Fatyanovo-Balanovo autosomal results?

[Trouble]

Fatyanovo is Corded Ware-like, which means it's close to both modern Northwest and Northeast Europeans, but both are around equally distant from it (because of extra EEF and WHG admixture)
But, interestingly, modern Russians, who are the modern group who could most likely have some direct Fatyanovo ancestry, end up the closest.

Could be. But it might just be that they have just the right ancestry proportions to make it *appear* so. I just ran the samples with Corded Ware Germany and Czech Republic along with Fatyonovo and Sintashta to see if Russians or any other population scored any of the eastern groups. Not a single one did.

What even is the Fatyanovo really? Is it just steppe?
Distance: 1.6783% / 0.01678252
Target: DrMaul
50.9 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_C
16.2 RUS_Fatyanovo_BA
12.6 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
10.4 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
6.0 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_BA
3.9 IRN_Seh_Gabi_LN

it is one of the groups that we associate with the steppe, yes. Although it is technically right in between the early bronze age Yamnaya and modern N/E Europeans. The steppe that you and I have comes from Sintashta and by proxy Fatyanovo

[Kaazi]

OK I see. You should have labeled them as "average"

Distance to: RUS_Sintashta_MLBA
0.05194385 Russian_Kursk
0.05221063 Russian_Tver
0.05354139 Russian_Orel
0.05632986 Icelandic
0.05679269 Norwegian
0.05748393 Swedish
0.05878497 Ukrainian
0.05936293 Irish
0.05954282 Russian_Kostroma
0.06022995 Belarusian
0.06065090 Russian_Voronez
0.06079473 Russian_Smolensk
0.06169603 Scottish
0.06205062 Finnish
0.06831252 Latvian
0.07469697 Finnish_East
0.08159222 Russian_Pinega


Very good work. I will now try to model each of these populations using ancient components.

Target: Latvian
Distance: 4.9720% / 0.04972001
49.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
30.6 UKR_Globular_Amphora
19.8 Baltic_LVA_HG

Target: Finnish_East
Distance: 4.6555% / 0.04655509
33.0 UKR_Globular_Amphora
32.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
20.2 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
8.0 Baltic_LVA_HG
6.4 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Finnish
Distance: 4.1753% / 0.04175254
37.4 UKR_Globular_Amphora
34.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
18.8 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
5.8 Baltic_LVA_HG
3.6 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Belarusian
Distance: 4.3469% / 0.04346887
49.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
39.8 UKR_Globular_Amphora
11.2 Baltic_LVA_HG

Target: Ukrainian
Distance: 3.8680% / 0.03868032
49.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
44.0 UKR_Globular_Amphora
6.6 Baltic_LVA_HG

Target: Russian_Voronez
Distance: 4.2760% / 0.04276008
48.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
42.4 UKR_Globular_Amphora
7.8 Baltic_LVA_HG
1.6 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
0.2 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Russian_Tver
Distance: 3.9973% / 0.03997349
49.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
37.0 UKR_Globular_Amphora
9.2 Baltic_LVA_HG
2.4 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
2.0 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Russian_Smolensk
Distance: 4.3963% / 0.04396341
49.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
40.6 UKR_Globular_Amphora
10.4 Baltic_LVA_HG

Target: Russian_Pinega
Distance: 4.6625% / 0.04662529
36.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
30.6 UKR_Globular_Amphora
12.4 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
10.8 Baltic_LVA_HG
9.6 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Russian_Orel
Distance: 3.8318% / 0.03831789
50.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
40.8 UKR_Globular_Amphora
7.4 Baltic_LVA_HG
0.6 RUS_Baikal_EBA
0.6 RUS_Sidelkino_HG

Target: Russian_Kursk
Distance: 3.8057% / 0.03805675
51.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
39.2 UKR_Globular_Amphora
8.4 Baltic_LVA_HG
1.0 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Russian_Kostroma
Distance: 4.2034% / 0.04203367
45.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
35.4 UKR_Globular_Amphora
7.8 Baltic_LVA_HG
6.0 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
5.8 RUS_Baikal_EBA

Target: Norwegian
Distance: 2.7851% / 0.02785117
50.2 UKR_Globular_Amphora
41.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
8.4 RUS_Sidelkino_HG

Target: Swedish
Distance: 3.0000% / 0.02999954
47.2 UKR_Globular_Amphora
44.0 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
5.4 Baltic_LVA_HG
3.4 RUS_Sidelkino_HG

Target: Icelandic
Distance: 2.7457% / 0.02745734
47.6 UKR_Globular_Amphora
46.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
5.2 Baltic_LVA_HG
0.6 RUS_Sidelkino_HG

Target: Scottish
Distance: 2.4080% / 0.02407967
52.0 UKR_Globular_Amphora
45.4 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
2.0 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
0.6 Baltic_LVA_HG

Target: Irish
Distance: 2.5211% / 0.02521126
51.0 UKR_Globular_Amphora
46.6 Yamnaya_RUS_Samara
1.6 RUS_Sidelkino_HG
0.8 Baltic_LVA_HG

Sintashta was closest to Swedish. You just used that 14 co-ordinates only? Can it considered reliable? The Norwegians and Finns look pretty low Steppe than thought of. Try this modeling for Shetlandic and Moldovan_o, I think it has pretty high level.

[Zoro]

What even is the Fatyanovo really? Is it just steppe?
Distance: 1.6783% / 0.01678252
Target: DrMaul
50.9 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_C
16.2 RUS_Fatyanovo_BA
12.6 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
10.4 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
6.0 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_BA
3.9 IRN_Seh_Gabi_LN

Nothing that’s relevant to Iranics. The type of steppe relevant to Medes —-> Iranics is Andronovo (not Sintashta). Medes were about 50% Iran-Chl + 30% Turkmenistan-IA (Yaz culture) + 15% Levant-N

https://eurasiandna.com/?p=2659

A Sintashta model was attempted for Turkmenistan-IA and it failed, but Andronovo did not fail. This of course makes alot of sense since Yaz culture and Andronovo were neighbors (check the map in the study) and Sintashta was further away.

So Turkmenistan-IA (Yaz) was modelled as 40% local Gonur-BA (BMAC and Yaz neighbors) + 60% Andronovo (neighbor of Yaz)

For example, Iraqi Kurds successfully model was 70% Mede + 22% Saka (TianShan or Xiongnu) + 7% Levant-N


When modelling you’re not allowed to have more than 1 W Iranic ancient in your model. It’s called over-fitting. You have to either use 1 type of Iran-chl or Iran-IA or Iran-N that’s it. In your model you must remove 3 W. Iranic ancients. Instead of Fatyano you have to choose either Andronovo or Turkmenistan-IA. Next you need Levant-N and either Saka-TS or one of the E Sarmatians

[Dr_Maul]

Nothing that’s relevant to Iranics. The type of steppe relevant to Medes —-> Iranics is Andronovo (not Sintashta). Medes were about 50% Iran-Chl + 30% Turkmenistan-IA (Yaz culture) + 15% Levant-N

https://eurasiandna.com/?p=2659

A Sintashta model was attempted for Turkmenistan-IA and it failed, but Andronovo did not fail. This of course makes alot of sense since Yaz culture and Andronovo were neighbors (check the map in the study) and Sintashta was further away.

So Turkmenistan-IA (Yaz) was modelled as 40% local Gonur-BA (BMAC and Yaz neighbors) + 60% Andronovo (neighbor of Yaz)

For example, Iraqi Kurds successfully model was 70% Mede + 22% Saka (TianShan or Xiongnu) + 7% Levant-N


When modelling you’re not allowed to have more than 1 W Iranic ancient in your model. It’s called over-fitting. You have to either use 1 type of Iran-chl or Iran-IA or Iran-N that’s it. In your model you must remove 3 W. Iranic ancients. Instead of Fatyano you have to choose either Andronovo or Turkmenistan-IA. Next you need Levant-N and either Saka-TS or one of the E Sarmatians

Distance: 1.3239% / 0.01323877
Target: DrMaul
54.6 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_C
27.2 TKM_IA
9.6 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
5.4 Levant_ISR_C
3.2 Saka_Tian_Shan

[Zoro]

Distance: 1.3239% / 0.01323877
Target: DrMaul
54.6 IRN_Hajji_Firuz_C
27.2 TKM_IA
9.6 IRN_Shahr_I_Sokhta_BA2
5.4 Levant_ISR_C
3.2 Saka_Tian_Shan

Looks good (subject to limitations of G25) you can also check Levant-N instead of C and i would also try swapping haji-firuz for Seh-Gabi just to get a range of values

Edit: Try Hasanlu-IA (Mede) instead of Iran-chl and since Mede already has 30% Turkmenistan-Ia, you can drop it so try a model with Mede+Levant-N+Saka. I believe G25 will underestimate your Saka but there’s nothing you can do about it. At least you would have tried

[Dr_Maul]

Looks good (subject to limitations of G25) you can also check Levant-N instead of C and i would also try swapping haji-firuz for Seh-Gabi just to get a range of values

Edit: Try Hasanlu-IA (Mede) instead of Iran-chl and since Mede already has 30% Turkmenistan-Ia, you can drop it so try a model with Mede+Levant-N+Saka. I believe G25 will underestimate your Saka but there’s nothing you can do about it. At least you would have tried

Can't find Levant_N, unless u mean Natufian? no Andronovo either
Distance: 1.8467% / 0.01846651
Target: DrMaul
50.8 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
27.5 TKM_IA
11.9 Levant_ISR_C
9.8 Saka_Tian_Shan

Distance: 1.8125% / 0.01812528
Target: DrMaul
65.5 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
16.0 RUS_Sintashta_MLBA
11.7 Saka_Tian_Shan
6.8 Levant_ISR_C

[Trouble]

Sintashta was closest to Swedish. You just used that 14 co-ordinates only? Can it considered reliable? The Norwegians and Finns look pretty low Steppe than thought of. Try this modeling for Shetlandic and Moldovan_o, I think it has pretty high level.

Hmm, I dont know why I missed that. I guess I was too focused on the east Europeans. Yea, this deflates their steppe. The 14 coords are not reliable. I wonder if we can reduce the Baltic drift another way.

[Trouble]

Can't find Levant_N, unless u mean Natufian? no Andronovo either
Distance: 1.8467% / 0.01846651
Target: DrMaul
50.8 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
27.5 TKM_IA
11.9 Levant_ISR_C
9.8 Saka_Tian_Shan

Distance: 1.8125% / 0.01812528
Target: DrMaul
65.5 IRN_Seh_Gabi_C
16.0 RUS_Sintashta_MLBA
11.7 Saka_Tian_Shan
6.8 Levant_ISR_C

Levant_N was taken out a long time ago. I think they changed it to either Levant PPNC or Jor_EBA. I use Jor_EBA for it.

There is no sample called Andronovo but some sites represent it. Krasnoyarsk is one but it's the far eastern, slightly HG shifted end of the Andronovo culture. You could try using these:

KAZ_Lisakovskiy_MLBA_Alakul
and Kaz_Maitan_MLBA_Alakul

[vbnetkhio]

Hmm, I dont know why I missed that. I guess I was too focused on the east Europeans. Yea, this deflates their steppe. The 14 coords are not reliable. I wonder if we can reduce the Baltic drift another way.

I used 13 coordinates because at 14 the Baltic drift becomes too strong again. however some of the higher coordinates again don't have it. I could include those for increased precision.

[Trouble]

I used 13 coordinates because at 14 the Baltic drift becomes too strong again. however some of the higher coordinates again don't have it. I could include those for increased precision.

Yes, please do. Exclude all the ones with the Baltic drift and include all the ones that don’t or which have it at low amounts.