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Thread: PERPETUAL WAR? KYIV WON'T SURRENDER EASILY

  1. #51
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    Question FP This Week: Can Ukraine win a protracted war?

    More than one year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is far from achieving its war aims and Kyiv continues to fight on. But what does a protracted conflict look like? And what happens on the battlefield if support in the West starts to wane?

    China, Ukraine, and How Biden Plans to Balance Both

    What the United States Does in Ukraine Won’t Matter in Taiwan: What the U.S. government may or may not do in one region of the world tells us next to nothing about what it might do in another, argue Rajan Menon and Daniel R. DePetris.
    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


  2. #52
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    Default Ukraine signals counterattack to come 'very soon'

    Ukraine signals counterattack to come 'very soon' as Wagner mercenaries suffer large losses

    This has been CNBC’s live blog covering updates on the war in Ukraine. [Follow the latest updates here.]

    Ukraine’s most senior ground forces commander sent a strong signal Thursday that the country’s armed forces will launch a much-anticipated counteroffensive “very soon” to take back lost territory. Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the Wagner Group of mercenaries fighting in Donetsk were losing manpower, equipment and “considerable strength” and that “very soon” his forces would take advantage of the “opportunity” that presented. The comments come just as Russian forces are seen to be losing momentum in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Separately, the head of the Wagner Group of mercenary forces in Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigoin, denied a Bloomberg report suggesting that he is preparing to reduce Wagner’s involvement in the conflict after a major dispute with Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
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  3. #53
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    Default Putin nuclear plan

    Quote Originally Posted by Wunder-Zeichen View Post

    Quartz: Russia said it'll put nuclear weapons in Belarus. The planned placement of the short-range weapons comes after the UK provided uranium-based ammunition to Ukraine.

    Ukraine's government on Sunday called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to "counter the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail" after Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed plans to station tactical atomic weapons in Belarus. One Ukrainian official said that Russia "took Belarus as a nuclear hostage."

    KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s government on Sunday called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to “counter the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail” after Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed plans to station tactical atomic weapons in Belarus. One Ukrainian official said that Russia “took Belarus as a nuclear hostage.”

    Further heightening tensions, an explosion deep inside Russia wounded three people Sunday. Russian authorities blamed a Ukrainian drone for the blast, which damaged residential buildings in a town just 175 kilometers (110 miles) south of Moscow. Russia has said the plan to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus comes in response to the West’s increasing military support for Ukraine. Putin announced the plan in a television interview that aired on Saturday, saying it was triggered by a U.K. decision this past week to provide Ukraine with armor-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium.

    Putin argued that by deploying its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Russia was following the lead of the United States. He noted that Washington has nuclear weapons based in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. “We are doing what they have been doing for decades, stationing them in certain allied countries, preparing the launch platforms and training their crews,” he said.
    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


  4. #54
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    Lightbulb Strategic Impatience


    History has not been kind to predictions of short wars that turned out to be protracted conflicts.
    Russia’s war in Ukraine is no different, Raphael S. Cohen and Gian Gentile write.

    Of course, no one really wants long, grueling wars—but the consequences of impatience can be worse. Americans have long been fixated on the idea of the short, decisive war. At the start of the American Civil War, Washington gentry traveled to watch the First Battle of Bull Run—to partake of a spectacle they presumed would soon end. In 1898, U.S. Secretary of State John Hay expected the Spanish-American War to be a “splendid little war,” culminating in a quick victory for the newly emerging global power. As U.S. troops neared the Yalu River in November 1950 during the Korean War, Gen. Douglas MacArthur promised that his soldiers would “eat Christmas dinner at home.” In 2003, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld predicted that the Iraq war “certainly isn’t going to last any longer than [five months].” Multiple administrations underestimated the timeline of the war in Afghanistan. A similar obsession with short wars colors the coverage of the Ukraine war today. In 2022, as it became clear Russia was about to invade Ukraine, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, the U.S. intelligence community, and most outside experts predicted a Russian victory in a matter of days. As the Russian advance sagged, a handful of commentators then predicted a speedy Ukrainian victory. Many more have judged the war unwinnable and called for a quick end through negotiations. The media, for its part, has labeled the war a stalemate during just about every lull in fighting. History has not been kind to any of these predictions. The Civil War lasted four years and remains one of the bloodiest conflicts in U.S. history. The Spanish-American War devolved into a yearslong insurgency in the Philippines. MacArthur’s push towards the Yalu triggered Chinese intervention, which prolonged the conflict by years, not months. The Iraq War lasted an order of magnitude longer than Rumsfeld predicted, and Afghanistan turned into Washington’s longest war. Today, the war in Ukraine has not resulted in a quick win for either side—but it is not a stalemate, either, as the battlefield continues to evolve. The number of truly quick wars in U.S. history have been few and far between.
    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


  5. #55
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    Default The Latest: War in Ukraine

    New York Times: Finland Deals a Blow to Putin as It Enters NATO

    The Nordic country officially became NATO’s 31st member today, expanding the alliance in a strategic setback for Putin.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/04...cae9dcdf5d3458


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    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


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    Default US-CHINA TENSIONS GROW

    US-CHINA TENSIONS GROW OVER TAIWAN
    AS UKRAINE WAR RAGES ON


    US very 'confident' it can protect interests in South China Sea as China surrounds Taiwan

    The United States is monitoring China's actions 'closely'

    The U.S. says it is very confident that it can protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific region, even as China ramps up aggression and surrounds Taiwan. Taiwan's military is on high alert as Chinese forces have surrounded the self-governed island in retaliation to President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visit to the U.S.

    Fox News: The U.S. is very confident it can protect American interests in the Indo-Pacific as the Chinese military surrounds Taiwan, the White House said Thursday. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby offered the assessment to reporters during a Monday briefing. China is conducting extensive and ongoing military drills around the self-governed island throughout the past week, going so far as to simulate strikes on the island this past weekend. "How does the U.S. see these latest Chinese military exercises and is the U.S. confident that Taiwan and help from the U.S. could continue to deter China from a military solution?" a reporter asked. "Their saber-rattling as we call it was a lot more than sabers, and it's more than rattling." "We're monitoring the exercises closely, as you might imagine," Kirby responded, adding that they were a needless reaction to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's recent visit to the U.S. that sparked angry warnings from China. "We're very comfortable and confident that we have in place, in the region, sufficient resources and capabilities to protect our national security interests in the Indo-Pacific," he continued. "I would add … there's no reason for tensions across the Taiwan Strait to devolve into any kind of conflict."
    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


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    Default FP: The Russia Whisperer


    For decades, Finland spurned calls to join NATO even as it deepened security cooperation with the alliance outside its borders, effectively telling the alliance it was fine where it was. That all changed rapidly after Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, when public support in Finland skyrocketed from some 20 percent to nearly 80 percent. From there, Finland’s government formally announced it wanted in on the alliance while neighboring Sweden followed suit. The war in Ukraine deeply shocked Finns, whose own history of Russian invasion profoundly shaped Finland’s foreign policy for decades. During the Winter War of 1939-1940, an outgunned and outmanned Finland beat back a massive Soviet military invasion orchestrated by then-Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, and ultimately only lost around 10 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union. Hautala sees many parallels between the Winter War and the current war in Ukraine. Putin, like Stalin in Finland, initially expected his war to take a matter of weeks, if not days. The Ukrainians, like the Finns with Stalin, proved him wrong. In both cases, the Kremlin’s military paid a devastating price. “I think Stalin was, prior to the Winter War, he was a realist,” Hautala said. “Then, when the war started, he became a maximalist, so he wanted to have all of Finland. But only when that proved to be too costly and too risky, he agreed to peace.”

    While the United States, Europe, and its other allies around the world have backed Ukraine with military aid and sanctioned Russia to the hilt, Ukraine has struggled to get other major players—namely China, India, and key economic powerhouses in Africa and Southeast Asia—on board. Indonesia bucked Western pressure to invite Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to a recent G-20 summit it hosted. India is still importing Russian oil despite pleas from the West. Last month, Lavrov launched a charm offensive tour of Africa, at least attempting to position Russia as a new great-power advocate for the global south. During Hautala’s years of dealing with Russia in the upper echelons of the Finnish foreign ministry, including his time as ambassador to Moscow, he saw two major schools of thought take root in Russia’s policymaking elite that lay the groundwork for this new permanent shift away from the West.

    “If I look at the past 10 years during which I’ve been really actively involved with the Russians, one of the features I saw that was growing all the time was this obsession with history and borders,” he said.

    “The second was this obsession with the idea that a new multipolar world is taking shape, that big wheels are turning, that the West is in decline and there will be a new power equilibrium in the world that will favor Russia.”

    He referred to this obsession as a “geopolitical power dream”—one that many Westerners dismissed as merely rhetoric on Putin’s part, deployed simply to score some political points at home. Sure, Putin could talk a big game: about how Russia deserves to be a great power again, how the West should back off of trying to court countries like Ukraine and Belarus because they belong in Russia’s “sphere of influence,” how the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a “tragedy.” But that didn’t mean he’d actually try to remake an ersatz Russian empire by force, would he?
    I am become Death, destroyer of worlds


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    Default

    Lavrov: Russia is ready

    Russia is ready to consider proposals from African and Latin American countries to resolve the ongoing Ukrainian crisis.

    This was stated today by the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, at a press conference after a conversation with his Belarusian counterpart, Sergey Aleynik. He stated that the Belarusian minister reminded that there were other initiatives, such as the initiatives of the Brazilian and South African presidents, Lavrov said, reports TASS. "In both cases, we responded to the initiatives of Latin American and African friends that we were ready to consider any of their proposals that were motivated by a sincere desire to help stabilize the world order. But so far, unlike our neighbors China, we haven't seen any documents on the matter whether from Brazilians or Africans," he added. According to him, Russia has confirmed its readiness to maintain contacts with all interested parties. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that the governments of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to receive an African delegation, whose goal is to find a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian conflict. He added that he discussed this possibility with the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Volodimir Zelensky, who agreed to receive the African delegation in Moscow and Kyiv. The peace initiative is being developed by the leaders of Egypt, Zambia, Comoros, Republic of Congo, Senegal, Uganda and South Africa. These countries are now trying to convince UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and other countries, including the United States and Great Britain, to support the African initiative.
    Jupiter in Aquarius (Astro-Seek): "They have to make the first steps with their belief on their own, only then they can offer it to others. And then, by mixing the beliefs of other people, they will develop a system of belief that suits the goals and purpose of the whole group. Their idea is that if they continue like this step-by-step, all mankind will eventually share a common ideology. They see God as a world religion."

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    Thumbs down The Great Reset

    THE GREAT RESET

    WAR IS PEACE
    FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
    IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH


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    Jupiter in Aquarius (Astro-Seek): "They have to make the first steps with their belief on their own, only then they can offer it to others. And then, by mixing the beliefs of other people, they will develop a system of belief that suits the goals and purpose of the whole group. Their idea is that if they continue like this step-by-step, all mankind will eventually share a common ideology. They see God as a world religion."

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