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I believe the origin of E-V13 is in Late Neolithic Alpine region, it could be North-East Spain, France, Switzerland whatever. The reason for this is robust, the Cardial Croatian Dalmatian E-L618 sample is dated to 7600-7490 YBP (similar timeline in Lengyel/Sopot without the E-V13 mutation) then the Spanish Cardial Neolithic sample with actual E-V13 mutation is dated to 7000 YBP, so the difference in time is 400-500 years, and the trajectory of E-L618 was colonization to west mediterranean, so somewhere in between Croatian Dalmatia and Spain happened the E-V13 mutation. North of North Italy would be a safe bet.
Another reason is that, oldest E-V13 subclades so far are either Germans or Italians, so a region in between modern German living people and Italians is a good bet. Based on modern distribution and TMRCA chances for an origin from Neolithic Balkans, or from Eastern European Cucuteni-Trypillian civilizations are 0%, no E-V13 in Bulgarian EBA, no E-V13 in Northern Serbian EBA as well.
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