"Croatian-like" Genetics in Southwestern Ukraine and Southeastern Poland

[Abriekman]

Genetic modeling using Global25 shows that Southwestern Ukrainians and Southern Poles share a genetic profile that is around 25-45% "Croatian-like", suggesting Balkanic influences.


Global25


Ukrainian Lviv Average

Target: Ukrainian_Lviv

Distance: 0.6336% / 0.00633560 | R3P

63.0 Ukrainian_Sumy

31.0 Croat

6.0 Croat_Bosnia


Southern Polish

Target: Polish:S_Polish-1

Distance: 1.6164% / 0.01616445 | R3P

62.8 Ukrainian_Rivne

24.0 Croat_Bosnia

13.2 German


There aren't many Southern Polish samples on G25, although I had my Polish parent tested and their results show that genetic profile. This suggests that part of Southern Poles share this genetic profile.


Target: Parent_(Polish_Eastern_Kresy)

Distance: 2.3656% / 0.02365620 | R3P

57.2 Ukrainian_Rivne

23.8 Croat_Dalmatia

19.0 Bosniak_Croatia



In this thread, let's discuss some potential explanations for this.


Theory 1: Carpathian Rusyns and Gorals


The Carpathian Mountain region straddling southern Poland, western Ukraine and eastern Slovakia has long been inhabited by ethnic groups like Rusyns and Gorals. If Rusyns/Gorals mixed with the wider populations of Southern Poles and Western Ukrainians, it could partially explain the affinity to Western Balkanic populations.

There were likely instances of intermarriage and gene flow between these Carpathian ethnic groups and the wider populations of Southern Poles and Western Ukrainians. For example, Rusyns living in the Polish and Ukrainian territories of the Carpathians may have integrated with local populations to some degree. This could have transmitted their significantly Carpatho-Balkan admixed genetic profile, resulting in the genetic influences seen today.



Theory 2: Austrian settlers from southern Habsburg lands


Austrians from southern parts of the Habsburg Empire did settle in southern Poland and western Ukraine (Galicia) to some extent during the late 18th and 19th centuries. If these Southern Austrian settlers carried a genetic signature interpreted as mainly "Croat/Bosnian-like", it could account for a portion of the modeled results.

This includes the Josephine colonization promoted by Emperor Joseph II in the late 18th century. Josephine colonists, many from southern Austria, were ethnic Germans who received privileges to settle in the region.

These Josephine colonists, along with other Austrian settlers and officials, could have carried genetic influences that we see while modelling Southern Polish and Southwest Ukrainian populations.



Theory 3: Influence of ancient Vlach populations


Vlachs could have intermarried with locals in Galicia over centuries, leaving a genetic trace that modeling picks up as an "Western Balkanic-like" influence on present-day Southern Poles and Western Ukrainians.

The Vlach explanation is questionable given the genetic profile of actual Vlach populations. Most Vlachs on G25 are genetically similar to Mainland Greeks, with significant Balkan and eastern Mediterranean influences. In contrast, the southern admixture seen in Southern Poles and Western Ukrainians seems to be more broadly western Balkan in nature.





Any thoughts?

[smd555]

Any thoughts?

Yes. I am more than sure that the "southern" admixture in the Carpathian populations already existed at least from the late Prague culture and is not connected with the Vlach admixture. It is possible that the Proto-Slavs were just like that.

[Abriekman]

Yes. I am more than sure that the "southern" admixture in the Carpathian populations already existed at least from the late Prague culture and is not connected with the Vlach admixture. It is possible that the Proto-Slavs were just like that.

Maybe, possibly White Croats were one of these more "southern" North Slavic tribes, but to be honest I think that that so-called "Vlach" or "White Croat" genetic influence, or we can just call it "Carpatho-Balkan" admixture, is strongly shaped by the historical borders of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

In descendants of Slavs living in the empire, this influence is noticeable, while outside the empire, it is usually almost negligible as you can see on the PCA below:

[smd555]

Maybe, possibly White Croats were one of these more "southern" North Slavic tribes, but to be honest I think that that so-called "Vlach" or "White Croat" genetic influence, or we can just call it "Carpatho-Balkan" admixture, is strongly shaped by the historical borders of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

In descendants of Slavs living in the empire, this influence is noticeable, while outside the empire, it is usually almost negligible as you can see on the PCA below:

It doesn't say anything. Austria simply geographically captured the Carpathians, which already had a population with its own specific genetics. And by the way, if we take the territory of western Ukraine, which was part of Austria-Hungary, then not all lands are included in the "Carpathian" genetic cluster there. This is mainly the valley of the Dniester, Prut and Carpathians. The north of Lviv and Ternopil regions is closer to Volyn genetically. The center of Lviv and Ternopil regions is approximately intermediate. In short, no matter how hard it is, everything on the territory of Ukraine converges to the range of White Croats.

[Abriekman]

Two Polish results on Eurogenes K36 - one is from Galicia, the other from Vinnytsa region

Galicia_Polish

Distance to: Galicia_Polish
6.27508566 Carpathian_Rusyns
7.15184592 Ukrainian_Lviv
7.25622491 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia
8.17161551 Slovak_2
8.91136914 Czech_Moravia
8.92572126 Croatian
8.94422160 Polish_South
9.03912053 Czech_Bohemia
9.38995208 German_Brandenburg_outlier(Beeskow)
9.47106119 Bosnian
9.48461913 Moldova_North
9.53256524 Slovak
9.54562203 Ukrainian
9.54781650 Hungarian
9.86237801 Slovenian
9.87785402 Polish_Upper_Silesia
10.04605893 Polish_SE_Carpathia
10.46910216 Croat_Gorski_Kotar
10.56630967 Austrian_Carinthia
10.79469314 Czech
10.83535417 Moldova_Centre
10.96309719 Polish
11.07073168 Ukrainian_Zhitomir
11.66730903 Polish_2
11.90385232 Ukrainian_Rivne

2-way oracle

5.079 Galicia_Polish = 94% Carpathian_Rusyns + 6% Darginian
5.212 Galicia_Polish = 94% Carpathian_Rusyns + 6% Tabasaran
5.659 Galicia_Polish = 94% Carpathian_Rusyns + 6% Kalash
5.709 Galicia_Polish = 93% Carpathian_Rusyns + 7% Crimean_Tatar
5.757 Galicia_Polish = 82% Carpathian_Rusyns + 18% Bosnian
5.773 Galicia_Polish = 97% Carpathian_Rusyns + 3% Armenian_Hemsheni
5.788 Galicia_Polish = 96% Carpathian_Rusyns + 4% Turkish_Balikesir
5.791 Galicia_Polish = 73% Croatian + 27% Polish_Sudovia
5.794 Galicia_Polish = 58% Croatian + 42% Ukrainian_Zhitomir
5.818 Galicia_Polish = 96% Carpathian_Rusyns + 4% Turkish_Istanbul



Vinnytsa_Polish

Distance to: Vinnytsa_Polish
5.32762611 Carpathian_Rusyns
6.04175471 Ukrainian_Lviv
6.63384504 Ukrainian_Zakarpattia
7.52444682 German_Brandenburg_outlier(Beeskow)
7.70320712 Polish_South
7.79571677 Ukrainian
7.83904331 Polish_SE_Carpathia
8.35953348 Slovak_2
8.79766446 Polish_Upper_Silesia
9.17927557 Slovak
9.28976857 Czech_Bohemia
9.40540270 Czech_Moravia
9.69151175 Ukrainian_Rivne
9.72595497 Ukrainian_Zhitomir
9.88987361 Polish
10.02853928 Polish_2
10.11212638 Ukrainian_Sumi
10.22366862 Croatian
10.39503728 Slovenian
10.42948225 Moldova_North
10.44378763 Hungarian
10.58480515 Ukrainian_Dnipro
10.73164014 Ukrainian_Chernihiv
10.94920088 Austrian_Carinthia
10.96668136 Bosnian

2-way oracle

5.004 Vinnytsa_Polish = 75% Carpathian_Rusyns + 25% German_Brandenburg_outlier(Beeskow)
5.119 Vinnytsa_Polish = 93% Carpathian_Rusyns + 7% Lithuanian
5.144 Vinnytsa_Polish = 94% Carpathian_Rusyns + 6% Lithuanian_2
5.149 Vinnytsa_Polish = 92% Carpathian_Rusyns + 8% Polish_Sudovia
5.183 Vinnytsa_Polish = 91% Carpathian_Rusyns + 9% Russian_Bryansk
5.195 Vinnytsa_Polish = 91% Carpathian_Rusyns + 9% Ukrainian_Cossack
5.207 Vinnytsa_Polish = 93% Carpathian_Rusyns + 7% Russian_Yaroslavl
5.239 Vinnytsa_Polish = 92% Carpathian_Rusyns + 8% Russian_Kaluga
5.259 Vinnytsa_Polish = 96% Carpathian_Rusyns + 4% Latvian_2
5.265 Vinnytsa_Polish = 95% Carpathian_Rusyns + 5% Russian_Pskov


Both seem to be extremely close to modern Carpathian Ruthenians