Germans warn of disintegration of Bosnia and blame Serbs and Russians

[Jana]

Serbs are done. They aren't threat to anyone. Serbia/RS is demographically ruined, poor economy that would crack with new war. They had much bigger advantage in 90s and blew it.

That being said, other south Slav ethnicities are demographically dying as well.

Future of the Balkans belongs to Albanians and ony real possibility is great Albania. Other is a pipedream.

[Varda]

Serbs are done. They aren't threat to anyone. Serbia is demographically ruined, poor economy that would crack with new war. They had much bigger advantage in 90s and blew it.

That being said, other south Slav ethnicities are demographically dying as well.

Future of the Balkans belongs to Albanians and ony real possibility is great Albania. Other is a pipedream.

Serbia still has enough power to defeat Bosniaks or Albanians when NATO left Kosovo. In the previous several years Serbian army has made significant progress.

Except own superiority towards the Bosniaks and Albanians Serbia is only natural partner of Russia and even China in the Balkans. Russia (military) and China (economically) will be world leaders in the next years and decades.

If i am on your place i would be worried for Croatians. Your people is less numerous than Serbs in the former Yugoslavia, in BiH you go towards disappearing, global domination of USA/NATO as only power doesn't exist today etc.

[Jana]

Serbia still has enough power to defeat Bosniaks or Albanians when NATO left Kosovo. In the previous several years Serbian army has made significant progress.

Except own superiority towards the Bosniaks and Albanians Serbia is only natural partner of Russia and even China in the Balkans. Russia (military) and China (economically) will be world leaders in the next years and decades.

If i am on your place i would be worried for Croatians. Your people is less numerous than Serbs in the former Yugoslavia, in BiH you go towards disappearing, global domination of USA/NATO as only power doesn't exist today etc.

Yeah yeah, that's why Serbs work as seasonal workers in Croatia. Get real. Wars aren't for beggars.

[Incal]

As Machiavelli once wrote:

«States that rise unexpectedly, then, like all other things in nature which are born and grow rapidly, cannot leave their foundations and correspondencies fixed in such a way that the first storm will not overthrow them.»

[Dušan]

Serbs are done. They aren't threat to anyone. Serbia/RS is demographically ruined, poor economy that would crack with new war. They had much bigger advantage in 90s and blew it.

That being said, other south Slav ethnicities are demographically dying as well.

Future of the Balkans belongs to Albanians and ony real possibility is great Albania. Other is a pipedream.

Keep dreaming.

Our demographics are negative, but all surrounding nations are worse than us.

Bosnian Croats and Muslims have far worse decline in birth rates than Bosnian Serbs in last decade.

And especialy strong decline is among Albanians.


Interesting statistics - total births in 2010 vs 2020 - decline in percentage:

Serbia -9,77%
Croatia -17,33%

Bosnian Serbs -8,97%
Bosnian Muslims -25,12%
Bosnian Croats -26,58%

Albanians in Albania -17,57%
Albanians in Kosovo -36,47%






https://www.theapricity.com/forum/sh...=1#post7286295

[Dušan]

In the case of new war it would be enough to Serbs took Sarajevo from "Bosniaks", and they would capitulate. Sarajevo is alpha and omega for "Bosniaks."

This is fom Serbian speakers.
"Bosniak" intellectual Fatmir Alispahić say that "Bosniaks" can't win eventual new war, a new war leads "Bosniaks" to extinction, Bakir Itetbegović who want a new war with Serbs is enemy of "Bosniaks" etc.

It is Bosnian Muslim leaders who are speaking these days about war, and at the same time their population are afraid of the war, knowing how Serbia is armed.

We want freedom and independence of Republika Srpska, peaceful secesion and to get rid of all connections with Muslims and Croats.
Not to invade Muslim-Croat Federation.

[Jana]

Keep dreaming.

Our demographics are negative, but all surrounding nations are worse than us.

Bosnian Croats and Muslims have far worse decline in birth rates than Bosnian Serbs in last decade.

And especialy strong decline is among Albanians.


Interesting statistics - total births in 2010 vs 2020 - decline in percentage:

Serbia -9,77%
Croatia -17,33%

Bosnian Serbs -8,97%
Bosnian Muslims -25,12%
Bosnian Croats -26,58%

Albanians in Albania -17,57%
Albanians in Kosovo -36,47%




https://www.theapricity.com/forum/sh...=1#post7286295

Bosnian Serbs have oldest population in Bosnia as well as most sparsely populated land.
Albanians are only youthful native European population, significantly younger than Serbs and others on average, and their demography is still miles above yours.

I don't see great Bulgaria, Croatia or Serbia (or Romania) anytime soon, but great Albania yes.
And they are NATO members with improving standards, especially Albania proper.

And: Serbia has large Gypsy population, so take over-represented amount of birthrate for them.

[Dušan]

Bosnian Serbs have oldest population in Bosnia as well as most sparsely populated land.
Albanians are only youthful native European population, significantly younger than Serbs and other on average, and their demography is still miles above yours.

I don't see great Bulgaria, Croatia or Serbia (or Romania) anytime soon, but great Albania yes.

Percentage of Serbs among newborn population in Bosnia is rising in last decade.
Emigration of Bosnian Muslims and Croats are higher, and their drop in birth rates are higher than Serbian.

Albanian population is younger - but how many of them are in Switzerland, Germany etc, and still moving there.
It is indicative that all recently active Albanian forum members live abroad, not in Balkans.

[Jana]

Percentage of Serbs among newborn population in Bosnia is rising in last decade.
Emigration of Bosnian Muslims and Croats are higher, and their drop in birth rates are higher than Serbian.

Albanian population is younger - but how many of them are in Switzerland, Germany etc, and still moving there.
It is indicative that all recently active Albanian forum members live abroad, not in Balkans.

Percentage of Serbs among newborn population in Bosnia is rising in last decade.
Emigration of Bosnian Muslims and Croats are higher, and their drop in birth rates are higher than Serbian.

Albanian population is younger - but how many of them are in Switzerland, Germany etc, and still moving there.
It is indicative that all recently active Albanian forum members live abroad, not in Balkans.

I kind of doubt that thb. Bosnian Croats have lot of children on average, that's kind of stereotype about them. They do have high emigration numbers though (to Croatia and German speaking countries)
Not sure about Bosniaks. But Serbs probably emigrate less because of EU restrictions, that ended this year as far as I am aware.

I see Albanian element becoming dominant over Slavic one in future of the Balkans. Let's wait and see.

[Dušan]

I kind of doubt that thb. Bosnian Croats have lot of children on average, that's kind of stereotype about them. They do have high emigration numbers though (to Croatia and German speaking countries)
Not sure about Bosniaks. But Serbs probably emigrate less because of EU restrictions, that ended this year as far as I am aware.

I see Albanian element becoming dominant over Slavic one in future of the Balkans. Let's wait and see.

Of course that percentage of Serbs among newborn population in Bosnia is rising.

Here are the offical statistics.

Year / Total births in Muslim-Croat Federation / Total births in Republika Srpska / ratio

1996: 34,331 / 12,263 / 2.800
1997: 34,304 / 13,757 / 2.494
1998: 31,480 / 13,527 / 2.327
1999: 27,964 / 14,500 / 1.929
2000: 25,372 / 14,191 / 1.788
2001: 24,018 / 13,699 / 1.753
2002: 23,251 / 12,336 / 1.885
2003: 23,168 / 10,537 / 2.199
2004: 22,250 / 10,628 / 2.094
2005: 21,934 / 10,322 / 2.125
2006: 21,602 / 10,524 / 2.053
2007: 21,715 / 10,110 / 2.148
2008: 22,920 / 10,198 / 2.247
2009: 22,913 / 10,603 / 2.161
2010: 22,382 / 10,147 / 2.206
2011: 21,228 / 9,561 / 2.220
2012: 21,472 / 9,978 / 2.152
2013: 20,145 / 9,510 / 2.118
2014: 19,880 / 9,335 / 2.130
2015: 19,358 / 9,357 / 2.069
2016: 19,655 / 9,452 / 2.079
2017: 19,824 / 9,339 / 2.123
2018: 18,899 / 9,568 / 1.975
2019: 18,019 / 9,274 / 1.943
2020: 17,211 / 9,161 / 1.879


After the war, in 1996, Muslim-Croat Federation had 2.8 time more birth than Republika Srpska, last year only 1.88 time more.
Muslim-Croat decline is much higher than in Republika Srpska - their number are halved: 34,331 in 1996 and 17,211 in 2020.

I don't see Albanian element dominant in Balkans in future.
As you said, let's wait and see.