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The new samples from the Tarim basin are anything but Indo-European speakers. They have a very archaic, native autosomal profile, with 81-84% ANE, no EEF, no CHG and no WHG. In contrast the samples from Dzungaria have recent Indo-European origins, in fact they have considerably less ANE (55-58%), more EEF (6-8%), considerably more CHG (18-24%) and WHG (2-6%). Both populations have some Eastern Eurasian admixture.
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Yes, but not sure if these Tarim mummies are the same Tarim mummies that i'm referring to. The Tarim mummies don't represent a single continuous population, after 1000BC most of the mummies were Mongoloid for example. These newly sequenced ones are dated to 2100-1700 and are uniformly R1b xL754, while the R1a and light-haired ones that people commonly post online were later (the Cherchen man, for example, is dated to 1000BC), so it could be that the former, extremely WSHG population was replaced by presumably Andronovo newcomers later on (thus the lack of R1b in the later, blond mummies).
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What is the chance that all of the 11 R1a (out of 12 samples) assignments were wrong? But if Davidski says that they could be, i will give it the benefit of doubt since the guy is a haplogroup nerd. If the R1a assignments turn out to be wrong then it will be much easier to argue for a Tocharian origin of these mummies.
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I think that whe should remember that Pre-Uyghur Tarim Basin people were actually of two different Indo-European sources. First migrants who got there were descended from Andronovo culture. They were probably Iranian language speakers, had mostly R1a haplogroup, and phenotypically resembled Andronovo people, so rather light pigmented at about 60% percentage.
Second immigrants that you describe, were the Tocharians proper, who actually came to Tarim Basin later and were probably descended from Afanasievo culture. More resembling original Yamnaya type, they had mostly R1b haplogroup. They assimilated Iranian peoples and were later themselves conquered and assimilated by Uyghur tribes. "Scottish grandfather" theory is a big LOL of course, but Andronovo people did have EEF and WHG influence (they were Corded Ware offshoot), this explains lightness.
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Does anyone know what this Afanasievo sample looked like? I've seen it in an ancient calculator run, and I'm wondering what modern populations it would be similar to.
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