Large-Scale Migration into Southern Britain During the Middle to Late Bronze Age

[Ezio Auditore]

My distances aren't high. It is 2.314. Your distances are much higher. I have used K13 and it just depends on the Vahaduo you use.

Target: Grace
Distance: 2.3148% / 2.31479278
54.3 Germanic
45.0 Insular_Celtic
0.7 Roman

I've done it again and get Roman this time instead of Balkanic. The first one I used was this one. It just puts the first figure in a percentage and the second figure as decimal. Your figures are 12.471 compared to mine which is 2.314.

https://vahaduo.github.io/vahaduo/

yes still my distance is high when i fixed it:

Target: Ezio
Distance: 7.8874% / 7.88743612
77.6 Gaulish
21.0 Roman
1.4 SSA

I am probably missing my amazigh, and iberian references and this is why...

[Ajeje Brazorf]

Did you use all the French IA2 samples from the Patterson's paper to make France IA average, only the French IA2 samples from Patterson's study or did you mix them up with the Brunel's IA samples?

I used the old plus the new ones, that is, the ones that are available on Global25's ancient sample spreadsheet.

FRA_Grand_Est_IA1:Jeb8___BC_500___Coverage_11.13%,0.119514,0.138112,0.056568,0.022933,0.046162,-0.003904,-0.00329,0.000692,0.014726,0.01057,-0.000325,0.009591,-0.023637,-0.009909,0.019408,0.0118,-0.000782,0.002407,0.001634,0.001,-0.011105,-0.002226,-0.013804,-0.002892,0.002994
FRA_Grand_Est_IA1:NOR2B6___BC_750___Coverage_14.03%,0.127482,0.150298,0.047894,0.009044,0.044624,0.002789,-0.015511,0.010153,0.018816,0.018588,0.012991,0.019183,-0.001784,-0.00812,0.013979,0.01538,0.026859,0.004054,0.004525,0.003627,-0.000499,-0.006925,-0.004807,-0.000241,-0.012214
FRA_Grand_Est_IA1:NOR3-6___BC_550___Coverage_12.85%,0.137726,0.152329,0.054305,0.047481,0.030467,0.021196,-0.005405,0,0.010022,0.003645,-0.003735,0.021881,-0.019177,-0.012524,0.024973,-0.008221,-0.024512,0.011782,0.001634,0.008504,0.002745,0.002597,-0.009244,-0.004338,-0.000239
FRA_Grand_Est_IA2:COL11___BC_340___Coverage_10.38%,0.125205,0.140143,0.060339,0.069768,0.033852,0.017012,-0.00329,0.003231,0.00634,0.005832,-0.001461,0.002997,-0.012042,0.001239,0.021851,-0.009679,-0.01343,-0.011149,0.005279,0.004502,0.007986,0.005441,0.014913,-0.00735,0.002036
FRA_Grand_Est_IA2:COL153A___BC_340___Coverage_12.15%,0.132035,0.158423,0.046763,0.032623,0.034468,0.008646,0.00705,0.011076,0.003068,0.020046,0.004547,-0.007643,-0.002081,-0.004266,0.007736,0.003182,-0.014473,0.00114,0.017723,0.005253,-0.019715,0.004575,-0.000246,-0.013616,0.004311
FRA_Grand_Est_IA2:ERS86___BC_250___Coverage_14.99%,0.127482,0.1635,0.041106,0.028101,0.043085,0.011156,-0.007285,0.002538,0.008795,0.010752,-0.001786,0.005995,-0.014123,0,0.007736,0.026518,-0.004172,0.011402,0.012821,-0.008129,0.000749,0.019166,-0.007272,-0.015183,-0.000359
FRA_Grand_Est_IA2:ERS1164___BC_250___Coverage_15.11%,0.124067,0.120848,0.053928,0.029393,0.033852,0.013666,0.00846,0.006923,-0.00409,0.014397,-0.00341,-0.009292,-0.009514,-0.016515,0.010179,0.008884,-0.002999,0.003421,0,-0.002626,-0.009608,0.003091,0.005053,-0.012893,0.005628
FRA_Grand_Est_LBA:NIED___BC_875___Coverage_10.51%,0.126344,0.127957,0.05506,0.014212,0.048009,0.014223,-0.00282,0.006461,0.021475,0.046652,-0.014777,0.009741,-0.03107,-0.038259,-0.00285,0.00716,0.007562,-0.007095,0.014832,0.011005,0.003119,0.011376,-0.001602,-0.013737,-0.003712
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I19356___BC_250___Coverage_74.18%,0.130897,0.126941,0.056945,0.037468,0.04647,0.007809,0.003995,0.007615,-0.001432,0.008018,-0.005196,0.005245,-0.011744,-0.010322,0.0095,-0.004508,-0.002347,-0.003927,0.006285,0.005253,-0.003119,-0.003091,0.003451,-0.004579,-0.003353
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I19357___BC_250___Coverage_77.18%,0.130897,0.139128,0.061848,0.051034,0.051702,0.004462,0.005875,0.008769,0.008385,0.012757,-0.003248,0.003897,-0.008474,-0.006331,0.022937,-0.004243,-0.019818,0.004561,-0.00264,0.000875,0.01435,0.010634,-0.003328,0.00012,-0.00012
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I19358___BC_250___Coverage_20.21%,0.129758,0.135065,0.047894,0.034561,0.045239,0.016733,0.012456,0,0.011862,0.00893,0.013803,0.009292,-0.009366,-0.00523,0.010993,-0.008618,-0.022817,-0.00152,-0.001383,-0.006378,0.006738,0.002844,-0.000863,0.003735,0.001437
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I19362___BC_250___Coverage_28.42%,0.134311,0.135065,0.063733,0.049096,0.029852,0.010319,0.0047,0.007615,-0.001023,0.004556,-0.003085,0.005245,-0.009217,-0.008395,0.018594,-0.002917,-0.00352,0.005574,0.007416,0.007379,-0.00025,0.007172,0.003081,-0.000361,-0.006586
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I20815___BC_250___Coverage_36.99%,0.126344,0.146236,0.056191,0.031977,0.059396,0.009203,0.00611,0.006692,0.013294,0.01385,-0.01023,0.017235,-0.00773,-0.003165,0.014929,-0.015778,-0.020992,0.004687,0.005908,-0.003627,0.007736,0.006554,-0.011462,0.000361,-0.009221
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I20817___BC_250___Coverage_70.25%,0.130897,0.13405,0.058077,0.043282,0.037853,0.021753,0.005405,-0.000462,0.006954,0.004738,-0.008282,0.007343,-0.01219,-0.012799,0.022937,-0.007292,-0.015646,0.004434,0,0.010505,0.009608,0.006059,0.008381,0.008676,0.005748
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I20827___BC_250___Coverage_42.75%,0.125205,0.140143,0.056191,0.026163,0.051086,0.00753,0.01081,0.001385,0.00859,0.02041,-0.004384,0.004496,-0.022299,-0.007432,0.004614,0.013392,-0.006519,0.00266,0.010056,0.000625,0.000873,0.000866,0.003328,-0.003856,-0.004431
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I21399___BC_250___Coverage_61.06%,0.124067,0.144205,0.054305,0.027132,0.056318,0.006693,0.002115,0.002769,0.021475,0.023691,-0.004872,0.008992,-0.019623,-0.007707,0.009908,0.001193,-0.001173,0.004054,-0.004148,-0.002126,0.005366,0.009398,-0.009613,-0.004579,-0.003113
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I21402___BC_250___Coverage_72.87%,0.12862,0.136081,0.065996,0.032946,0.045239,0.000279,-0.001645,0.000692,0.019021,0.021322,-0.001786,0.004496,-0.011298,-0.00578,0.008822,0.003315,-0.00326,-0.003041,-2.01E-03,5.00E-04,0.007986,-0.002473,0.006039,-0.003976,0.004071
FRA_GrandEst_IA2:I21931___BC_250___Coverage_25.66%,0.121791,0.127957,0.058454,0.028424,0.045239,0.016455,-0.00047,-0.005538,0.005931,0.010387,-0.00065,-0.005095,-0.013677,-0.012386,0.011943,-0.007823,-0.007693,0.003041,0.003645,-0.015257,0.000499,0.002102,-0.007765,-0.006145,-0.000958
FRA_GrandEst_IA2_low_res:I19359___BC_250___Coverage_5.29%,0.138864,0.137096,0.05506,0.022933,0.026466,0.011713,-0.00047,-0.000923,0.026588,0.004374,0.001299,-0.007343,0.001338,-0.014175,0.005022,0.02148,-0.034161,-0.000253,-0.000126,0.000375,-0.007986,-0.012736,0.00456,-0.006507,-0.006466
FRA_Hauts_De_France_IA2:BFM265___BC_225___Coverage_15.27%,0.12862,0.149283,0.053174,0.031654,0.050163,0.014781,0.001645,-0.004615,0.01268,0.01057,-0.008444,0.009142,-0.018583,-0.007432,0.019137,-0.003315,-0.014081,0.014316,0.009176,0.002001,0.001622,-0.000866,0.002465,0.000964,0.000718
FRA_Occitanie_IA2:BES1248___BC_500___Coverage_12.05%,0.130897,0.127957,0.066373,0.043282,0.0437,0.027331,0.009165,0.002769,-0.000205,0.007654,0.015752,0.014987,-0.01115,-0.006055,0.015201,-0.004641,-0.001565,0.007601,-0.013324,0.005503,0.023583,-0.003957,-0.017624,0.006627,-0.008502
FRA_Occitanie_IA2:PECH8___BC_450___Coverage_12.55%,0.121791,0.137096,0.063733,-0.003553,0.05601,-0.007251,-0.012456,-0.003,0.026384,0.051026,0.000487,0.003297,-0.036868,-0.006744,0.008415,-0.000663,0.007953,-0.007221,0.008925,-0.003752,0.007612,0.006677,-0.018734,-0.020485,-0.006466
FRA_Occitanie_IA2:PEY53___BC_300___Coverage_11.78%,0.136588,0.137096,0.046009,0.038114,0.052933,0.011992,-0.008225,-0.005538,0.011044,0.005832,-0.001786,0.016785,-0.016501,-0.010872,0.030266,-0.001724,-0.008866,0.005448,0.002263,-0.008504,0.010981,0.008656,-0.013311,-0.004338,0.015927
FRA_Occitanie_IA2:PEY163___BC_300___Coverage_10.14%,0.130897,0.141159,0.056568,0.010013,0.049855,0.016733,0.00282,-0.006923,0.033951,0.035354,-0.007145,0.001948,-0.01888,-0.017891,0.011672,0.025457,0.015125,0.02027,-0.015461,-0.025262,-0.002371,-0.001237,0.010476,-0.005543,-0.000958
FRA_SouthEast_IA2:I13620___BC_300___Coverage_17.51%,0.129758,0.13405,0.059962,0.011305,0.044931,0.013945,0.004465,0.003692,0.018407,0.032256,-0.008282,0.012739,-0.020515,-0.001514,0.011808,-0.005834,-0.024382,0.017103,0.011061,0.000125,0.005615,-0.004451,-0.006039,0.00723,-0.005269
FRA_SouthEast_IA2:I13623___BC_300___Coverage_23.22%,0.129758,0.151314,0.064111,0.011951,0.048932,-0.017849,-0.008695,0.007846,0.018816,0.042279,-0.003573,0.014537,-0.022596,-0.016652,0.010315,0.005701,0.007432,-0.002787,-0.001634,0.01113,0.003619,0.01051,0.007025,-0.000723,-0.00455
FRA_SouthEast_IA2:I19916___BC_300___Coverage_67.85%,0.132035,0.145221,0.065619,0.01938,0.051394,0.004462,-0.001645,0.003231,0.019839,0.029887,-0.000162,0.009741,-0.00996,-0.018441,0.004207,0.003713,0.010691,-0.000127,-0.008045,-0.000125,0.005865,0.001855,-0.010353,-0.006868,-0.011137
FRA_SouthEast_IA2:I19917___BC_300___Coverage_65.28%,0.125205,0.153345,0.061094,0.010659,0.041238,-0.000279,0.005875,0.002308,0.01718,0.033714,0.000162,0.012739,-0.02111,-0.002752,0.016694,0.000928,-0.004563,0.001394,0.002011,-0.006003,-0.004991,0.002473,0.000739,-0.005663,0.00455
FRA_SouthEast_IA2:I19918___BC_300___Coverage_62.63%,0.120652,0.148267,0.053928,0.016473,0.044316,0.000279,0.003995,0.002308,0.017998,0.037358,0.002273,0.015586,-0.026759,-0.021744,0.008822,0.000928,-0.006519,-0.000127,0.008045,-0.003627,0.001622,0.004451,-0.012571,0.00012,0.002155

Average of all samples above

FRA_IA,0.128541621,0.140633276,0.056594069,0.028546517,0.044581069,0.009030241,0.000818414,0.00247469,0.012927276,0.018946379,-0.001562241,0.007508862,-0.015194138,-0.010074931,0.013094759,0.002199138,-0.006298897,0.003175931,0.00291269,-0.000250138,0.002366552,0.003052931,-0.002728517,-0.004001379,-0.001313069

Average of South France samples (Occitanie, SouthEast)

FRA_South_IA,0.128620111,0.141722778,0.059710778,0.017513778,0.048145444,0.005484778,-0.000522333,0.000743667,0.018157111,0.030595556,-0.000252667,0.011373222,-0.020482111,-0.011407222,0.013044444,0.002651667,-0.000521556,0.004617111,-0.000684333,-0.003390556,0.005726111,0.002775222,-0.006710222,-0.003293667,-0.001583333

Average of North France samples (Hauts de France, GrandEst)

FRA_North_IA,0.128620105,0.140784368,0.055198474,0.034527,0.042712263,0.010436368,0.001645,0.003084842,0.010000105,0.011970158,-0.001487053,0.005560895,-0.011853737,-0.007960474,0.013957789,0.001723684,-0.009765053,0.003033842,0.003989211,0.000645053,0.000735579,0.002746421,-0.000901737,-0.003824211,-0.001058789

Last question; do you think it would make a difference?

The main problem is that sample coverage is pretty shitty, what you are about to see below are averages, but made only with samples with coverage greater than 23%.

FRA_GrandEst_IA2,0.1282787,0.1364871,0.0579634,0.0362083,0.0468394,0.0101236,0.0049351,0.0029537,0.0093057,0.0128659,-0.002793,0.0061146,-0.0125618,-0.0079547,0.0135177,-0.0033279,-0.0103785,0.0020523,0.0023129,-0.0002251,0.0049787,0.0040065,-0.0008751,-0.0010604,-0.0016526
FRA_SouthEast_IA2,0.1269125,0.14953675,0.061188,0.01461575,0.04647,-0.00334675,-0.0001175,0.00392325,0.01845825,0.0358095,-0.000325,0.01315075,-0.02010625,-0.01489725,0.0100095,0.0028175,0.00176025,-0.00041175,9.425E-05,0.00034375,0.00152875,0.00482225,-0.00379,-0.0032835,-0.0022455

[Ajeje Brazorf]

The average below, on the other hand, consists of 244 ancient samples from England, dated between 662 BC and 226 AD and with coverage at least higher than 23%.

England_IA,0.129338492,0.135044578,0.060620611,0.046992529,0.039762672,0.01626025,0.00253975,0.004535734,0.007257217,0.006301348,-0.004834508,0.006446139,-0.015074443,-0.014870615,0.021278619,0.006059992,-0.00585393,0.001578922,0.001392918,0.003102902,0.005560369,0.00365693,-0.002250283,0.005456922,-0.000703258
Scotland_IA,0.130177737,0.131430895,0.062423526,0.057732,0.034548895,0.021357263,0.003364316,0.005720368,0.002422,0.000508316,-0.004213579,0.006641421,-0.014263632,-0.015268895,0.025208263,0.005827,-0.013429526,0.001500211,0.000899789,0.004719421,0.006619895,0.004497,-0.000895316,0.007166421,-0.000296158

In this PCA the Germanic pull of modern-day English compared to IA is more evident

[J.S.]

I used the old plus the new ones, that is, the ones that are available on Global25's ancient sample spreadsheet.

Great, thank you very much! I hope we will soon have much more samples from all over the country with good coverage but, yet, the PCA plots are very coherent.

[Creoda]

The average below, on the other hand, consists of 244 ancient samples from England, dated between 662 BC and 226 AD and with coverage at least higher than 23%.

England_IA,0.129338492,0.135044578,0.060620611,0.046992529,0.039762672,0.01626025,0.00253975,0.004535734,0.007257217,0.006301348,-0.004834508,0.006446139,-0.015074443,-0.014870615,0.021278619,0.006059992,-0.00585393,0.001578922,0.001392918,0.003102902,0.005560369,0.00365693,-0.002250283,0.005456922,-0.000703258

In this PCA the Germanic pull of modern-day English compared to IA is more evident

The English G25 average is also Celtic shifted compared to reality. It should be on a cline between Scottish/Irish and German there.

[J.S.]

The average below, on the other hand, consists of 244 ancient samples from England, dated between 662 BC and 226 AD and with coverage at least higher than 23%.

England_IA,0.129338492,0.135044578,0.060620611,0.046992529,0.039762672,0.01626025,0.00253975,0.004535734,0.007257217,0.006301348,-0.004834508,0.006446139,-0.015074443,-0.014870615,0.021278619,0.006059992,-0.00585393,0.001578922,0.001392918,0.003102902,0.005560369,0.00365693,-0.002250283,0.005456922,-0.000703258

In this PCA the Germanic pull of modern-day English compared to IA is more evident

English aver very lucky...244 samples with pretty high coverage for most of them.

[Peterski]

English are very lucky...244 samples with pretty high coverage for most of them.

Yes they are! Poland is late to the party but maybe this year there will be published at least 150 Polish Iron Age samples, at least 550 Polish Medieval, and 22 royal samples from members of the Piast Dynasty.

[J.S.]

Yes they are! Poland is late to the party but maybe this year there will be published at least 150 Polish Iron Age samples, at least 550 Polish Medieval samples, and 22 samples from members of the Piast Dynasty.

Holly s***...can't believe it...

[Peterski]

Holly s***...can't believe it...

This is what the professor who is in charge of Polish ancient DNA research replied in an email from 31.12.2021. He wrote "... oh yes very soon all of planned goals have been reached, currently we are at the stage of preparing two most important publications which will summarize the results of research...".

He also mentioned those numbers of samples (150 Iron Age, 550 Medieval, 22 Piasts).

But I prefer to mentally prepare for a long time of waiting, you know, just in case:

Spoiler!

[Ajeje Brazorf]

This is what the professor who is in charge of Polish ancient DNA research replied in an email from 31.12.2021. He wrote "... oh yes very soon all of planned goals have been reached, currently we are at the stage of preparing two most important publications which will summarize the results of research...".

He also mentioned those numbers of samples (150 Iron Age, 550 Medieval, 22 Piasts).

Well, let's hope that 1/10 of them have enough coverage.

But I prefer to mentally prepare for a long time of waiting, you know, just in case:

Spoiler!

LOOOOOOOOOOOOL