDNM]

[Universe]

What do you think about ivermectin? There's so much conflicting evidence about it, so I'm not really sure what to think.

[PHDNM]

[NSXD60]

There was a band called Insane Clown Posse which nowadays best describes governmental round-'em-up procedures regarding those that don't adhere to the latest flu mandates.

[Ellethwyn]

[Dick]

[Celestia]

I just spat out my water. Can you imagine going into war and checking for vaccine passports beforehand.
“Alright you’re good man, break a leg”