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both have low birth rates so r in decline
DNA samples from 3,000 customers.
India's Population - 1.38 billion (2020)
Dynamic migration history, ethnic and genetic diversity and a high degree of consanguinity contribute to the complex and heterogeneous nature of the Indian population. There are many known genetic diseases affecting different population subgroups and insufficient scientific resources to diagnose and treat them. Genomic data is sensitive in nature and public sharing of such data brings a fair share of ethical and legal concerns with it. Front Genet. 2020; 11: 753.
India may face a population implosion. 'You have a baby factory in the north and a jobs factory in the south.'
https://archive.is/YvzfbIndia has long been a byword for overpopulation, but this is about to change. According to a new national survey, India’s total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman will bear during her lifetime, has fallen to 2—below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time.
This does not mean that India’s population of 1.4 billion has begun to decline—yet. The country’s youthful demographics (the median age is 28) mean India will continue to grow until the middle of the century, when the population is expected to peak at 1.6 billion.
Nonetheless, India’s falling below replacement-level fertility—a feat China achieved in 1992—marks a major milestone. In a phone interview, Nicholas Eberstadt, an expert on global demographics at the American Enterprise Institute, points out that with India’s transition two-thirds of the world’s people now live in countries with fertility below replacement levels. The remaining third includes almost all of sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth continues to surge.
India’s demographics matter beyond its borders. Forecasters estimate that India will replace China as the world’s most populous nation, perhaps as early as 2027. Much of New Delhi’s diplomacy hinges on the fact that more than 1 in 6 people live in India. This makes India pivotal in solving global challenges ranging from pandemics to climate change and mass migration. After it gained independence in 1947, India’s soaring population—made possible by advances in medicine and disease control—seemed to doom it to poverty and hunger. Droughts in the mid-1960s raised the specter of famine.
“To oversimplify, you have a baby factory in the north and a jobs factory in the south,” says Mr. Eberstadt. “But there’s a mismatch in educational attainment between a rising cohort in the north and the needs of the economy emerging in the south.” Kerala, in the south, has a literacy rate of 96%. Bihar, in the north, is 71%.
EAST IS EAST [AND WEST IS WEST]: https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-m...en-11640289956
This is big news not just for India but, seeing that its 1.4bn people are nearly a fifth of humanity, for the planet. The number of Indians will still grow, because many young women have yet to reach child-bearing age. But lower fertility means the population will peak sooner and at a lower figure: not in 40 years at more than 1.7bn, as was widely predicted, but probably a decade earlier, at perhaps 1.6bn.
India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected
For the first time, Indian fertility has fallen below replacement level.
Problem … Solution … Problem: India’s population will start to collapse in two decades. It’s a matter of celebration – and concern
https://archive.is/OwQ5WMore babies were born in India in 2003 than any year before and after. Every year since then the number of live births has been falling consistently. Roughly 7 lakh fewer babies would have been born in 2021 than were born in 2003 – that’s 1,900 less kids born every day. The country witnessed another milestone in 2005. Fertility rate (average number of children born to a woman) fell below 3 that year. By 2019, that rate had slipped to 2 – well below the world average.
All these indicators point in the same direction – Indian family size is shrinking faster than most people think. It took only 14 years for the fertility rate to fall by 50% (from 3 to 2) in India, whereas in Bangladesh – globally acclaimed for birth control – a similar fall took 17 years.
Steep decline in fertility...
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A smaller population will solve many of India’s endemic problems, but it could create new ones too if the composition of population is not right. Compared to other countries with the same fertility rate, India’s infant mortality rate is higher and life expectancy is lower. That means the coming fall in population could turn into a collapse. India is also home to the highest number of underweight and stunted children. The prospect of India ageing before prospering to the levels of Western countries is real. India could be in a worse situation because its primary education and healthcare system is worse than China. A reason why India’s economic take-off after 1991 reforms was slower than China’s post-1978 take-off is the solid runway of public education and healthcare that Mao had created in China before Deng Xiaoping opened the economy. India had no such runway. Today, an average Chinese is 60% more productive than an Indian. Despite being better off than India the projected collapse in China’s productive population will hobble its economic future. The country’s imminent rise to the world’s largest economy will not last more than 10-15 years after which the US will re-emerge at the top. The relative immigration friendliness of the US and its multiculturalism will help it replenish its productive population despite a low fertility rate.
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https://archive.is/OwQ5W#selection-519.2-519.846
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