what is future of Moldova?

[Victor]

And what about transnistria and gagauzia and the pro-russia\anti unionist sentiment there is in parts of Moldova? How do you see that resolved?

They should never become Romania, both meaningless for them and us such a variant. Basarabia pamant Romanesc, Transnistria pamant Rusesc.

[Brás Garcia de Mascarenhas]

I don't think there are valid parallels with the reunification of Germany. Here's some reasons why:

1. Relative size of the economy:
* in 1989, East German economy was 15% of the West German economy (nominal GDP)
* in 2022, Rep of Moldova economy is 5% of the Romanian economy (nominal GDP)
This means that relatively fewer money need to be spent by Romania to generate growth in Moldova than West Germany in East Germany.

2. People proabably don't remember, but East German economy collapsed in 1990 due to the break-up of the communist trade block. This is the reason why reunification was done at a fast pace, in the terms dictated by the West, but also at a higher cost for West Germany (which brought resentment on both sides). In contrast, 30 years later, Moldovan economy has already transitioned to capitalism. There is no impending economic collapse in Moldova, and so the unification cost would be smaller.

3. The young (below 30) in both East and West Germany considered the other as foreign. This is quite the opposite in the case of Moldova, where the young associates more and more with the Romanian culture. In Romania, both young and old consider Moldovans as Romanian, in vast majority.

4. Bringing East Germany to West German levels is harder than bringing Moldova to Romanian levels, for the simple reason that Germany has the highest level of development in Europe (once we exclude the European economies that depend on oil or tax evading schemes). Romania is far below that, which makes it a much more realistic target.

An excerpt from a brief analysis by the Center for Eastern Studies on a possible union:

"It is estimated that in the event of Moldova joining the EU, Romania would have to spend around €35 billion over the first five years alone on a wide range of adaptations (including infrastructure and administration) of the territory of present-day Moldova. Although support for reunification ranges between 70 and 80% in Romania, opinion polls also show an unwillingness to bear its financial costs. Romanian politicians tend to rhetorically support the idea, but do not put forward a specific plan for its implementation."

Source: https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje...cation-romania

This is a very superficial analysis without much data, but the tendency is always for these kinds of estimates to end up costing more than they originally projected. Absorbing a new territory (which is in reality a sovereign state with all its logistics, bureaucracy and dynamics) always entails immense challenges. The fact that East Germany's economy represents 15% of West Germany's does not portray what is actually spent annually on subsidies and funds, which amount to almost 40% of Germany's budget so in an optimistic scenario Moldova could account for around 12%-15% of Romania's budget (which is huge). I can even draw another parallel, not exactly identical but touching on some of the same points: Russia's annexation of Crimea. We can say that at a strategic level it is very advantageous to have control of the peninsula, but on the other hand it is a fact that since its annexation Crimea has become a drain on Kremlin funding, being a complete budgetary burden.

In my opinion, I think the best scenario for Moldova would be to remain independent and join the European Union (after fulfilling the goals and criteria for accession). Small states, when well managed, can progress swiftly and with less bureaucracy. I read your idea of transferring factories to Moldova, I think the future of Moldova would be more about becoming a tech hub like other small countries have successfully done (Ireland\Estonia). Moldova for its size will never be a big industrial and agricultural nation like Romania, it has to bet on education, services and innovative start ups. Even Romania is trying to become the Silicon Valley of the Balkans.

[Aspirin]

Aspirin, I want to ask you, as a citizen of Republic of Moldova (who knows things from inside), what's your take on this? Do you see Moldova joining EU and NATO?

I don't want to lost my time with this thread, especially after Georgian and Russian animals ruined it. People already know my position.

[Victor]

I don't want to lost my time with this thread, especially after Georgian and Russian animals ruined it. People already know my position.

None are animals, just dont exaggerate your own meaning, once I emotionally named you a Gypsy, you aren't one clearly, let's behave like grown up people. Georgians are not "animals" aswell.

[Aspirin]

None are animals, just dont exaggerate your own meaning, once I emotionally named you a Gypsy, you aren't one clearly, let's behave like grown up people. Georgians are not "animals" aswell.

If behave like an animal, it's an animal.

[Cybele]

Now mostly all those who reside in Moldova won't be against Unirea.

According to some polls, around 40% of Moldovans would be pro union. And in Romania 31% would agree with it, if there was a referendum the next day. And 33% if the union would take place, one day in the future.

I believe only if some bigger event will happen (like fear of an invasion), the population of both countries would maybe become more pro unionist. But still, this would be forced and artificial union.

[Cybele]

People already know my position.

Alright. Fair enough.

[Blondie]

I dont understand this GDP oriented thinking. The nation is not question of GDP or money, but family is family, poor members are also part of family tat belong to each other in good times or bad times.
The german unification was not qestion of GDP, but it was moral and national thing, and everyone is supported it, right and left. Family is more important than any money or GDP, this financial oriented mindset reminds me of prostitutes.

[Dušan]

I dont understand this GDP oriented thinking. The nation is not question of GDP or money, but family is family, poor members are also part of family tat belong to each other in good times or bad times.
The german unification was not qestion of GDP, but it was moral and national thing, and everyone is supported it, right and left. Family is more important than any money or GDP, this financial oriented mindset reminds me of prostitutes.

Well said.

[Ugo]

None are animals, just dont exaggerate your own meaning, once I emotionally named you a Gypsy, you aren't one clearly, let's behave like grown up people. Georgians are not "animals" aswell.

Love this song. Since childhood, I associated Romanians with gypsies and Moldovans.