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What is especially interesting is that Serbian population of Bosnian Krajina, Dalmatia, Lika, Kordun and Banija mostly is connected (genetically) with population of Herzegovina, while that is not the case with the genetic which is found in Montenegrin Brda and Zeta tribes (there is no even trace of that genetics among Krajina Serbs)...
^^
Around the middle on the link https://www.poreklo.rs/2021/03/04/ge...-pa-do-jadrana
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Serb from Bosnian Krajina (western Bosnia), surname Cvijetić.
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I think I think I found a good fit for Serbs and other contemporary Balkanites, but I had to use both ancient and model samples as a referrence, partially because of a lack of samples and partially because of my own ignorance. I don't think there's a better proxy for ancient Anatolians than the Cappadocian Greek average, since the one Anatolian Iron Age sample we have seems to be partially contaminated because it exibits both Siberian and SSA admix.
I'm also hoping some of you can help me choose a better Germanic referrence than just "Swedish". I'm not knowledgable enough about early Germanic samples to choose one myself. Anyhow here are the referrences I used:
I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp,34.15,12.62,23.19, 10.39,15.71,3.56,0.00,0.00,0.38,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.0 0
Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a,25.54,45.76, 13.11,4.08,6.15,0.53,0.00,0.00,2.60,1.08,0.58,0.53 ,0.00
I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp,24.62,3.48,30.00,9.21,2 8.33,4.36,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
Swedish,48.45,30.99,9.81,3.64,2.43,0.84,1.41,0.21, 0.68,0.56,0.40,0.32,0.23
I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp,35.39,15.41 ,20.83,5.13,15.56,2.99,3.06,0.00,0.00,0.00,1.61,0. 00,0.00
Greek_Cappadocian,6.83,3.81,18.16,27.6,36.59,4.92, 0.94,0.03,0.64,0.03,0.4,0,0
As you can see the distances are all surprisingly small:
Target: Serb
Distance: 1.2397% / 1.23970346
54.1 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
19.1 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
16.7 Greek_Cappadocian
9.9 Swedish
0.2 I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp
Target: Croat
Distance: 1.3382% / 1.33819950
55.5 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
21.1 Swedish
12.9 Greek_Cappadocian
10.5 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
Target: Bosniak
Distance: 1.5313% / 1.53125045
59.9 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
18.5 Greek_Cappadocian
10.6 Swedish
8.2 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
2.8 I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp
Target: Bulgaria_average
Distance: 0.9040% / 0.90395350
43.7 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
28.2 Greek_Cappadocian
19.2 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
5.4 Swedish
3.5 I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp
Target: Albanian
Distance: 1.5700% / 1.56996676
46.2 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
32.0 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
20.9 Greek_Cappadocian
0.9 I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp
Target: Romania_average
Distance: 0.8768% / 0.87681774
46.5 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
23.5 Greek_Cappadocian
15.5 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
8.0 I5759_Switzerland_Bell_Beaker_4178_ybp
6.5 Swedish
Target: Macedonian
Distance: 1.4327% / 1.43270258
38.6 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
35.6 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
22.3 Greek_Cappadocian
3.5 Swedish
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Greece_MBA_Log04 from Middle Bronze Age is closest to Macedonian Average, I think you need Middle/Late Bronze Age samples for some ethnicities to be modeled?
Also I see always funny to modeling some ethnicity with samples with period difference of 800-1000 years? And Sungir6 have at least 30% Paleo-Balkanic admix.
Top3 ancient closest.
Distance to: Bulgaria_average
9.20534084 STR310_Germany_Early_Medieval.SG_1430_ybp
9.22154542 Greece_MBA_Log04
10.16290805 DA195_Hungary_Scythian.SG_2553_ybp
Distance to: Albanian
5.55896573 R970_Lazio_Rome_Renaissance_Italy
7.03147211 MJ12_Thraco_Kimmerian_
7.04935458 scy192_SG_Moldova_Scythian_SG
Distance to: Serb
9.12531095 DA195_Hungary_Scythian.SG_2553_ybp
9.94155923 MJ37_Chernyakhov_2430386_AD_
10.26049219 AED513_Germany_Early_Medieval.SG_1528_ybp
Distance to: Macedonian
8.03522868 Greece_MBA_Log04
8.29669211 SZ1.SG_longobard_hungary
8.48892219 SZ1_Hungary_BA.SG_3950_ybp
Better distance for all with DA195 ( I think is main IronAge sample for Serbs ) and Log2 / Log4 ;
Target: Bulgarian
Distance: 0.8720% / 0.87202288
41.8 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
27.0 Greek_Cappadocian
13.2 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
12.6 Greece_MBA_Log02
5.4 Swedish
Target: Albanian
Distance: 1.4496% / 1.44958882
32.6 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
28.0 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
19.8 Greek_Cappadocian
19.6 Greece_MBA_Log02
Target: Macedonian
Distance: 1.2430% / 1.24304131
33.8 Greece_MBA_Log02
32.4 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
20.1 Greek_Cappadocian
13.7 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
Target: Serb
Distance: 0.9697% / 0.96968359
44.8 Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2aI2a
29.3 DA195_Hungary_Scythian.SG_2553_ybp
14.5 Greek_Cappadocian
8.1 I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp
2.6 Swedish
0.7 MJ12_Thraco_Kimmerian_
Last edited by JohnnyP; 03-20-2021 at 01:04 AM.
Target: johnnyp_scaled
Distance: 1.7117% / 0.01711654 | R3P
49.6 Ancient-Macedonian
27.2 Illyrian
23.2 Balto-Slavic_IA
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^^^Sunghir has 0% Paleo Balkan admix, idk from where you got that weird idea. It was found east of Moscow and is pretty pure Slavic sample.
Decent model Commonsense, except that Norwegians would be better Germanic proxy than Swedes. Medieval Germanic samples consistently come close to them.
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Here is model I'm currently using (ancient samples selected by Vbnethkio plus modern Germanic averages from southern Scandinavia).
I find his selection extraordinary good because he dropped obviously mixed early Slavic samples from Czech Republic for example.
Fit will be outstanding for almost everyone due to sheer volume of samples. Romanians and Moldovans would probably require some extra Turkic samples though.Code:Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I2175_Bulgaria_EBA_5122_ybp,25.65,9.85,35.91,0,25.77,1.7,0,0,0,0,0,1.11,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I2176_Bulgaria_EBA_published_5132_ybp,24.99,12.62,32.15,0,26.93,2.15,0,0,0.01,0.88,0,0.26,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I4332_Croatia_MBA_3516_ybp,30.68,13,27.73,10.03,16.07,0.6,0,1.05,0,0.21,0,0,0.64 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:Bul6_Bulgaria_Beli_Breyag_EBA_4450_ybp,22.05,11.26,35.23,0.72,25.07,5.42,0,0,0,0,0.25,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I2165_Bulgaria_EBA_4908_ybp,30.55,21.81,20.01,8.06,12.49,5.56,0,0,0,0.17,1.35,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I5769_Bulgaria_IA_2600_ybp,24.62,3.48,30,9.21,28.33,4.36,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I2520_Bulgaria_EBA_5132_ybp,23.15,16.12,30.59,0.13,25.02,3.53,0,0.35,0,0,1.12,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I3313_Croatia_Early_IA_2733_ybp,34.15,12.62,23.19,10.39,15.71,3.56,0,0,0.38,0,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:I4331_Croatia_MBA_3526_ybp,33.68,12.02,24.41,7.67,19.6,1.39,0,0,0,1.23,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R132_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,13.49,0,24.28,1.26,35.08,12.33,0,1.72,0.41,0,0.6,8.28,2.57 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R80_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,15.29,0.52,23.55,5.43,37.6,11.68,0,0.2,0,0,0.26,4.42,1.06 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R42_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,0.53,0,15.4,20.48,43.2,14.76,1.31,1.03,0,0,0,3.29,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1547_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,1.97,0,17.54,19.13,43.1,13.27,2.48,0,0,0,0,2.51,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1550_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,2.93,0,17.45,22.44,37.8,13.78,2.1,0.71,0,0.02,0.31,2.45,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R41_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,8.7,0,21.47,17.49,39.58,7.59,0.39,1.94,0,0.76,0.14,1.91,0.03 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R67_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,1.11,0.88,12.12,32.7,36.78,9.27,3.73,0.37,0,0.32,0.39,1.9,0.44 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R45_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,12.66,2.53,24.25,10.61,36.68,8.16,0,1.14,0,0,1.4,1.69,0.89 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R70_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,3.21,2.28,19.34,21.39,41.91,10.3,0,0,0,0.19,0,1.38,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R75_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,8.62,0,22.68,21.74,35.29,9.37,0,0.37,0,0.21,0.47,1.25,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R73_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,11.96,1.16,19.72,17.3,34.38,11.41,2.22,0.01,0.03,0.19,0,1.21,0.41 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R68_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,2.31,0,13.79,30.08,39.44,10.13,3.04,0,0,0,0,1.07,0.14 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1549_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,22.71,9.87,15.99,12.66,27.94,6.69,0.86,1.18,0,0,1.29,0.81,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R76_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,3.62,3.3,16.77,23.96,38.85,10.18,1.73,0,0,0.82,0,0.77,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R47_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,17.98,5.83,21.98,16.85,28.76,6.43,0,0,0.29,0.72,0.51,0.64,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1543_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,16.86,0.47,16.98,14.67,40.12,7.56,1.33,1.13,0,0.31,0,0.57,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R49_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,16.25,8.08,21.47,16.31,31.17,4.53,0,0,0,0.2,1.31,0.53,0.15 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R115_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,8.94,4.56,21.96,20.12,34.47,7.02,1.72,0.93,0,0,0,0.26,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R125_Lazio_Frosinone_Roman_Imperial,15.24,4.84,25.65,22.02,27.75,3.78,0,0,0,0,0.54,0.18,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1548_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,13.7,7.83,17.2,21.18,31.85,6.18,0.1,0,1.17,0,0.7,0.07,0.01 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R835_Marche_Roman_Imperial,17.48,7.33,22.76,15.83,28.17,4.29,2.11,0,0,0.18,0.49,0,1.37 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R50_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,12.8,5.92,19.69,18.96,31.66,8.21,1.77,0.13,0,0,0,0,0.87 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R126_Lazio_Frosinone_Roman_Imperial,6.85,0,21.95,22.6,37.03,8.91,0.98,0.75,0,0,0.22,0,0.71 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R131_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,18.55,6.06,22.93,13.3,31.22,5.99,0,1.15,0,0.4,0,0,0.4 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R38_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,1.92,0,18.71,28.11,41.51,8.68,0,0,0,0.45,0.34,0,0.28 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R40_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,14.72,0,23,19.52,36.2,5.66,0,0.47,0.15,0,0,0,0.27 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R111_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,25.73,7.27,26.59,13.06,25.7,1.65,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R113_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,25.73,4.01,26.05,11.36,28.27,3.92,0,0,0,0.46,0.2,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R114_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,17.19,6.78,18.04,19.02,29.56,7.35,0.58,0.77,0,0.7,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R123_Lazio_Frosinone_Roman_Imperial,12.03,4.13,19.45,20.54,37.07,3.99,0,0.97,0,0,1.83,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R128_Lazio_Frosinone_Roman_Imperial,2.63,8.5,21.08,27.13,34.24,5.03,0,0,0,0.84,0.55,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1544_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,16.53,4.64,21.39,18.62,31.87,3.82,1.51,0,0.43,0.3,0.89,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1545_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,10.35,3.4,22.3,23.93,31.78,7.44,0.06,0,0,0,0.73,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R1551_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,5.31,0,12.6,36.12,34.89,8.22,2.15,0.72,0,0,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R39_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,9.38,2.57,24.97,19.78,34.82,5.66,0,1.74,0.29,0.78,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R43_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,12.19,0,22.2,21.83,39.45,3.15,0.45,0,0,0.08,0.65,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R44_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,14.45,0,23.48,18.04,38.86,5.16,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R51_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,20.47,1.28,20.11,15.05,34.89,5.56,0,0.17,0,0.59,1.88,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R66_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,7.81,1.07,23.57,24.26,37.48,4.96,0,0,0,0,0.85,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R69_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,12.48,4.41,24.55,22.98,33.7,0.54,0,0.59,0,0.5,0.25,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R71_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,6.09,0.06,20.33,24.54,44.64,3.4,0,0,0,0,0.94,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R72_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,10.24,0,22.92,19.04,41.2,5.12,0,0,0.57,0,0.91,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R78_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,5.76,2.77,22.82,22.14,43.72,2.03,0,0.1,0,0.27,0.39,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R81_Lazio_Rome_Roman_Imperial,11.54,2.43,22.21,17.14,39.17,4.79,1.98,0,0,0,0.74,0,0 Paleo_Balkan_&_Roman:R836_Marche_Roman_Imperial,17.9,4.35,25.43,19.62,29.98,1.61,0,0,0,0.28,0.83,0,0 Slavic:AV2_Hungary_Avar_daughter.or.mother.AV1_1356_ybp,30.22,47.46,11.05,4.34,3.01,0.41,0.55,0,1.56,0.94,0,0.46,0 Slavic:Sunghir6_Russia_Sunghir6.SG_790_ybp,25.17,45.83,13.05,4.29,6.41,0.44,0.00,0.03,2.59,1.13,0.64,0.42,0.00 Slavic:Ukraine_Lutsk_Medieval_VK541,23.15,43.28,11.70,7.62,7.79,1.05,1.58,0.00,1.18,0.56,0.79,0.00,1.29 Slavic:Ukraine_Chernigov_VikingAge_VK542,22.48,43.78,10.72,8.56,9.14,0.26,0.00,0.00,1.64,0.82,0.98,0.73,0.87 Slavic:Viking_Denmark_Langeland_VK287,27.47,45.26,8.62,7.09,7.54,0,1.5,0.79,1.13,0.21,0.21,0.16,0 Slavic:Viking_Poland_Cedynia_VK212,29.69,48.84,9.53,5.54,1.59,0,1.3,0,1.34,0,0.13,1.42,0.62 Slavic:Viking_Russia_Pskov_VK159,28.62,50.38,7.63,3.49,4.19,0,2.08,0,0,1.86,0.48,1.27,0 Slavic:Viking_Russia_Ladoga_VK19,34.33,39.57,9.56,6.08,4.86,0,0,1.29,0.94,1.44,0.09,0,1.85 Slavic:Viking_Russia_Gnezdovo_VK272,27.1,42.86,8.37,4.01,8.44,3.37,1.6,0,1.68,2.01,0,0,0.56 Slavic:Viking_Sweden_Gotland_VK454,25.59,45.53,14.97,2.7,4.74,0.3,0.73,2.49,0,0.34,1.21,1.4,0 Slavic:Ukraine_Lutsk_Medieval_VK541,23.15,43.28,11.7,7.62,7.79,1.05,1.58,0,1.18,0.56,0.79,0,1.29 Slavic:Ukraine_Chernigov_VikingAge_VK542,22.48,43.78,10.72,8.56,9.14,0.26,0,0,1.64,0.82,0.98,0.73,0.87 Slavic:KRA011_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,29.56,50.68,8.38,2.39,2.54,1.03,1.3,0.14,0,1.4,1.27,1.1,0.21 Slavic:KRA001_S-Anhalt_1100_AD,25.47,47.56,12.36,7.54,1.32,0,2.43,0.52,0.01,1.2,0.71,0.61,0.27 Slavic:VK494_Poland_Sandomierz,32.56,47.37,12.86,2.56,0,0,0.82,2.53,0.31,0.22,0,0.77,0 Slavic:VK466_Russia_Gnezdovo,25.85,43.15,9.22,12.82,0,0,2.34,0.15,0,2.09,1.69,0,2.69 Slavic:VK340_Denmark_Jutland,28.29,43.29,9.89,5.02,8.09,0,3.75,0,0.44,0.1,0,1.12,0 Germanic:Denmark,50.61,28.70,10.19,5.00,2.12,0.52,0.99,0.19,0.42,0.59,0.23,0.12,0.17 Germanic:Norway_South_Central,50.83,28.97,9.61,4.78,1.91,0.62,0.94,0.11,0.63,0.68,0.56,0.13,0.23 Germanic:Norwegian,51.14,28.61,9.91,5.60,1.73,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.64,0.91,0.15,0.01,0.10 Germanic:Sweden_Götaland,50.53,29.29,9.86,4.67,1.88,0.62,0.93,0.21,0.69,0.55,0.41,0.18,0.2
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I included Swedish because Slavs and this part of the world in general had more contact with Eastern Germanics who are accroding to tradition from Gotland. So I thought they'd have been more like Swedes than Norwegians. And I agree about the Sungir sample. It's well with the modern East Slavic range:
Target: Sungir6_Early_Medieval_Russian_I2a_I2a_
Distance: 2.4466% / 2.44663205 | R2P
91.2 Belarusian_Minsk
8.8 Italian_Sardinia
Unlike the two "Avar" samples, one of which does seem to have some kind of southern admix, while the other one has Celto-Germanic. The early Czech sample is likewise admixed and akin to modern Czechs, so that one should also be avoided when making population models such as this one.
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