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One thing to add here is that it makes sense historically for Romanians in both Romanian Moldavia and Republic of Moldova to be similar on comparable latitudes in the Centre and North of the country.Originally Posted by Nurzat
But for the South of Republic of Moldova, this is probably guaranteed for villages that hug the Prut river. But for the rest, it might not be as predictable.
Remember that for the Southern region, I have the least amount of samples and a significant chunk come from the same village. I personally expect Southerners to be closer to Centrals and Northerners than it might appear today. Obviously those on the Prut will likely be more Southern on average, but I don't expect anything crazy like in outliers of Caplani. It will likely land somewhere in the Galati-Vaslui ranges for unmixed people, which combine both Central and Southern-like results.
After all, those stranding the Prut up to about Vadul lui Isac - Colibasi are genuine old Southern Moldovans.
Elsewhere in the South however, we would probably get either 1) same Moldovans/Romanians as in the South, Centre and North, 2) Bulgarians/Gagauz, 3) Russians/Ukrainians, 4) mixes of all
Here's my rationale for that. When we think of Moldavia historically, we think of this map:
But that's simply due to nationalism, because Moldavia looked like that for less than one hundred years in the 14th-15th centuries.
Up to modern times (from roughly 1484 to 1812), Moldavia actually looked like this, with a very brief period of reconquest during Mihai Viteazul's time:
And here's my rendition superimposed on villages, where I traced by following the names of the villages from above.
Red = current borders of Republic of Moldova
Black = limit of Moldova between 1484-1812; South and East of it were proper Ottoman lands where very few Moldovans/Romanians lived.
This territory was repopulated by Moldovans descending from further North or those by the Prut moving East after 1812.
Here also came waves of Bulgarians/Gagauz, Russians, Ukrainians and Germans.
Here you could find very Southern, very Northern people, and everything in-between; sometimes in very unexpected places because of this repopulation.
Like in the case of the village of Caplani from Stefan Voda, from where the academic Reich lab samples come. There the inhabitants are almost unanimously Moldovans/Romanians nowadays, but ethnically 6/10 of those tested look like Southern Bulgarians, whereas others like more typical Moldovans. Their surnames have a strong Russian element in some, which can also mean that there was a three-way national mix in there and the Romanian cultural element prevailed.
But then after 4 villages upwards from them in Festelita, there are 2 sisters whom I match on 23andme. They score around 50% Eastern Euro and 50% Balkan. These results are on the Northern-most cline and considering how the village is surrounded by a Russian and Ukrainian village, I wouldn't be surprised if some mix from there occurred. However, that's not necessary, because, again, this is the place that wasn't under Moldova's control for 400 years. Because of that, they are likely descendants of people who have resettled the village after 1812.
Therefore, they could simply be unmixed Moldovans/Romanians who trace ancestry to anywhere in the Central-Northern region.
TL;DR: full Stefan Voda, Causeni, Cimislia, parts of Anenii Noi, Hincesti, Leova, Cantemir and Cahul districts, which were not part of Moldavia between 1484-1812, were resettled very recently with Moldovans from elsewhere in the country. Some of the villages there were purely founded by colonists of Bulgarian/Gagauz, Russian/Ukrainian and German descent (most Germans left however). It is not unusual for all elements to mix in some villages. Because of this heterogenity, results there likely range from 1) Southern Bulgarian like to 2) typical old Moldovan at Southern latitudes (similar to Galati county), to 3) Central and Northern Moldovans who helped resettle and romanise the region after 1812, in the vacuum left by Tatars, to 4) Russian and Ukrainian.
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