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Thread: Opposition to independence for Wales falls to its lowest-ever level

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    Default Opposition to independence for Wales falls to its lowest-ever level

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/p...-vote-19924204

    A YouGov poll for WalesOnline shows that the proportion of people saying they would definitely oppose independence is now just 50%



    Opposition to Welsh independence has fallen to its lowest ever level, with half of people now saying they would vote No in a referendum on the issue.

    WalesOnline's exclusive St David's Day poll from YouGov shows that 50% of people say they would definitely oppose independence in a national vote on the issue.

    Our poll shows the continuation of the growth in support for the independence movement, which has seen consistent growth since the Brexit referendum.

    While active support for independence remains at the 25% high watermark recorded in polling throughout the pandemic, the proportion answering "don't know" has swelled to 14% - adding to the swelling uncertainty about the future of the UK.

    Among those giving a definitive answer, 33% say they would vote Yes on independence for Wales, while 67% say they would vote no.

    What did the figures show?

    In answer to the question "If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote?", 25% said they would answer yes, 50% said no, 9% said they would not vote, and 14% said they didn't know, with a further 2% refusing to answer.

    The figure of 50% of those polled saying they would vote against independence is the lowest level seen in polls where this question has been asked.

    A YouGov poll of 2014 put the figure at 70%, dropping to 65% straight after the EU referendum in 2016, most of the polls in 2019 put the "no" level at around 57% with a series of polls since the crisis putting it in the low 50s at between 52-54%.

    The percentage of people who would vote "yes" to independence was fairly consistent with other recent polls.

    Beneath the headline data there was also differences in attitudes to independence with on age, previous voting location in Wales all having an impact on people's propensity to support independence.

    Age

    The younger people are, the more likely they were to support independence with 40% of 16-14 year olds saying they would vote yes if there was a referendum on Welsh independence tomorrow. This falls to just 15% in over 65s.

    Area of Wales

    The part of Wales with the highest levels of support for independence was the Cardiff region with 34% of those polled indicating they would vote yes. The north of Wales was the most sceptical with just 17 indicating support. The poll did not differentiate between north east and north west Wales.

    Previous voting

    People who voted Plaid Cymru in the last general election were massively in favour of independence with 62% supporting independence. Conservative voters skewed the other way with just 8% supporting it. Previous Labour voters seemed far more on the fence with 38% saying yes and 39% saying no.

    EU referendum

    A split was also seen based on how people voted in 2016 referendum on EU membership with leave voters 18 percentage points more likely to vote against independence than remain.

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    I saw a lot of 'Yes Cymru' posters when I was in the Lleyn Peninsula on hols last summer.

    Tbh how Wales can be independent on what is already a small island, and indeed, the idea any country can be independent, in the common parlance, the 21st century in any case doesnt make sense.

    What actually is 'independence' for Wales? Noone ever seems to provide any explanation of what it is and what it means. All you get are comments like 'seat at the top table' and various bureaucrats having the opportunity to wander around Brussels having meetings. It could be argued that Wales is more independent now than it would be if it was independent member of the EU

    Current quest for Yes Cymru is a kind of a weird medievalist inspired grievance applied to liberal pro EU stuff, like a square peg in a round hole.

    Anyway Wales voted for Brexit unlike Scotland so the being 'dragged out' of a supranational bureacracy as an argument for independence can't be used.

    Wales is a proud nation with its own language, culture, flag, parliament, sports teams and well known throughout the world.

    The problem is London and the south east have dominated way too long, some regions or England have more in common with Scotland or Wales than they do with London.

    My suggestion would be greater devolution on a regional basis, with issues like revenue generation and defence centred as UK issues. Arguably this is already the case anyway, but maybe they should have a referendum and settle it

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    As with Scotland (though on a lesser scale), Wales has stayed left-leaning whereas England has become more right-leaning over the years. That's certainly one of the drivers of this growing feeling.

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    I am certain most majority ethnicities within multinational countries (as the UK) will always show more reluctance when a minority ethnicity within that country would want to breakaway into their own independent country. But I am of the opinion that when there is a long history of continuity in a given territory of a specific ethnicity, which happens to be a minority within a country, however majority on that historically and culturally specific territory, such desires of independence should be decided in a fully democratic referendum. No countries and borders are fixed forever, they always changed and will always change through history according to demographic changes. So rather than completely dismiss such goals and be close-minded about it, let the people there decide what they want with their future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tooting Carmen View Post
    As with Scotland (though on a lesser scale), Wales has stayed left-leaning whereas England has become more right-leaning over the years. That's certainly one of the drivers of this growing feeling.

    Because the Scottish National Party did so much damage to Labour. It feels like the Scottish Labour party has drained much of its left wing and is now a weird sort of centralist Tory light party.

    Welsh Labour seem to stick up for Wales a bit more and going on to win another election this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Graham View Post
    Because the Scottish National Party did so much damage to Labour. It feels like the Scottish Labour party has drained much of its left wing and is now a weird sort of centralist Tory light party.

    Welsh Labour seem to stick up for Wales a bit more and going on to win another election this year.
    Nah, Labour has always been much more favourable towards Scotland than Wales - look at how many Scots there were in the cabinet during the Blair years compared to how few Welsh there were.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tooting Carmen View Post
    Nah, Labour has always been much more favourable towards Scotland than Wales - look at how many Scots there were in the cabinet during the Blair years compared to how few Welsh there were.
    I meant Welsh Labour rather than the London HQ.

    The Blair years were there only because Labour thinks it needs to win middle England as its priority. Same thing today with Starmer after Corbyn.

    We'd have stuck with old Labour, not arguing that would be better or not.

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    I would love Wales to independent except for the fact that I know EUist retards would run the nation to ground even more then the welsh parliament already is

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