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Habsburg Empire could have been saved if...
I have read a very interesting article in a hungarian historical magazine called Rubicon. They have analyzed an old popular hungarian urban legend that says the Habsburg Empire could have been saved, if Count István Tisza stays alive in 1918.
Who was István Tisza? He was a very catholic conservative, hungarian ultranationalist politician and the most faithful Habsburg loyalist in Hungary, he was the president of Hungarian Kingdom at this time. He came from a very rich aristocrat family, and the influential Tisza had very good relationship with the House of Habsburg and also with the hungarian conservatives who saw him as a very strong authoritarian leader. He represented the dualist Monarchy, its golden age and the hungarian nationalist politics (including magyarization, great-power policy) in Hungary. But at same time he became the most hated person at 1918 in Hungary, because Tisza also represented the destruction, millions of victims, and the total defeat in the WW1. So in 1918 a group of hungarian social democrat unknown person shot him down in his own house, but what if Tisza stays alive and survive the assassination?
Tisza's letter to Habsburg Emperror in 1918: "I'm afraid that we can't do anything until the prospect of a peace, because the fate of Empire is in others hands. I want the despair away from me and to keep my mental health to be useful if you needs me, but seeing the sitution i would be a flame in the powder keg."
The hungarian social democrats opinion on Tisza: "Wild, fool from Geszt" (Geszt is a city where Tisza was born)
István Lendvai, hungarian fascist opinion on Tisza: "He was the star of curse, who pulled the hungarian nation into the death, swamps of Piave"
In 1918, the Habsurg Empire has collapsed: total defeat in the WW1, economic crisis, national revolutions, etc. In this chaotic situation the most significant force was the Hungarian Royal Army inside the Empire with 1 million soldier, but this huge army existed only in paper. In the reality many of these soldiers belonged to various nationalities like serbs, slovaks, romanians who deserted, so the real military power of Hungary was much less and it was very questionable that these nationlities would have fight for the Monarchy. At same time austrians kicked Habsburgs out of Austria, so basically only the hungarian conservative elite wanted to keep the Monarchy and the Habsburg Throne.
Tisza had plans to defend the Monarchy, according to him, the most important areas of Empire was Czechia (industry), Croatia (sea trade, ports), and Transylvania because the mountains were good defense line in East. He would never have let these areas to separate, unlike Bosnia, West Ukraine and South Poland were not so important for him, he also wanted an anti bolshevik-russian coalition with Poland, so he would have give these northern polish and ukrainian areas to Poland as a gesture.
The most dangerous enemies were the serbian, romanian and czech army that threatened the Habsburg Empire. The serbian territorial claims subject to such non important areas like Bosnia, or some parts of south Hungary or Austrian Dalmatia where serbs were majority, so it would be acceptable for Tisza, but he wanted anyhow to keep Croatia in the personal union (because of sea ports) but croats wanted independence from Hungary.
At same time czechs invaded North Hungary (Slovakia), but the hungarian counter attack kicked them out of East Slovakia very easly what surprised the hungarian government, because they considered the czech army very strong.
In East the situation was much worse, the romanians army seemed unstoppable, if Tisza would have been the leader and not the communist Hungarian Red Army, then the hungarian army would have been much bigger for sure, because many hungarian soldier deserted from the Red Army because they didnt want support the spreading of communism, nevertheless stopping romanians was still very questionable in this alternate scenarion too.
When austrians claimed some parts of West Hungary (Burgenland), it caused the biggest indignation in Hungary, because they were also in losing side and the hungarian paramilitary units defended Burgenland in 1919. Tisza needed Austria to restore the Habsburg Empire, there was a plane that the Hungarian Army invades Austria very quickly to punish them because of claiming West Hungary and dethroning of Habsburgs. At this time the Habsburg had much better relationship with hungarian elitethan they had in Austria. In this alternate scenario the centre of Habsburgs would have been in Budapest, eastern capital of Empire, instead of Wien.
What was the opinion of Entente great powers?
The french point of view was destroying the Habsburg Empire, and they were the most influental power in Versailles.
Americans belived in independent european nation states, they would have not support the idea of imperial restauration.
British were not neceserally against the Monarchy, if it would be hungarian oriented but they afraid that german or Habsburg oriented Empire will always be ally of Germany.
Italians supported the hungarian territorial claims, because they wanted a strong ally against Austria and Yugoslavia, but just as independent Hungary, they were against any Habsburg restauration.
So summary, if Tisza survives the assassination, it wouldn't have changed anything. He could have not save the Habsburg Empire for sure, the reasons:
-Tisza was the most hated person not only among the non hungarians but among hungarians too.
-the Royal Hungarian Army was not enough to keep the Empire alone.
-lack of western great power support.
-almost every single nationality wanted own independent state.
-Habsburgs completely lost their hegemony in Austria. If Hungary invades Austria in 1919 to keep them inside the Empire by force, it would have been too complicated to create a military dictatorship and the relationship between the both nation would have very spoiled.
This "Tisza saves the Empire" urban legend is debunked according to this magazine.
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