Your prediction regarding the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine

[Arūnas]

Poles took Moscow


4:02

[Insuperable]

Why do you ask me that? I never said anything like that.

Why not, are we chatting here or not? You said that the war in Iraq had to do with oil and profit to which I have agreed without saying anything. I then implied that this situation with Ukraine has to do with gas and profit. Bruh.

I don't know what is so confusing.

With two arbitrary examples (you quoted them and only them) out of many I was just answering your question about if I have any example for when the USA followed own interests (pocket or geopolitical) which were against European interests. I did not mention Iran. Iran and Israel is another very interesting topic, but it would derail this thread too much to fully go into that now.

You mentioned anti-Israeli military powers so I am just saying. Iran is the biggest enemy of Israel and always was. Nor Syria nor Libya nor Saudi Arabia were that big threat to Israel. Especially now. European countries might see foreign civil wars as a threat because they don't know how to close their borders.

I don't think it would really be feasible to import liquefied gas from the US.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/comm...gh-2022-01-06/

Spoiler!

Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high

HOUSTON/LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Sky-high European demand drove U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to a record in December, Refinitiv data showed, with winter supply worries set to sustain orders for the fuel.

About half of the record U.S. LNG volumes shipped last month went to Europe, up from 37% earlier in 2021, data from Refinitiv and the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.

The gains reflected soaring demand for the home heating and industrial fuel that pushed prices in Europe and Asia to record highs. The United States has ample and cheap supplies as its shale oil and gas boom in the last two decades led to domestic production that has exceeded U.S. demand by about 10%.

Vessel tracking data showed about 7.15 million tonnes of LNG were shipped last month on 106 vessels, up 16% compared to 6.14 million tonnes on 89 vessels the same month a year ago. That topped the previous record of 6.51 million tonnes set in May.

Dutch gas prices, the European benchmark, have cooled since late December removing their premium to Asia. On Wednesday, the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) price for Asia spot gas was $34.19 per million British thermal units, a premium of about $4 to Europe.

Two LNG cargoes originally destined for Europe have been re-routed this month, people familiar with the matter said, with one heading to Asia. That is a reversal to late last year when at least 10 cargoes heading for Asia were re-routed to Europe attracted by the price differential. read more

"LNG diversions from Asia are a useful stop-gap measure but are not a sustainable substitute for stable pipeline supplies," Wei Xiong, senior analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, said.

LNG demand in Asia may jump in January, halting further diversions to Europe, she added.

"Prices are volatile right now," said Reid I'Anson, senior commodity analyst at data provider Kpler.

While LNG prices being higher in Asia than in Europe lowers the likelihood of a new record for U.S. exports to Europe, flows could shift again if temperatures tumble there, I'Anson said.

Ports in Britain, the Netherlands and Belgium have around 30 LNG tankers scheduled for delivery this month, with at least 13 arriving from the United States.

CHILLING

While the United States has plentiful natural gas, its processing and chilling capacity is limited. Gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants in December hit a record 12.2 billion cubic feet per day, about the maximum processing capacity.

There were no LNG processing plants approved in the United States last year, while nearly a dozen plants proposed in past years are still awaiting financial commitments. read more

Spending on new LNG projects fell in recent years as trade tensions between the United States and China rose and more recently as gas prices fell during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia supplies 40% of Europe's gas demands. I think all of it through Ukraine. Could be wrong. Russia is building a second pipeline called Nord Stream 2. And of course the US is threating Russia with it in the case of war. But since Russia has no interest in war I wonder how are they going to obstruct it.
Ukraine crisis: Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be axed, US warns

While for Europe NATO is obsolete and a waste of money, for the US the NATO is a form of investment. A form of investment which is paid in half by others. At the same time the US says how other countries need to increase their military budget.

Gas makes 20% of Europe's energy demands of which Russia supplies 40%. Analysts predict that in near future gas will make 40% of Europe's energy demands. I guess someone plans for the future.

[Peterski]

I think it is going to begin any day now, better start stockpiling (!):

[atosad]

there will be nothing there. Ukraine is just an excuse for Russia to knock out additional advantages from the United States when they are fiddling with China...Ukraine itself is a burdensome burden for anyone who wants to annex it. There is nothing in it that is of critical interest to Russia, no matter what she and her current Western sponsors come up with.

[Arhat]

At most, they will send troops to DNR/lnr to force Ukraine to accept the Minsk agreement. Russia could knock out the Ukrainian army in a matter of days but the sanctions and economic costs for stabilizing the already failed Ukrainian economy would not really be worth it.

[PAGANE]

Today, each of the members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation expressed his opinion on the official addresses of the leaders of the two unrecognized republics of Donetsk and Lugansk for their official recognition as independent entities. Earlier, Russia's parliament gave carte blanche to the president, today the Security Council also gave carte blanche to the president. Russia will soon recognize the independence of the two republics by the end of the day or tomorrow, and a co-operation and security agreement will be signed with them. This means that they will become members on an equal footing with Kazakhstan, Belarus, Uzbekistan and other countries in the post-Soviet space, which in turn gives them the right to turn to the allies for military and humanitarian aid, for peacekeepers.

[Peterski]

And there is a full scale war.

Only I predicted it correctly.

[Dick]

And there is a full scale war.

Only I predicted it correctly.

and France has surrendered yet again

[Art23]

Putin will get nothing and Russia will collapse economically.

[GDDR6]

Putin lies next to Lenin in the mausoleum.