Originally Posted by
IberianAlex
Hmm, well. I would say they are finding their feet as an independent actor instead of limiting themselves to the role of a prospective EU member, something which had been promised back in the heydays of EU expansion after the fall of the Wall but which has become increasing unrealistic with the political developments towards nationalism in Europe and Islamism in Turkey.
What makes Turkey interesting to study is that it is the only economic titan in the region whose economy is not dependent on oil. Meanwhile, Iran and Saudi Arabia are still petro economies despite years of trying to change that, Turkey's economy, in comparison, is far less vulnerable to price shocks and war. Turkish forces have fought wars in recent years and have demonstrated competence but not brilliance. What sets them apart from all the other countries in the Balkans and Middle East, however, is their ability to muster sheer numbers of advanced, modern equipment in the hands of competent soldiers and officers. Nobody else comes close to having all three components.
In this respect Turkey is one of the last standalone militaries in the world, the others being the US, Russia, China, Japan, and India. By that, I mean a military which has large numbers of modern equipment in all major categories (the least common of which worldwide are MBTs and multirole fighters), competence in using it, and the ability to supply most of it domestically (although Turkey is not anywhere close to supplying their armies domestically, most of their inventory of serious hardware is western built) those competencies are very valuable, and essentially mean that only that short list of countries are able to fight protracted conventional wars by themselves. None of the other standalone militaries are close to Turkey, which means that nobody in Turkey's vicinity could come close to defeating them in a conflict. Even those with higher quality forces (Israel, for example) don't have the means to replenish their equipment and munitions, nor the sheer mass required to resist indefinitely. Historically, most defeats in modern war are due to shortages of supplies, parts, and modern equipment, not brilliant tactics.
Their major issue currently is that Turkey has a debt mountain, and have scared away all investors. The banks and investors have lost faith in this regime, they are not willing to keep the rotten economy floating, and the lira is failing. Turkey used to give out 13+% interest, issue is this brings in hot foreign exchange, but it is unnatural. People are not investing because "oh, Turkey seems cool", they invest because "oh, look at the interest". So, compared to, lets say, South Korea (which had a similar development curve with Turkey) investors there didn't even pull back after NK was hassling them, in Turkey they will pull back after any political crisis, as the investment is not tied to any long term shit.
Also, there is the whole thing about having a nationalist, authoritarian leader who likes to stoke national pride by telling his people lies. The only "rise" in power they have experienced recently is that the world is getting more multipolar so Turkey can try to play off different players. At the same time Russia, Iran and the civil wars on its borders pose greater security concerns.
(Source: My best friend is Turkish and we stay up until four in the morning, high, talking about this geopolitical stuff, hahahaha)
Türkiye
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