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A NEW GREAT GAME. ALL OVER AGAIN.
New game. The fringes of Russia's former empire are fraying as Central Asian states hope to choose their own friends and play them off against one another, FP’s Lynne O’Donnell writes.
Once the heart of a “great game” played out by the Russian and British empires in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Central Asia is again a strategic jewel being fought over by the Big Three, and some smaller players, as the tectonic plates of global influence shift. Russia’s hold over Central Asian publics is slipping, China is still struggling to overcome its own missteps, and the United States is trying to charge for the umpteenth time unto the breach. The countries, collectively known as the Stans—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—offer plenty of potential rewards in this renewed global tussle. The whole region—especially Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—is rich in reserves of oil, natural gas, uranium, and other critical minerals. That alone attracted China’s clumsy courtship over the last few decades. But since the fall of the U.S.-backed republic in neighboring Afghanistan and the return of the Taliban in 2021, the satellite states of the former Soviet Union have become the West’s bulwark against a resurgence in terrorism and jihad. Add in China’s ambitions for new transshipment routes to Europe for its manufactured output—Beijing’s Belt and Road initiative is literally called the new Silk Road—and Turkey’s plans to renew historic cultural and linguistic ties for security and trade deals, and it’s easy to see why all side roads are leading to Central Asia.
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