The genomic history of the Aegean palatial civilizations

[Ajeje Brazorf]

That Italian/Greek/Albanian and pseudo-Slavic profile is not entirely new in the Balkans...

Distance to: Scythian_UKR:scy009
0.03273887 Sorb_Niederlausitz
0.03346242 Polish
0.03600157 Czech

Distance to: Scythian_MDA:scy305
0.03149210 Greek_Thessaly
0.03221231 Albanian
0.03297776 Greek_Macedonia

Distance to: Scythian_MDA:scy300
0.03338930 Italian_Marche
0.03401693 Italian_Tuscany
0.03409884 Italian_Umbria

Distance to: Scythian_MDA:scy197
0.03508769 Italian_Piedmont
0.03581699 Italian_Lombardy
0.03589006 Albanian

Distance to: Scythian_MDA:scy192
0.03169307 Greek_Thessaly
0.03236805 Italian_Umbria
0.03310280 Albanian

Distance to: Scythian_HUNA198
0.03512905 Italian_Lombardy
0.03557075 French_Corsica
0.03578993 Italian_Piedmont

Distance to: Scythian_HUNA197
0.03088295 Slovenian
0.03146443 Croatian
0.03146927 Austrian

Distance to: Scythian_HUNA195
0.02784575 Romanian
0.02971606 Montenegrin
0.03159329 Macedonian

[JohnnyP]

G25 Individually modern sample closest to Log4 is Macedonian from Southwest, i just put it to see from all individuals which one is closest. (It's not in Vahaduo Spreadsheet)

[bained]

Distance to: Aunt
5.52813712 DA195_Hungary_Scythian.SG_2553_ybp
6.09697466 Greece_MBA_Log04
6.94280203 STR310_Germany_Early_Medieval.SG_1430_ybp

Distance to: BaiNed
7.58159614 SZ1.SG_longobard_hungary
7.67220307 SZ1_Hungary_BA.SG_3950_ybp
7.67570192 Greece_MBA_Log04


WE WUZ NEVER SLAVS AND SHIT.

[vbnetkhio]

Abstract: The Cycladic, the Minoan, and the Helladic (Mycenaean) cultures define the Bronze Age (BA) of Greece. Urbanism, complex social structures, craft and agricultural specialization, and the earliest forms of writing, characterize this iconic period. We sequenced six early to middle BA whole genomes, along with 11 mtDNA genomes, sampled from the three BA cultures of the Aegean Sea. The Early BA (EBA) genomes are homogeneous and derive most of their ancestry from Neolithic Aegeans, contrary to earlier hypotheses that the Neolithic-EBA cultural transition was due to massive population turn-over. EBA Aegeans were shaped by relatively small-scale migration from East of the Aegean, as evidenced by the Caucasus-related ancestry also detected in Anatolians. In contrast, Middle BA (MBA) individuals of northern Greece differ from EBA populations in showing ~50% Pontic-Caspian Steppe-related ancestry, dated at ca. 2,600-2,000 BCE. Such gene flow events during the MBA contributed towards shaping present-day Greek genomes.
https://trace.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Trace...tudy=ERP121113

Greeks from Steppe_MLBA confirmed

this is my take on these samples:


in the Minoan and early Helladic period there were 2 clusters which coexisted for some time. One was still identical to Pelloponese_N, (yellow) and the other was more Kura Araxes shifted.(red)

oracle("Cycladic_EBA",mode="2way",k=100)
       [,1]                                                                   [,2]    
  [1,] "76 %  GRC_Peloponnese_N  +  24 %  Kura-Araxes_ARM_Kalavan"            "0.0135"

It seems the "Pelopponese_N" profile died out by 2000 BC, or maybe just rare outliers were like that.
Helladic-MBA invaders arrive around 2000 BC, and they mixed with the local population wich was mostly like Cycladic_EBA.

The resulting mixture were the "Myceanean" and "Empuries" samples (Green). These are the youngest ancient Greek samples we have.

oracle("GRC_Mycenaean",mode="2way",k=500)

[357,] "77.5 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  22.5 %  Helladic_MBA"                          "0.0222"

Now let's try a model with these clusters, plus the major influences which came later: Levantine (from the Roman times) and Slavic.
I won't use the Myceaneans and Empuries, since they are just a mix of other 2 clusters which are already in the model (Cycladic_EBA and Helladic_MBA).

first with Peloponnese_N , just in case:

it's unnecessary, this again confirms that EBA Greeks were mostly like Cycladic_EBA.

now without it:

[Abriekman]

this is my take on these samples:


in the Minoan and early Helladic period there were 2 clusters which coexisted for some time. One was still identical to Pelloponese_N, (yellow) and the other was more Kura Araxes shifted.(red)

oracle("Cycladic_EBA",mode="2way",k=100)
       [,1]                                                                   [,2]    
  [1,] "76 %  GRC_Peloponnese_N  +  24 %  Kura-Araxes_ARM_Kalavan"            "0.0135"

It seems the "Pelopponese_N" profile died out by 2000 BC, or maybe just rare outliers were like that.
Helladic-MBA invaders arrive around 2000 BC, and they mixed with the local population wich was mostly like Cycladic_EBA.

The resulting mixture were the "Myceanean" and "Empuries" samples (Green). These are the youngest ancient Greek samples we have.

oracle("GRC_Mycenaean",mode="2way",k=500)

[357,] "77.5 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  22.5 %  Helladic_MBA"                          "0.0222"

Now let's try a model with these clusters, plus the major influences which came later: Levantine (from the Roman times) and Slavic.
I won't use the Myceaneans and Empuries, since they are just a mix of other 2 clusters which are already in the model (Cycladic_EBA and Helladic_MBA).

first with Peloponnese_N , just in case:

it's unnecessary, this again confirms that EBA Greeks were mostly like Cycladic_EBA.

now without it:

Is not Slavic admixture overestimated here in your opinion?

[vbnetkhio]

Is not Slavic admixture overestimated here in your opinion?

Probably. Helladic MBA also seems too high. Mycenaeans and Empuries have 3x more Cycladic_EBA than they have Helladic_MBA, and the modern samples all get less than that.
But it's a reasonable model and a small distance, so this is probably the best you can get from G25/nmonte

I'll try to check what qpAdm says.

[vbnetkhio]

Is not Slavic admixture overestimated here in your opinion?

more realistic?

Target	Distance		Cycladic_EBA	Helladic_MBA	Levant_Beirut_ERoman	RUS_Sunghir_MA
Greek_Central_Macedonia	0.01213318	•	26.0	23.6	15.4	35.0
Greek_Laconia	0.01666913	•	36.9	7.6	24.9	30.6
Greek_Macedonia	0.01207484	•	21.3	33.7	14.9	30.1
Greek_Peloponnese	0.00945162	•	28.3	23.1	20.6	28.0
Greek_Izmir	0.01286867	•	21.3	33.8	27.5	17.4
Greek_Thessaly	0.01018825	•	15.3	56.0	12.3	16.4
Greek_Crete	0.01226859	•	10.9	41.4	40.3	7.4
Greek_Kos	0.01572225	•	15.7	37.2	44.1	3.0
Greek_Dodecanese	0.01696819	•	14.4	40.6	45.0	0.0
Average	0.01314941	•	21.1	33.0	27.2	18.7

[Abriekman]

more realistic?

Target	Distance		Cycladic_EBA	Helladic_MBA	Levant_Beirut_ERoman	RUS_Sunghir_MA
Greek_Central_Macedonia	0.01213318	•	26.0	23.6	15.4	35.0
Greek_Laconia	0.01666913	•	36.9	7.6	24.9	30.6
Greek_Macedonia	0.01207484	•	21.3	33.7	14.9	30.1
Greek_Peloponnese	0.00945162	•	28.3	23.1	20.6	28.0
Greek_Izmir	0.01286867	•	21.3	33.8	27.5	17.4
Greek_Thessaly	0.01018825	•	15.3	56.0	12.3	16.4
Greek_Crete	0.01226859	•	10.9	41.4	40.3	7.4
Greek_Kos	0.01572225	•	15.7	37.2	44.1	3.0
Greek_Dodecanese	0.01696819	•	14.4	40.6	45.0	0.0
Average	0.01314941	•	21.1	33.0	27.2	18.7

Probably more realistic, but I can not understand what is wrong, it is too high still. Avar Szolad is the best for Slavic admixture. On previous models for Greeks how much Slavic do they have? It is related to new samples I think

[vbnetkhio]

Probably more realistic, but I can not understand what is wrong, it is too high still. Avar Szolad is the best for Slavic admixture. On previous models for Greeks how much Slavic do they have? It is related to new samples I think

One of the Avaro-Slavs (AV1) could have a small amount Germanic ancestry, while Sunghir is purely Balto Slavic.
I think Mainland Greeks turned out around 30% Slavic in previous models too.

[vbnetkhio]

So Northern Greeks turn like Northern Greeks or more specifically early Northern Greeks before mixing with Sourthern Greek civilizations turn like Northern Greeks and they evaluate as an Anatolian Neolithic-Steppe mix as it was obvious from ~2016 when the Anatolian Neolithic and Yamnaya samples came out.

Very interesting.

So much for Northern Greeks being wholly Slavovlachs. I remember Polako posting that ancient Greeks were Iberians and modern Greek clustering hails from a 3-way mix between Iberians, Turks and Udmurts.

the "distance" algorythm is much less sensitive to minor genetic differences than the "mixed mode" algorythms.
according to distances, Helladic MBA is identical to modern mainland Greeks and Albanians, but look at the mixed mode:


Helladic_MBA - gets only steppe populations for it's northern shift, and not a single Balto-Slavic one:

> oracle("Helladic_MBA",mode="2way",k=100)
                                                               [,2]    
  [1,] "57.3 %  HUN_Starcevo_N  +  42.7 %  RUS_Catacomb"                       "0.0138"
  [2,] "82 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  18 %  RUS_Khvalynsk_En"                     "0.0139"
  [3,] "73.9 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  26.1 %  KAZ_Dali_MLBA"                    "0.0144"
  [4,] "72.6 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  27.4 %  KAZ_Mys_MLBA"                     "0.0145"
  [5,] "58 %  HUN_Starcevo_N  +  42 %  RUS_Afanasievo"                         "0.0149"
  [6,] "72.5 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  27.5 %  UZB_Kashkarchi_BA"                "0.0149"
  [7,] "71.7 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  28.3 %  TJK_Dashti_Kozy_BA"               "0.0151"
  [8,] "78 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  22 %  RUS_Sintashta_MLBA_o2"                "0.0151"
  [9,] "70.9 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  29.1 %  RUS_Krasnoyarsk_MLBA"             "0.0152"
 [10,] "71.5 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  28.5 %  KAZ_Shoendykol_MLBA_Fedorovo"     "0.0154"
 [11,] "75.1 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  24.9 %  KAZ_Satan_MLBA_Alakul"            "0.0157"
 [12,] "64.6 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  35.4 %  Scythian_UKR"                     "0.0157"
 [13,] "73.3 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  26.7 %  KAZ_Taldysay_MLBA1"               "0.0158"
 [14,] "72.8 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  27.2 %  KAZ_Oy_Dzhaylau_MLBA"             "0.0159"
 [15,] "71.3 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  28.7 %  KAZ_Kyzlbulak_MLBA1"              "0.016" 
 [16,] "71.4 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  28.6 %  RUS_Srubnaya_Alakul_MLBA"         "0.0161"
 [17,] "74.9 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  25.1 %  RUS_Potapovka_MLBA"               "0.0161"
 [18,] "70.4 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  29.6 %  KAZ_Aktogai_MLBA"                 "0.0162"
 [19,] "79.2 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  20.8 %  KAZ_Maitan_MLBA_Alakul_o"         "0.0164"
 [20,] "72.2 %  HUN_MA_Szolad_o1  +  27.8 %  KAZ_Zevakinskiy_BA"               "0.0164"

mainland Greeks and Albanians - get only Balto-Slavs and Balto-Slavic admixed populations for their northern shift, and no steppe.

gr_macedonia

      [,1]                                                                     [,2]    
  [1,] "47 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad  +  53 %  TUR_Kaman-Kalehoyuk_MLBA"               "0.0134"
  [2,] "34.3 %  DEU_Singen_EIA  +  65.7 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                      "0.0141"
  [3,] "24.9 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad  +  75.1 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                     "0.0147"
  [4,] "43 %  IND_Roopkund_B_o  +  57 %  Scythian_HUN"                          "0.0149"
  [5,] "78.5 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  21.5 %  VK2020_POL_Sandomierz_VA"            "0.015" 
  [6,] "25 %  Bell_Beaker_CZE_o  +  75 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                       "0.015" 
  [7,] "46.6 %  RUS_Sunghir_MA  +  53.4 %  TUR_Kaman-Kalehoyuk_MLBA"            "0.0152"
  [8,] "75.5 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  24.5 %  RUS_Sunghir_MA"                      "0.0155"
  [9,] "61.8 %  Scythian_HUN  +  38.2 %  TUR_Ikiztepe_LC"                       "0.0155"
 [10,] "52.1 %  TUR_Camlibel_Tarlasi_LC  +  47.9 %  VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA"      "0.016" 
 [11,] "77.9 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  22.1 %  VK2020_POL_Cedynia_VA"               "0.0162"
 [12,] "52.9 %  TUR_Camlibel_Tarlasi_LC  +  47.1 %  VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA"       "0.0164"
 [13,] "57.8 %  TUR_Isparta_EBA  +  42.2 %  VK2020_POL_Sandomierz_VA"           "0.0166"
 [14,] "36.4 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad  +  63.6 %  ITA_Rome_Imperial"                  "0.0166"
 [15,] "76.8 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  23.2 %  VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA"               "0.0167"
 [16,] "49.7 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad  +  50.3 %  TUR_Camlibel_Tarlasi_LC"            "0.0167"
 [17,] "77.4 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  22.6 %  VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA"                "0.0167"
 [18,] "63.8 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  36.2 %  Scythian_HUN"                        "0.0169"
 [19,] "64 %  ITA_Rome_Imperial  +  36 %  RUS_Sunghir_MA"                       "0.0169"
 [20,] "79.1 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  20.9 %  VK2020_RUS_Kurevanikha_VA"           "0.017" 

gr_peloponnese
       [,1]                                                                  [,2]    
  [1,] "76.4 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  23.6 %  Scythian_HUN"                     "0.0127"
  [2,] "21.4 %  DEU_Singen_EIA  +  78.6 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                   "0.0131"
  [3,] "52.8 %  Scythian_HUN  +  47.2 %  TUR_Kaman-Kalehoyuk_MLBA"           "0.0137"
  [4,] "18.7 %  HUN_LBA  +  81.3 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                          "0.0138"
  [5,] "56.1 %  Scythian_HUN  +  43.9 %  TUR_Camlibel_Tarlasi_LC"            "0.0143"
  [6,] "14.9 %  HUN_Mako_EBA  +  85.1 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                     "0.0143"
  [7,] "15.1 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad  +  84.9 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                  "0.0144"
  [8,] "15.1 %  Bell_Beaker_CZE_o  +  84.9 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                "0.0147"
  [9,] "56.7 %  Scythian_HUN  +  43.3 %  TUR_Arslantepe_LC"                  "0.0147"
 [10,] "17.6 %  CZE_Hallstatt_Bylany  +  82.4 %  IND_Roopkund_B"             "0.0148"
 [11,] "61.6 %  ITA_Collegno_MA_o1  +  38.4 %  Scythian_HUN"                 "0.0148"
 [12,] "15 %  DEU_Tollense_BA  +  85 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                      "0.0149"
 [13,] "50.8 %  IND_Roopkund_B_o  +  49.2 %  Scythian_HUN"                   "0.0149"
 [14,] "87.1 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  12.9 %  VK2020_POL_Sandomierz_VA"         "0.015" 
 [15,] "13.6 %  DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA  +  86.4 %  IND_Roopkund_B"             "0.015" 
 [16,] "85.3 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  14.7 %  RUS_Sunghir_MA"                   "0.0151"
 [17,] "60.6 %  ITA_Rome_Imperial  +  39.4 %  Scythian_HUN"                  "0.0152"
 [18,] "86 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  14 %  VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA"                "0.0153"
 [19,] "86.4 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  13.6 %  VK2020_POL_Bodzia_VA"             "0.0154"
 [20,] "58.2 %  Scythian_HUN  +  41.8 %  TUR_Arslantepe_EBA"                 "0.0154"

Albanian
       [,1]                                                                       [,2]    
  [1,] "59.4 %  Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2  +  40.6 %  VK2020_UKR_Lutsk_MA"       "0.0144"
  [2,] "52.9 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  47.1 %  VK2020_RUS_Gnezdovo_VA"                  "0.0146"
  [3,] "30.3 %  Baltic_EST_IA  +  69.7 %  Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2"             "0.0149"
  [4,] "63.7 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  36.3 %  Baltic_EST_IA"                           "0.0151"
  [5,] "54.9 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  45.1 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad"                         "0.0158"
  [6,] "61.1 %  Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2  +  38.9 %  UKR_Chernyakhiv_Legedzine" "0.0159"
  [7,] "59.8 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  40.2 %  VK2020_RUS_Kurevanikha_VA"               "0.0159"
  [8,] "55.2 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  44.8 %  RUS_Sunghir_MA"                          "0.0159"
  [9,] "63.1 %  Scythian_HUN  +  36.9 %  TUR_Ikiztepe_LC"                         "0.016" 
 [10,] "50.8 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  49.2 %  CZE_Early_Slav"                          "0.016" 
 [11,] "30.9 %  Baltic_EST_MA  +  69.1 %  Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2"             "0.0162"
 [12,] "34.9 %  DEU_Singen_EIA  +  65.1 %  IND_Roopkund_B"                        "0.0163"
 [13,] "35.7 %  DEU_Krakauer_Berg_MA  +  64.3 %  Iberia_Northeast_Empuries2"      "0.0164"
 [14,] "61.9 %  IND_Roopkund_B  +  38.1 %  Scythian_HUN"                          "0.0164"
 [15,] "64.3 %  Scythian_HUN  +  35.7 %  TUR_Camlibel_Tarlasi_LC"                 "0.0164"
 [16,] "61.7 %  Scythian_HUN  +  38.3 %  TUR_Kaman-Kalehoyuk_MLBA"                "0.0164"
 [17,] "63 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  37 %  Baltic_EST_MA"                               "0.0166"
 [18,] "49.6 %  TUR_Buyukkaya_EC  +  50.4 %  VK2020_RUS_Gnezdovo_VA"              "0.0166"
 [19,] "55.4 %  BGR_Krepost_N  +  44.6 %  HUN_Avar_Szolad"                        "0.0166"
 [20,] "56.6 %  Cycladic_EBA  +  43.4 %  VK2020_SWE_Gotland_VA"                   "0.0166"

this is what gets picked by the algorythm from the full sheet, so there's no sample choice bias.